[obixman]

I'm not certain that the price of Gasoline (which I think is the proper measure rather than Peak Oil - which is really more of a concept - and when it occurs will be mostly evident in retrospect) is a direct cause of the recession. Rather I view it as a trigger - it made people re-evaluate their expenses, which in turn led to some extra forclosures, whcih in turn lead to the realization that the morgage derivitives were un-valuable, which in turn lead to the credit crunch, which in turn.....


well, you get the picture.

Peak OIl/ gas prices in and of themselves didn't cause the recession, they just pulled the trigger.

Just as Guilermo Princep (?spelling) didn't start WWI, he just shot the Archduke.

[gollum]

I think that higher food and fuel prices were a significant part of this problem, but for sure not the only cause. However I do think that things might have been able to go a while longer BAU if it were not for $4 gas and higher food prices.

[MD]

Energy is at the root of our collective dilemmmas. Don't let the current financial crises distract you.

It's still all about energy!

[Sys1]

Hydrocarbon : I agree. That's what I try to explain to family/friends : It's not just about finance, it's oil scarcity which kills growth/capitalism/business as usual. Our oil addictive civilization was doomed to fail since the beginning as we use a non renewable ressource at exponential rate.
Add to that global warming and population overshot and you have a perfect strom coming right to us. For the moment, we just see the black clouds and a gentle breeze. Look far, you see a twister as large as a continent heading to us.

Politics gave us umbrellas to face that.

[pedalling_faster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'E')nergy is at the root of our collective dilemmmas. Don't let the current financial crises distract you.

It's still all about energy!

[mos6507]

As oil prices recede there will be no end of attempts to link peak oil with the credit crisis, but to me they ALL fail, bigtime. The connection is a mild one at best. We just have to deal with it rather than suffering from acute peak oil tunnel-vision.

[threadbear]

Peak oil didn't cause the tower of derivatives, hedge fund wipeouts, etc...There would be economic turmoil, regardless.

In terms of oil price, keep your eyes on Georgia, and the former USSR. US could continue it's attempts to encircle Russia, militarizing former satellite countries, and bringing them into NATO. It's all been put on hold for the elections, but the strength of the dollar, resting on the American ability to punish dissent, globally, could be called into question. People could easily ditch their American treasuries, at that point, repatriate their wealth, or invest in gold.

The ability to control oil price, through friendship with Saudis, control of Georgian, Azerbijani Caspian Sea pipeline, is becoming more questionable. The key issue is CONTROL, and if the US loses it, through further deficit spending on warfare, or loses it through NOT spending it on warfare, either way they're screwed, and the world will realize this, and ditch treasuries. This would make oil more expensive for Americans but likely less expensive for everyone else, as their currencies could benefit from the pull out of treasuries.

[TheDude]

US VMT, up to early 2008:



US VMT against GDP, up to 2005:



GDP is a rather debased figure though, the impact may be more severe than this suggests.

[pedalling_faster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'U')S VMT, up to early 2008:


[/URL]

GDP is a rather debased figure though, the impact may be more severe than this suggests.

[satjeet]

Regarding the financial meltdown and peak oil ...

I recall reading a short paper by Douglas B. Reynolds that attempted to model the subjective probability of success of "finding riches" given the world had arrived at peak oil. This was done in game theory.

Of course, the model was a simplification ...

But the answer was --- that euphoria broke out just as peak oil was reached. Does this sound familiar??

[mwellermd]

You can make a case for peak oil being the trigger, but my feeling is that the increase in fuel prices had a relatively small effect on the current crises.

If peak oil and high fuel prices were the only cause, we would now see improvements in the economy since gas prices are coming down.

Right now I think we're just seeing the results of all the gambling, greed, corruption, hypocrisy, sense of entitlement, wastefullness, ... , I could go on, of government, business and many others. Of course there are many innocent victims in all of this also.

We will most likely weather this storm and begin a recovery. That's when I'm worried that we'll see the effects of peak oil when the recovery brings an increase in GDP and gas prices go through the roof. Then it's a slowing of recovery and slumping again. We'll cycle this way for years but the trend will be continually down. I'm not sure where it'll end.

[dorlomin]

Peak oil lessened the impact of the housing value collapse because it helped pop the bubble a few months or so earlier.

Now the deflationary cycle brought about by peak oil will mask its impact by supressing demand for a while.

Good news bad news really.

[gampy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mwellermd', 'Y')ou can make a case for peak oil being the trigger, but my feeling is that the increase in fuel prices had a relatively small effect on the current crises.

If peak oil and high fuel prices were the only cause, we would now see improvements in the economy since gas prices are coming down.

Right now I think we're just seeing the results of all the gambling, greed, corruption, hypocrisy, sense of entitlement, wastefullness, ... , I could go on, of government, business and many others. Of course there are many innocent victims in all of this also.

We will most likely weather this storm and begin a recovery. That's when I'm worried that we'll see the effects of peak oil when the recovery brings an increase in GDP and gas prices go through the roof. Then it's a slowing of recovery and slumping again. We'll cycle this way for years but the trend will be continually down. I'm not sure where it'll end.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak oil didn't cause the tower of derivatives, hedge fund wipeouts, etc...There would be economic turmoil, regardless.

[peakeco]

Hi, am searching for books, articles, and discussions regarding the effect of high energy prices on economies (ie. the relationship between oil prices and recessions/depressions).

Surprised to not see much literature on the topic. Im sure its out there. Im hoping you readers can direct me. Thank you.

[bratticus]

Did you try:

http://books.google.com/books?q=energy+recessions

[seldom_seen]

Read Stephen Leeb's books, he covers this.

[peakeco]

thanks for the replys. reading Leeb's now. Though im not sure if Leeb discusses the impact of high energy prices on an international level. Will add more comments on this topic as i read.