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The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby yesplease » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 02:05:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'S')ure it has a timescale. The Earth as a habitable planet won't be around for more than a billion years give or take, so planning beyond that in terms of it isn't very useful and as such we do have a time scale.
OK, a billion years, then, if that makes you happy. Let's plan on sustainability for a billion years. We're a billion light years away from that, right now.
More like a million light years away from that relative to the center of the galaxy. Course, we could have far less time than this depending on our orbit through the galactic arms at least wrt known and significant TEOTWAWKI events.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'S')imply not considering something is not the same as acting something is infinite.
Sure it is. Where is the practical difference? It's not the same as actively believing in it but it ends up the same, in terms of behaviour.
The practical difference is literally that they aren't equivalent. I haven't considered how many grains of sand are in the Sahara, but that doesn't mean I think we have an infinite amount of sand in the Sahara. Similarly, just because someone doesn't consider something like natural gas reserves doesn't mean they believe in infinite natural gas. Etc...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')he article places far too much responsibility on government in the global economy
I didn't think it did. But where were the incorrect generalisations?
Placing liability soley on the government to regulate economic activity/rebuilding is an incorrect generalization. A single group of people, no matter how powerful, cannot control everyone else to the point where the resposibility for living sustainabily is their responsibility. Then there's the generalization regarding economic activity.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'S')imilarly, we can have economic growth w/o increased resource consumption
Only in fits and starts, with very rare examples for economies that are complete (i.e. all where all consumption is within the same economy as the production).
This must be one of those rare examples you're referring to. The entire world over the past two and a half to three decades, has seen the energy needed per unit of economic output decrease. It ain't just Japan, although they're a good example, but the entire world that has seen energy/economy decrease.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'M')ore economic activity demands greater resources or greater efficiencies. But both resources and efficiencies have limits and efficiencies can't be turned on like a tap. Even with efficiencies, economic growth will hit limits.Of course it will. I've seen very few seriously state the economy has no limits, at least in any quantifiable way, in other words talking heads don't count. ;)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'w')hich we have seen via reducing the energy consuption per unit GDP.That's only of relevance if population growth is zero. But efficiencies have limits, as I've mentioned.That's a silly statement. Any improvement is better than the alternative. In fact, in order to achieve sustainability, we have to make significant changes/improvements. If we had your opinion that improvements are only relevant given other circumstances, then we'll likely never become sustainable. For example, human population growth has been decreasing over the last few decades since it's peak in the 80s, and will continue to decrease in the future. During that time, living more sustainably, regardless of whether it's through efficiency increases or not can help, not hurt, and has significant relevance. W/o reducing the energy intensity of the world economy, we would be using an extra ~5TW right now, which is certainly less sustainable than what we're using right now given our current energy mix. Regardless of what population does, living in a more sustainable manner is better than doing nothing.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'N')ot to say that this can continue indefinitely, just that one-sided generalizations like this aren't helpful, at least in terms of serious discussion.Sorry, still can't see the generalisation (even one) that was incorrect.So you think it's correct that we need more energy for more growth, even though we've used less energy for the same amount of growth over the last twenty five to thirty years, or that only government is responsible for sustainability? C'mon... We all need to work towards sustainability, and over the past few decades have shown that we can have more economic growth given the same resources on a world wide scale. Stating stuff that's shown to be blatantly wrong via common sense or a few minutes of g00gling is just silly.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'M')aybe you think it's unhelpful to state that increasing consumption can't go on indefinitely on a finite planet but that is actually the main point that needs to be driven home. I see you have grasped that, which is great, but how do you make others grasp it?No one believes we can consume resources infinitely, so yes, stating that isn't helpful. They might as well write articles about how we can't mine the moon for Cheddar. What would be helpful is specific and insightful commentary into how we can be more sustainable, not trivial and incorrect statements involving energy/economy and the assumtion that everyone but a select few believe in infinite growth. Just because someone doesn't have an opinion about something doesn't mean that they believe in something about it, in this case that stuff is infinite. For the most part, all it makes the person look like is a jerk. In fact, I'd bet that using select individuals to encourage the others to express the same irrational dieas is a great way to insure some completely rational idea looks irrational. Astroturfing ftw!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby ReverseEngineer » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 02:53:39

In a closed environment with limitation on resources, sustainability requires limitations, this is self evident. The limitations can be self imposed by human beings through laws, which amount to REGULATION. The "free market" capitalist of course wants NO regulation. Clearly one can conclude from this that Capitalism is NOT sustainable.

