[patience]

I chose 2011-2015, based on 1) Financial system on the verge of implosion, and 2) The German-based Energy Watch Group predicts oil production dropping 7%/year from now on. (Their guess is bound to be better than mine.) And a healthy dose of SWAG method, aided and abetted by my gut level response to the finance thing.

I see #1 going down in 2008/early 2009 to produce super tight credit, followed by possible system freeze up. If finance gets that bad, and we are down 10% to 14% in oil production by then, the economics will be devastating, with human suffering on a comensurate level. Add a year or two to that cene, with oil down 25% or so, and there we are.

I purposely left out any other events, as those are the only two I know how to quantify at all. I've watched the oil scene since 1974 and have a bad gut reaction to that current situation also. Not claiming prescience here, but I've learned to trust my gut in a general way.

[bodigami]

you should specify what country are you talking about on the OP.

[AgentR]

To hit any one of your definitions... 2050-2075

[patience]

I give up. What's an"OP" and how do I get there?

[skyemoor]

A severe pandemic would cause the things you refer to, especially one that had many waves of 8-12 weeks. Wouldn't be surprised to see one in the next 10 years. Imagine if it happened as PO was already precipitating the effects you described...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')n H5N1 pandemic would probably come in waves. In each wave about 1/4 of the population could be infected. People who become ill in the first wave could also become sick in later waves. Each wave could last about 8-12 weeks, and the period between waves could vary between 8-20 weeks. Most likely, an H5N1 pandemic would have at least three waves and could last for over 12 months.

[zzzpeakoil]

I voted after 2025. Though I would like it to happen as fast as possible, because I hate the way things are in this world, I don't see how it could happen in the next decade. Peak Oil's effects only exist as long as you keep open your computer and dwell on doomer sites. When you get "out there" in the "real world", there's absolutely nothing that signals such major changes this topic is about and 99.99% of population still has no clue about PO.

The streets are full with cars, supermarkets are full with food, population is increasing at a scary rate and the damn establishment can only get stronger from this, not weaker. There's no way that a EOLAWKI can occur before 2025. But who knows, maybe I am missing something. Not that I don't belive PO is real or anything, but this is exaggerated. It was said that 60$ oil will be too high. Then nothing happended and it was said 70$will be too high. Nothing happened, and it was said that 80$ will be too high, and so on an on. Oil will never be too high, because people will always be willing to pay for it.

Basicly, I think the most important factor that could lead to an EOLAWKI is a much too high population level. And I'd think that the way things are now, it will reach about 10 bilion before the "real" problems start occuring.

[Narz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', 'y')ou should specify what country are you talking about on the OP.

[patience]

Thanks, Narz. I was referring to the US, although the same would probably hold true for UK and Western Europe. Based on #4, and the spoiled nature of the more affluent countries.