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THE Economic Collapse Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: A Very Important Reminder About The Coming Economic Coll

Unread postby americandream » Sat 06 Aug 2011, 01:55:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'N')ow 60 years later Gandhi's speech is proving accurate that India is rising as a literal "3rd world" to rival the West.

Except they are doing this at the tail end of the expansionist era. Not going to be very long-lived rival, what with peak all get-out bearing down now, is she?


There is no robust third way to living in community (communism) or living as atomised workers and owners of capital (capitalism). I can't imagine what Ghandi was contemplating as the other ways to this arrangement range from barbarism to feudalism and are downright reactionary as we find with contemporary feudal society, the Islamic world. Ghandi (and Mao) was disingenuous as he (and Mao) sought to hide the fact that India (and China) would plough a system aimed at enriching an elite. The fact that both China and India are now propping up an exhausted value system in the West in fact points to the sorry fiasco of globalisation by stealth.
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Re: A Very Important Reminder About The Coming Economic Coll

Unread postby eastbay » Sat 06 Aug 2011, 02:29:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'N')ow 60 years later Gandhi's speech is proving accurate that India is rising as a literal "3rd world" to rival the West.

Except they are doing this at the tail end of the expansionist era. Not going to be very long-lived rival, what with peak all get-out bearing down now, is she?


The road paint on her ribbons of gleaming, freshly striped superhighways will barely have a chance to dry before they're rendered obsolete. Too bad. They knew it was coming and yet they squandered the final meals in this fashion. Typical humans.
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Re: A Very Important Reminder About The Coming Economic Coll

Unread postby peripato » Sat 06 Aug 2011, 03:33:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'T')he road paint on her ribbons of gleaming, freshly striped superhighways will barely have a chance to dry before they're rendered obsolete. Too bad. They knew it was coming and yet they squandered the final meals in this fashion. Typical humans.

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Re: THE Economic Collapse Thread (merged)

Unread postby Revi » Fri 10 May 2013, 09:16:58

The dollar is a lot stronger this morning, due to the collapse of the Yen. I think we will benefit from the collapse of other economies, such as the Japanese in the way that a larger community benefits from the ruin of other places. They get the refugees and for a time are better off until they go down, releasing more refugees until the whole thing collapses like the Mayan empire did. There were many city states, and the collapse was spread out over hundreds of years.
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Re: THE Economic Collapse Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 10 May 2013, 10:33:48

Flight to safety is the old story, the question is, is the refuge really safe?

It has been posited for several years now that when the splat hits the fan whomever is perceived as strongest will benefit at the beginning. The people in the decline area will attempt to protect their liquid wealth by converting it to Euro's or Dollar's or Amero's (REMEMBER THAT PLAN?), or Yuan. If the decline spreads more and more liquid wealth will be converted until the last few or last one standing is cash rich. But if the last few or last one standing also hit a decline the whole house of Fiat money cards comes tumbling down.
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Re: THE Economic Collapse Thread (merged)

Unread postby Revi » Fri 17 May 2013, 11:41:00

I think we are at that point already. A place like Japan which is in decline is printing lots of money meanwhile the housing industry is dead and a lot of places look like ghost towns over there. They are fleeing to the larger, supposedly stronger economy we have over here. They need to put their money into something safer, so a lot of them are buying US stocks, etc. There's a perception that it's a good place to put your money. It's working to hold us up for a while.
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Eurozone crisis: The ghost tramway haunting Spain

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 18 Jun 2013, 15:35:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22932518
A 38 million euro tramway built to link a Spanish coastal town with a nearby beach resort that has been unused for the past few years is being packed up and sent to Australia.
<video>
Velez Malaga's tram system was completed six years ago, but the service was a victim of cuts when the economic crisis hit - so now the town's mayor is renting it to Sydney, Australia, to help pay for mounting debts.


Parts of the EU are really grinding to a halt, good news is they are returning to agriculture to earn a living.
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Re: THE Economic Collapse Thread (merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 14 Aug 2013, 17:49:43

America’s new $60 trillion deadliest enemy

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y 2024, the end of the next president’s second term, water shortages and pollution problems will be America’s deadliest enemy, worse than Big Oil, killing economic growth, destroying America’s future.

The decline is already in progress, GDP is predicted to collapse below 1% in this century.

Can this disastrous trend be stopped? Maybe. Taxpayers cost? $60 trillion, estimates a Scientific American research study. Bad news for a planet where the total GDP of all nations is only $70 trillion.

Reuters reports the researchers calculated the impact of “releasing a 50-gigaton reservoir of methane thawing under the East Siberian Sea permafrost.” London’s Guardian newspaper called this an “economic time bomb” that could “undermine the global financial system.”

Political wars will accelerate: Big Oil climate deniers will double down. Ernst & Young researchers estimate “20% of the world’s undiscovered but recoverable oil and natural-gas resources” are also under that same methane-laden Arctic. So Big Oil must fight even harder to protect its $150 billion annual profits, making certain not one dime of America’s $17 trillion GDP is spent to stop the ticking time bomb.

It may already be too late, said Bill McKibben in Foreign Policy, too late to stop the global warming time bomb. Big Oil keeps electing climate deniers to Congress, like the GOP’s Dana Rohrabacher. The Daily Pilot of Orange County, Calif., reports: “He believes global warming is a total fraud.”

And a ThinkProgress headline read: “Steve King: Belief in Climate Change is a ‘Religion, Not Science’.” That “despite the fact that 97% of scientists agree that climate change is real.” King is an Iowa Republican, spoke at “an event sponsored by the climate-denying, Koch-funded Americans for Prosperity.” The “Koch Empire” is in a costly “mother of all wars” to protect their profits.