If there is no regulation, the limitations will be imposed anyhow by the fact the resources will run out, and then you HAVE to regulate how the remaining resources get distributed. If you don't then you get a conflagration and crash the society as a whole, whether it is Ants or Homo Sapiens it would not matter here. Clearly evident in what we see going on before us right now.

Obviously, to make humanity a sustainable organism on the limited globe that is the Planet Earth, the total number of Human Beings and the energy it takes to keep them running cannot exceed the daily amount of harvestable energy rained down on us from the sun each day. As soon as you start using more energy than that, you cut down too many trees, you farm out the land and suck up the water table, you devour all the fossil fuels. Differnet timelines on any of these phenomena of course, but they all amount to the same thing, human population growing at the expense of the environment in a non-sustainable fashion.

How many human beings could be supported on Earth in a sustainable fashion? Based on the population before Big Oil came to rule the world, it would certainly be less than 1B based on the technology of that time. One has to consider also that even with only 1B people, even without oil we probably were consuming the land and the water tables faster than they were being replenished. So true sustainability might be a population quite a bit smaller than even 1B, at least with technnology extant at that time.

If you make the assumption that with technology extant today you could do a better job of harvesting the daily energy rained down from the sun and the energy derived from geothermal sources,perhaps the sustainable population is closer to 2B than 1B or less, but doubtful its much more than that.

The question we are faced with at the moment would be just HOW we depopulate downward from 6B to say 2B in some kind of controlled fashion that does not end with us fighting amongst ourselves for the scraps remaining in the aftermath of overshoot and Big Oil and Capitalist rape of the planet?

It appears unlikely at the moment that any sort of ability we might have had to control the spin down and make it happen through natural die off is about gone now. So Nature will take its course here through the tried and true methods of Depopulation, the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. Famine, Pestilence, War and Death will do their work here, as they always have. The question this time for humanity is "Will there be ANYONE left standing at the end of this one?"

Barring a complete collapse of the food chain due to environmental degradation; barring Nuclear Winter resulting from massive exchange of Thermonuclear Weapons, chances are that there are SOME left standing at the end of this. I would suspect we would undershoot the carrying capacity of the Earth by quite a bit though.

Fro those who are left, they will have some choices to make in the rebuilding process. Will they accept Greed as a driving force in their lives, or will they work not for themselves, but for the good of their brothers and sisters and their children, and for the good of Mother Earth? If the survivors choose that path and stick to it, we have a chance to survive for as long as the Sun rains down energy on the earth. If they don't, they will just die off in slightly longer time frame than had we Nuked the planet to begin with.

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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby MrBean » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 04:39:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'W')e need government, business, and individal input.


Why do YOU need those? Do not include all of us in your "we". :)
Unfortunately you're included in "we" unles you have no measurable impact on anything. Ideally, yes, people could somehow magically live in a bubble, only interacting in the ways they want to interact, and I bet fossil fuel owners as well as others responsible for externalized costs would love for it to be that easy. Unfortunately, the real world tends to intrude on day dreaming like this, and insuring that we can survive is something we all need to address. :-D


Emphasis on the word "measurable". :)

Good thing that thought and spirit cannot be measured, there is no metric for those phenomenons. :)

