[Sys1]

"Adelman is a professor of economics at MIT."

I don't want him to teach me anything

[shortonoil]

One wonders if he was paid to write that drivel. If he was, how much and by whom.

[killJOY]

Not to put too fine a point on it....but I to repeat another of his inanities:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')...in some places the oil does run down. ...output in Texas peaked in 1972. But the 'running out' vision never works globally."

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('khebab', 'U')nbelievable! proof that you can come from MIT and be a moron! These guys have really no connections with the real world!

[gg3]

Count me as one guy with a deep libertarian streak who puts altruism before selfishness, and facts (e.g. ecology & resource limits) before theory.

I'd suggest writing to that economist at his Cato address and asking -not in sarcastic tones either!- if he really means "supply dwindles, price goes up, demand destruction sets in, and we don't run out of oil it just gets expensive," or if he really means "there is an unlimited amount of oil lurking under the ground."

Then if the former, ask him to describe his scenario for what happens next. And if the latter, ask him where it comes from. Either case should yield interesting and publishable quotes.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'d suggest writing to that economist at his Cato address and asking -not in sarcastic tones either!- if he really means "supply dwindles, price goes up, demand destruction sets in

[tokyo_to_motueka]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'C')ount me as one guy with a deep libertarian streak who puts altruism before selfishness, and facts (e.g. ecology & resource limits) before theory.

I'd suggest writing to that economist at his Cato address and asking -not in sarcastic tones either!- if he really means "supply dwindles, price goes up, demand destruction sets in, and we don't run out of oil it just gets expensive," or if he really means "there is an unlimited amount of oil lurking under the ground."

Then if the former, ask him to describe his scenario for what happens next. And if the latter, ask him where it comes from. Either case should yield interesting and publishable quotes.

[shortonoil]

What he may be saying is that we will run out of money before we run out of oil. That is probably the case. There is a huge amount of oil on the planet. The only problem is that it takes more energy to get it out of the ground and process it, than you get from the oil. Because our civilization depends on "cheap" or conventional oil, we will go broke before we extract all the available resource. More efficient energy use will place that date further into the future. Unfortunately, it appears that the present ruling corporate/government body doesn't want that to happen.

[gg3]

Killjoy: Good point! Unpack "demand destruction." Ask him to "operationalize his variables," i.e. spell out *how* the variable in question occurs.

Tokyo: Thanks. BTW, any set of political principles or theory can be used in the service of progress & civilization, or in the service of tyranny of one kind or another, or in the service of feudalism, etc. etc. I can show you a number of instances in which libertarian and oldschool conservative ideas are in agreement with social-democratic and liberal ideas.

(Even with regard to supporting the need for trade unions, strangely enough! The quick outline is: Kantian categorical imperative + lack of correlation between work skills & "bargaining" skills + efficiency benefits in designating specialist-skilled negotiators = unions, though not in the same way as presently constituted. Details on request.)

Adelman = crank: Okay, so now what we need is a good refutation that Cato will publish. If I wasn't so busy with worky-work, I'd be interested to write it.

Shortonoil: I think you're probably right. But "running out of money" is every bit as problematic. Either way, things go smash. Now comes the question, what does Adelman have to say about the smash and the aftermath?

---

As a generality, I'm starting to think we should call a truce between the Engineers and the Economists.

I'm an engineer (telecoms) and I think like one, and I live in the geek culture, etc., and I've been noticing a whole lot of instances of engineers dismissing economists as stupid. This isn't particularly helpful.

First, economists aren't stupid per-se, they are often simply misinformed. WE have to take it upon ourselves to start educating them about the kinds of real-world facts we deal with every day. And we need to do it without being condescending.

Second, like it or not, fixing the world-mess is an "all hands on deck" proposition. The world-at-large can't afford to wait for bickering and factionalism and all of that nonsense. The time to start is twenty years ago, but "now" is a better compromise than "never."

[shortonoil]

Being an engineer (mechanical), I think like one. Here is my plan. We built two great big space ships. We put all the economist, telephone sanitizers, account execs and the like in one. We put all the engineers, technicians and fix it types in another. We send the first ship to Alpha Century. We take the second ship around the moon and then back to earth.
Vola, we now have a thinking population who can appreciate the Three Stooges

[Bubbling_Crude]

Here's a different viewpoint on oil prices from Tim Evans, a 'mineral economist'.

Oil-market contrarian sees price bubble ready to burst

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')There is no worrisome lack of supply. With 1.8 million barrels a day of excess production capacity, Saudi Arabia can quickly pump enough oil to offset any disruptions, short of the most catastrophic scenarios.

[linlithgowoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f Bush decides to let it out. He may or may not, depending on circumstances.

[Muffloj]

Please explain how 250,000 barrels(1.2% of daily American consumption/ .32% world ) is gonna make a difference in the price of gas?

[linlithgowoil]

[QUOTE]Please explain how 250,000 barrels(1.2% of daily American consumption/ .32% world ) is gonna make a difference in the price of gas?[CODE]

well, its certainly not going to make oil prices higher anyway. 250,000 barrels is a fair amount of oil. also, the very fact that the US will be buying less would send a signal to the market - likely sending prices lower still.

i'm not trying to start some kind of argument here, i was just saying that - at present - we are still awash with oil - enormous quantities of it. In two to three years from now we may be on the other side of the peak however - and, of course, in the run up to this we'll be seeing high and volatile prices.

[BabyPeanut]

This author does not pay any attention to increasing demand from China.

[Taskforce_Unity]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
i'm not trying to start some kind of argument here, i was just saying that - at present - we are still awash with oil - enormous quantities of it. In two to three years from now we may be on the other side of the peak however - and, of course, in the run up to this we'll be seeing high and volatile prices.

[mmm]

There is likely going to be a major oil glut due to recession in the near future. That'll temporarily make people think peakoil is a myth, but the changes will come almost exclusively from the demand side. Supply is near max, and over the long run people need to get used to ever higher prices in order to stabilize demand.

[khebab]

I think is in part right in particular about speculation. For instance, concerning Hedge funds:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')on-commercials, which primarily consist of hedge funds, bought 3,378 contracts of crude futures and options on the New York Mercantile Exchange, according to data released Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Non-commercials were net long 112,002 contracts of crude futures and options as of Mar 29, the highest long position since June 1, according to the Commitments of Traders report. Despite the additional purchases made by non-commercials crude moved sideways during the reporting period, range bound between $52.50-$55.50/bbl. Non-commercials sold 1,575 contracts of unleaded gasoline futures and options, leaving them net long 39,093 lots. Non-commercials sold 2,833 contracts of heating oil futures and options, leaving them net long 5,809 lots.

[shortonoil]

He failed to adjust for the fact that almost one-half of the worlds' oil producing nations are in decline. If SA is in decline at the rate of 800K/d/y and Mexico goes in decline next year at the rate predicted, peak will undoubtly occur in 2006. It must also be realized that the majority of mega-projects coming online in the next 3 years will be producing heavy and sometimes heavy sour crude. The oil will add little to the worlds' distallate situation as the refinery capacity to process it is very limited!