Lets imagine following situation:
Due to substantial technological developments oil industry is managing to carry on increasing production (and keep prices low) until only say 20% of recoverable oil is left.
Prices go down to $40 a barrel or so and remain at this level for next 20 years.
All alternative energy projects are abandoned as uneconomical meantime.
Peoples forgot about PO for good.
And then inevitable came: Production started to drop 25% in first bad year, 30% in following one and within few more years at 30% annual drop virtually no EROEI>1 oil is left.
Shortly, lets assume, that whole society will behave like Titanic orchestra.
Lets enjoy until oil last...
Do you consider this scenario possible?
Any other ideas?
PeakOil is You
The fewer oil is left, the lower its price
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The fewer oil is left, the lower its price
by EnergyUnlimited » Wed 13 Sep 2006, 12:49:40
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Re: The fewer oil is left, the lower its price
by ClubOfRomeII » Wed 13 Sep 2006, 13:10:02
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Do you consider this scenario possible?
Any other ideas?
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Do you consider this scenario possible?
Any other ideas?
Hubbert would say no. Because confusing rates and URR is bad. You would have to mangle his curve pretty horrifically to show exponentially increasing rate to the 80% URR line, then the absolute cratering you've described.
And rates are why it won't happen. You can't ramp up fast enough on the secondary types of hydrocarbons like sands, shales, unconventional and deep water to match ever increasing demand. They'll get used of course, and they'll flatten out the backside of his curve in a reasonable way ( go look at US natural gas production for an example ) but the rate won't be able to increase fast enough.
I was reading about the meeting where Hubbert presented his initial ideas, and how industry was betting they could drill him into oblivion, and they tried, and it just didn't matter. In the end, part of it is the Bartlett powers of 2 arguement, the exponential increase, given enough time, just can't be met by a finite resource. Can't. Hubberts add on to that idea is WHEN it can't.
So no, you can't have your scenario.
So the price, sooner or later, has to go up to balance against harder and harder to find/get/produce/transport crude. Has to. And needs to, I might add.
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Re: The fewer oil is left, the lower its price
by americandream » Wed 13 Sep 2006, 17:50:49
I think you are looking at a post Lebanon discount here......Lebanon was pounded and the oil still flowed from brother Arabia...go figure.
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