As for "governement" (of a modern state), "business" (in the capitalistic production system) and "individualism" (of the prevalent metaphysics), no, they are not needed. They are mostly harmfull.
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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby TonyPrep » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 05:42:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I') haven't considered how many grains of sand are in the Sahara, but that doesn't mean I think we have an infinite amount of sand in the Sahara. Similarly, just because someone doesn't consider something like natural gas reserves doesn't mean they believe in infinite natural gas.
I agree. Since that's not relevant to what I said, I don't know why you raise it. How would you act differently, if you believed in infinite resources, versus simply never considering if resources are limited? Or how do you think most people would act differently?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'P')lacing liability soley on the government to regulate economic activity/rebuilding is an incorrect generalization.
Do all the articles do that? If not, which article does that, and why do you regard it as a generalisation, rather than simply disagreeing with the proposed solution?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '[')url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/carbonemiss/images/chp1_figure19.jpg]This[/url] must be one of those rare examples you're referring to.
Clearly not, since it doesn't show overall consumption. I was referring to the rare cases when overall global consumption of energy did not grow, whilst the economy did. You said "Similarly, we can have economic growth w/o increased resource consumption". That you then attached a "per unit GDP" to that claim does not show that resource consumption can remain constant with economic growth (nor does it show that a fixed rate of consumption is sustainable).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')hat's a silly statement.
I agree, I misread your statement.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'A')ny improvement is better than the alternative.No it isn't. If improvements don't lead to sustainability, they can only stretch out the time before we need to do something significant. In the meantime, we have become even more dependent on resources, because a greater amount of GDP in reliant on the same amount of resource and we still have a society that is dependent on economic growth.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I')n fact, in order to achieve sustainability, we have to make significant changes/improvements. If we had your opinion that improvements are only relevant given other circumstances, then we'll likely never become sustainable.That's illogical. Only if the "improvements" (the use of the word is debatable) are geared towards achieving sustainability will they be relevant. If the target is to continue growth, they are irrelevant, since sustainability will not be reached through such "improvements".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'F')or example, human population growth has been decreasing over the last few decades since it's peak in the 80s, and will continue to decrease in the future.Population growth has not decreased for 5 years.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'R')egardless of what population does, living in a more sustainable manner is better than doing nothing.Sounds reasonable, except that unless "more sustainable" equals "sustainable", how is it better, and what does it even mean?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'S')o you think it's correct that we need more energy for more growth, even though we've used less energy for the same amount of growth over the last twenty five to thirty yearsReference please. I've never seen stats that show that. Or are you referring to growth per unit of GDP again?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'o')ver the past few decades have shown that we can have more economic growth given the same resources on a world wide scale.Reference please.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'S')tating stuff that's shown to be blatantly wrong via common sense or a few minutes of g00gling is just silly.Not sure why you posted this random comment.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'N')o one believes we can consume resources infinitely, so yes, stating that isn't helpful.Wrong on two counts. If most people haven't considered limits to growth then it's helpful to point it out, so that they may themselves change behaviours and press their leaders for sustainable strategies. If they are not even aware of limits, why would they see the need to change? There are elections in the US and New Zealand soon and you can bet that most people will vote for politicians they think will return their economies to growth.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')hey might as well write articles about how we can't mine the moon for Cheddar.Well, now, that would be silly, as was your comment.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 't')he assumtion that everyone but a select few believe in infinite growth.But the assumption, in terms of how people act, is spot on.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'F')or the most part, all it makes the person look like is a jerk.Wow, that's tough talk. And completely ridiculous.
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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby venky » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 07:54:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'A')lcassin, you're so drunk! Man, read what you just wrote tomorrow. Too funny! Good night.


Sometimes horrible, sometimes funny. Thanks :)

Anyway tell me MrBill price of wood on Eastern Island? Or any agricultural product. What do you think?

Easter Island is a cautionary tale. If we do nothing, it is the default option. But we should be clear, the disaster that was Easter Island was not caused by economic growth or a market economy. They cut down trees to erect religious monuments of no economic value. They did not trade their monument building skills. I take your point. I really do. My point is to make the decisions that do not result in another Easter Island on a grander scale. I am losing the battle. Not because I do not know the problems. Or the solutions. But because no one is acting on good advice. We have serious environmental, and by default economic and social, problems because we have not addressed the sustainability issue. I believe in market solutions. Others think the state knows better. I disagree. Strongly.



I believe in Market solutions in cases that it is evident that it would work. I also agree that the State probably wouldn't do any better than the market.

The market is good at delivering economic prosperity to the world; or atleast parts of it. But it seems to be falling woefully short when addressing the long term environmental and resource problems. People free to work in their self interest and for personal gain, I believe strongly that people should be economically free to the greatest extent possible; do lead to economic growth and rising standards of living; but it does not solve the longer term problems that society and the planet faces.

Barring a radical change in the mindset and culture of most individuals, I feel that only agents and institutions that act for society can solve the problems that face society. Is Government the only agent that can act for Society? Well, its the only one we are mostly familiar with, but it falls short , sometimes woefully, because it easily falls prey to short term political considerations and pressure groups.

I think we should think of a different model. One idea is Trusts that act for stewarding the environment and conserving the resources while interfering as little as possible in the economy. They should not be at the federal level, where they can fall prey to political influences, but should be more heavily localized so that the people of the given region have the largest say and stake in the issue.
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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby MrBean » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 08:02:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', '
')The market is good at delivering economic prosperity to the world; or atleast parts of it. But it seems to be falling woefully short when addressing the long term environmental and resource problems. People free to work in their self interest and for personal gain, I believe strongly that people should be economically free to the greatest extent possible; do lead to economic growth and rising standards of living; but it does not solve the longer term problems that society and the planet faces.

Barring a radical change in the mindset and culture of most individuals, I feel that only agents and institutions that act for society can solve the problems that face society. Is Government the only agent that can act for Society? Well, its the only one we are mostly familiar with, but it falls short , sometimes woefully, because it easily falls prey to short term political considerations and pressure groups.


As for practical measures advancing radical change in the mindset, how about banning all commercial advertizing - creating superfluous needs by most devious psychological manipulation?
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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby MrBill » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 09:35:06

venky, trusts are good. Call them vested savings instead of a pay as we go system that has its obvious faults when employment falls or economic activity declines. But as Ayn Rand predicted quite accurately in 1958 when governments are desperate they will confiscate, directly or indirectly, anything they can get their grubby little hands on.

Take Argentina. Not only did they default on their international creditors, but they froze foreign assets and wripped up commercial agreements. Then they ordered banks in Argentina to buy Argentine debt. Then they tried to confiscate the proceeds from agricultural exports. And when all else failed they seized the private pensions. But they are still likely to default a second time in less than 10-years.

Corrupt, incompetent governments can be trusted to make the worst possible decisions at the worst possible time. Trusts are not immune. Which is why buying up rain forests as a store of carbon capture is in reality a sick joke. There is absolutely nothing stopping legal or illegal logging at some time in the future when those governments feel they need the money. Like resource nationalization any international protest will be met with a stoney, "they're our resources and we can do whatever we want with them" response.

Not only that but anti-globalization protestors will no doubt publicly support their right to exploit those forests, and try to paint cap and trade programmes as the cause of the problem. They will call for aid and debt forgiveness as a bribe not to cut down trees that have in effect already been bought once already. It is inevitable and that is what makes it so depressing. You simply cannot help these backward countries no matter what you do. Damned if yuou do, damned if you do not.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby galacticsurfer » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 11:47:10

Mr. Bill,

You are depressing me because I think you're right. There seems to be no hope for collective decision making (at least in most countries). Maybe die-off for most of us is a damned good idea. Hope for a very fast PO cliff then to solve the problems.
"The horror, the horror"
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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby MrBill » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 12:07:12

Sorry. Having worked in emerging markets for many years I am just no longer very optimistic. The gains are too easily lost to populism; depend too heavily on a benign economic conditions; and often depend on one strong leader rather than on building strong institutions. Resourse depletion and climate change issues as well as continued population growth just put more stress on these countries. When they turn their back on solid economic advice because of its source or their ideology it is akin to cutting off their noses to spite their faces. As I said, sorry. That is just how I see it. 7.5-percent of the world are considered Rational-Realists.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby TonyPrep » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 14:21:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', 'I') believe strongly that people should be economically free to the greatest extent possible; do lead to economic growth and rising standards of living; but it does not solve the longer term problems that society and the planet faces.
People will only be free if they do not have to rely on other people (especially those outside their family or community group) for their survival and comfort. Our economic system, and the society tied to it, is implacably opposed to the idea of self reliance.
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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby TonyPrep » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 14:23:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', 'A')s for practical measures advancing radical change in the mindset, how about banning all commercial advertizing - creating superfluous needs by most devious psychological manipulation?
That would be a brilliant move. Simply access to a list of categorized products and services (with some basic facts and complaint statistics), should be enough.
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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby Falconoffury » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 14:25:34

Yesplease, one of your main points was that we have been able to grow due to efficiency gains for the past few decades. That is true, but that was not the only source of economic growth during that time. The world has not simply used the same amount of energy and other resources for 20 years, and grown purely off efficiency. We had a combination of greater resource utilization and efficiency gains. What the world hasn't yet tried is efficiency gains after worldwide resources peak. Let me tell you, it's a lot harder to do in that case. Peak oil will squeeze everything. Oil is so integral to the world economy, that peak oil means peak everything. The world will have to, very painfully, shift its economy into one that does not use much oil.

The reason we will have a crash into depression conditions is because of our flawed fractional reserve banking system, now utilized the world over. It's a system that only creates debt that can never be paid back. A different money system might allow us to transition into a "peak everything" world, but I can't see a huge crash being avoidable at this point.
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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby TonyPrep » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 14:40:39

It seems to be that economies of scale (as the global market increases, partly because of population growth) will inevitably decrease resource intensity of the global economy. If population ever does stop growing, without a collapse of civilization, then resource intensity will be a lot harder to reduce.
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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby cube » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 16:05:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '.')..People will only be free if they do not have to rely on other people (especially those outside their family or community group) for their survival and comfort. Our economic system, and the society tied to it, is implacably opposed to the idea of self reliance.
Every time you flush the toilet of flip the light switch on the wall you are relying on someone else to provide you with a service, in this case infrastructure / utilities. If the only way to be "free" (as what you explained) is to "not rely on others".....well then let me be blunt --> your definition of "freedom" is ridiculous.
Nobody with their sanity still in place would want it.
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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby r101958 » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 16:36:45

Cube............ I'm certainly glad that the people living here before, during and after the Civil War didn't feel the way that you do.
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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby ohanian » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 19:04:04

I'm an Easter Islander
I chop down trees
and I fish all day
I have a lot of children
Just like all my friends
My future is so bright
Because the Gods are on my side


Everybody now!
We're Easter Islanders
Masters of our world.
We create wealth of out nothing.
And the Gods are on our side.

. . .

I propose that we change the name of planet Earth to planet Easter.

This will then bring forth world wide consciousness of the problem that planet Easter is currently facing.

Scientists and Politicians can explain why we are renaming our planet.
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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby TonyPrep » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 19:34:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'N')obody with their sanity still in place would want it.
The insane think they are the only sane people.
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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby BlisteredWhippet » Thu 30 Oct 2008, 02:25:33

We are all going to die and be replaced by superior beings.

Consider this single government facility located in Hurricane alley, Galveston Texas: its construction is robust enough to weather natural disasters. What a lovely concept. And what, pray tell, are they protecting in there? Why, the world's most dangerous diseases.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The Galveston National Laboratory
As one of two National Biocontainment Laboratories to be constructed under grants awarded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases/National Institutes of Health (NIAID/NIH), the Galveston National Laboratory (GNL) will provide much-needed research space to develop therapies, vaccines and diagnostic tests for naturally occurring emerging diseases such as SARS and West Nile encephalitis, as well as for viral and bacterial agents that might be employed by terrorists.
• Total gross square feet: Approximately 174,000
• Total net square feet: 82,411
• Total laboratory space: 63,000 square feet
• Total BSL4 space: 12,362 square feet
• Total construction cost: $167 million
• Federal grant amount: $110 million
• Local share: $58.6 million
• Economic impact: $1.4 billion over 20 years statewide
• Construction start date: May 2005
• Projected opening date: June 2008
• Ownership: UTMB will own and operate the GNL in support of the biodefense research agenda of NIAID
• Types of pathogens to be studied: Anthrax, plague, hemorrhagic fevers (such as Ebola), typhus, West Nile virus, influenza, drug-resistant tuberculosis, among others
• Principal Investigator: Stanley M. Lemon, M.D.
Director, Institute for Human Infections and Immunity and
John Sealy Distinguished University Chair in Human Infections and Immunity, endowed by The Sealy & Smith Foundation


This is the only way out. This is the only picture that connects the dots. A controlled release wiping out most of the human population is the only way around the physical problem. Anyone who understands anything looks at the numbers and recognizes that it is too late. "We", which I mean humanity collectively, does not have the ability to unmake this mess. And moral and ethical agency will be assigned to the task of wiping us all out as soon as the data is solid: and I think it is, just as surely as they think it is.

Moral arguments can be made.

We talk alot on PO.com, and we accomplish nothing. Governments accomplish nothing, and average people accomplish nothing further still.

Anyone who is motivated by a love of planet will proceed to carry out genocide. The mechanisms are in place. Ethical and moral considerations for individuals or groups of individuals have no weight when you're talking about planetary death.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The question we are faced with at the moment would be just HOW we depopulate downward from 6B to say 2B in some kind of controlled fashion that does not end with us fighting amongst ourselves for the scraps remaining in the aftermath of overshoot and Big Oil and Capitalist rape of the planet?


Stop playing stupid. You know the answer. Its slapping you in the face. Its tickling your balls. Why are you afraid of its inevitability? There is no other solution. "THEY" are too smart to allow the world to be trashed by petty wars that go nowhere, that accomplish nothing but further destruction. Expect pandemic before tipping points. If tipping points are reached before pandemic, consider me wrong, because that is certainly not the timeline they'll be persuing. If they don't release pandemic before the tipping point, my rationale is certainly wrong, for there is going to be nothing to "save".

After "the fall", my guess is that there will be something of a global dictatorship run by a techno-elite. They will have manufacturing, tech, medicine, and the rest of time to peruse our libraries. They will catalog our excesses and wrap them up neatly in a Wikipedia page called "Industrial History".

I seriously doubt they will be held back by money, democracy or capitalism, or any other vestige of the old ways. It will be the dawn of a new age of compassionate rationality.

Bad things happen; extrordinarily bad things, global dieoffs, even. But such events will simply be abstract history in the future, just as the holocausts of the last millenium are to us.
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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby ReverseEngineer » Thu 30 Oct 2008, 03:58:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', 'S')top playing stupid. You know the answer. Its slapping you in the face. Its tickling your balls. Why are you afraid of its inevitability? There is no other solution. "THEY" are too smart to allow the world to be trashed by petty wars that go nowhere, that accomplish nothing but further destruction. Expect pandemic before tipping points. If tipping points are reached before pandemic, consider me wrong, because that is certainly not the timeline they'll be persuing. If they don't release pandemic before the tipping point, my rationale is certainly wrong, for there is going to be nothing to "save".


I do not agree that the mechanisms are in place to proceed with a "controlled genocide" via biological pathogens, despite the fact such things have been under investigation since at least the 1950s. On the Dark Side of the scientific equation, this is much like the pursuit of an inexhaustible source of energy in the form of Fusion Power, also pursued since that time.

I spent a reasonable amount of time in research in both Physics and Biochemistry back in the 70s. Actually, the lab I worked in developed some of the first Radio Imunno Assay tests. The fact is however that while we can build a decent H-Bomb, actually controlling this energy is as far from our grasp now as it was in the 70s. Simlarly, although we can sequence DNA and tally up the Human Genome, even create designer organisms to an extent, we have no control whatsoever of what a biological organism will do once out in the wild. Any pathogen with the ability to wipe out say 80% of humanity would also have the potential of mutating int he wild to knock out EVERYBODY, so its not something the "techno-elite" would let loose, any more than they would willy nilly start hurling nukes at each other. You can't make "surgical strikes" with "smart bombs", as was demonstrated fairly effectively in the original Gulf War. War remains messy with a lot of collateral damage. Biological warfare would be no different, in fact far worse, so its not something the techno elite will currently mess with themselves. Too good a chance they are the ones that get sick and die if you release out into the wild any pathogen with this kind of virulence.

This is not to say mass genocide will not be attempted by some means, and of course controlled starvation is probably the most likely means possible for the techno elite. This low tech method is far more controllable than any of the high tech methods. The problem with this method is it suffers political problems and military problems in implementation. As the army of the Roman Empire fractured, so also will large military structures of today fracture in a starvation scenario. Everybody looking out for themselves basically, and factions develop internally creating internecine war inside any monolith.

I am not really arguing with you that there IS a techno elite wishing to create a New World Order, or that they will attempt to rather ruthlessly pursue such an agenda. I just question their ability to make a success of this venture, as I questioned the ability of George Bush to gain control over Iraq and question the ability of the federal goobermint to mqnage depopulation through the mega cities of the US. To many possibilities for anarchy, its chaos theory, Benoit Mandelbrot got this stuff RIGHT.

We should get to see how many of these ideas play themselves out over the next decade or so, assuming the whole process is not short circuited through environmental degradation and methane release from clathrates or global thermonuclear war. I do expect to see a gradual dropping out of posters here through the time period however :-) I'll keep posting long as I can. Crossing my fingers that the Internet goes Dark before I cross over to the Other Side.

See You on the Other Side.

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Re: The Folly of Growth - New Scientist

Postby cube » Thu 30 Oct 2008, 05:48:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'N')obody with their sanity still in place would want it.
The insane think they are the only sane people.
You talk tough but you are obviously not living up to what you're preaching.
The fact that you're currently using the internet is proof you rely on others.
Imagine all the millions of technicians who repair and maintain modern infrastructure just so you can sit there and happily type on your computer.
It is *YOU* who have lost your sanity if you believe you can survive without relying on others.
you are wasting my time

good bye
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