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Re: THE Economic Collapse Thread (merged)

Unread postby lasseter » Mon 13 Jan 2014, 02:51:47

The British Pound as reserve currency
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')“It took ten years after the end of the war (and a 30% devaluation of the pound) before the share of USD reserves exceeded that of sterling.”

How do we explain the gradual nature of the decline of sterling? Was this due to British government efforts to prolong sterling’s role because it increased the capacity to borrow, enhanced international prestige, or because it supported London as a lucrative centre for international finance? These are the traditional explanations, but new evidence shows that privately many British bureaucrats and politicians recognized that the burdens of sterling’s role in terms of a rising cost of borrowing and vulnerability to external pressure outweighed the benefits of issuing an international currency. Closer examination shows that sterling’s international role was deliberately prolonged by collective global interest in its continuation.

http://www.worldfinancialreview.com/?p=511
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Re: THE Economic Collapse Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 13 Jan 2014, 07:25:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lasseter', 'T')he British Pound as reserve currency
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')“It took ten years after the end of the war (and a 30% devaluation of the pound) before the share of USD reserves exceeded that of sterling.”

How do we explain the gradual nature of the decline of sterling? Was this due to British government efforts to prolong sterling’s role because it increased the capacity to borrow, enhanced international prestige, or because it supported London as a lucrative centre for international finance? These are the traditional explanations, but new evidence shows that privately many British bureaucrats and politicians recognized that the burdens of sterling’s role in terms of a rising cost of borrowing and vulnerability to external pressure outweighed the benefits of issuing an international currency. Closer examination shows that sterling’s international role was deliberately prolonged by collective global interest in its continuation.

http://www.worldfinancialreview.com/?p=511


Not to sound snarky, but why would anyone expect the persons heavily invested in the Pound Sterling NOT to fight to keep it in a preeminent position? They are the very definition of 'Vested Interest', of course they sought individually and collectively to keep their interests in a beneficial position.
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Re: THE Economic Collapse Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby lasseter » Mon 13 Jan 2014, 16:42:18

That is the point of my post Tanada. And why it's entirely possible that the $US dollar retains much of it's strength for years to come. Many assume the $US will collapse any old day but history suggests otherwise. The world needs a reserve currency more than ever now.
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Re: THE Economic Collapse Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 13 Jan 2014, 18:33:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lasseter', 'T')hat is the point of my post Tanada. And why it's entirely possible that the $US dollar retains much of it's strength for years to come. Many assume the $US will collapse any old day but history suggests otherwise. The world needs a reserve currency more than ever now.


Why?

No I am not showing my smart Alec side, Why do you believe the world needs a bonified official reserve currency no matter what the consequences?
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Re: THE Economic Collapse Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby americandream » Mon 13 Jan 2014, 21:44:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lasseter', 'T')hat is the point of my post Tanada. And why it's entirely possible that the $US dollar retains much of it's strength for years to come. Many assume the $US will collapse any old day but history suggests otherwise. The world needs a reserve currency more than ever now.


Why?

No I am not showing my smart Alec side, Why do you believe the world needs a bonified official reserve currency no matter what the consequences?


A reserve currency bacxked by firepower is an essential for the global elite who invartiably hold a significant portion of their wealth in US assets and prefer trading with it as a consequence. It's the only guarantee against unpredictable or luke warm jurisdictions.
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Re: THE Economic Collapse Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby lasseter » Tue 14 Jan 2014, 02:58:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lasseter', ' ')The world needs a reserve currency more than ever now.


Why?

No I am not showing my smart Alec side, Why do you believe the world needs a bonified official reserve currency no matter what the consequences?


From your earlier post I'm guessing you think that the elite, the vested interests, are the main beneficiaries of a reserve currency. I would disagree. Consider for a moment the amount your federal government spends on Defence compared to what it spends on welfare. The elites may skim off the cream but we drink all the milk. They just use the dollar as a tool, there wealth is held in Land, farms, solid companies and gold. It is the ordinary people like you and I who benifit from a stable global reserve currency.

In a time of international turmoil such as we now live in the last thing we need is to have international trade completely disrupted by the loss of the reserve currency. How would we settle accounts for all the middle east oil we consume? Would you send them Iphones? Would they want 20 Billion worth of Australian sheep from us? Look at every imported thing you are now dependant on and ask how you would get it if the world lacked an orderly means of settling trade accounts.

The only other logical option would be gold, Which is one of Australia's biggest exports, and from what I hear, you don't have much of anymore.
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Re: THE Economic Collapse Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 14 Jan 2014, 04:43:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lasseter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lasseter', ' ')The world needs a reserve currency more than ever now.


Why?

No I am not showing my smart Alec side, Why do you believe the world needs a bonified official reserve currency no matter what the consequences?


From your earlier post I'm guessing you think that the elite, the vested interests, are the main beneficiaries of a reserve currency. I would disagree. Consider for a moment the amount your federal government spends on Defence compared to what it spends on welfare. The elites may skim off the cream but we drink all the milk. They just use the dollar as a tool, there wealth is held in Land, farms, solid companies and gold. It is the ordinary people like you and I who benifit from a stable global reserve currency.

In a time of international turmoil such as we now live in the last thing we need is to have international trade completely disrupted by the loss of the reserve currency. How would we settle accounts for all the middle east oil we consume? Would you send them Iphones? Would they want 20 Billion worth of Australian sheep from us? Look at every imported thing you are now dependant on and ask how you would get it if the world lacked an orderly means of settling trade accounts.

The only other logical option would be gold, Which is one of Australia's biggest exports, and from what I hear, you don't have much of anymore.


You have fallen into the trap of believing infinite growth on a finite planet can continue without restriction. International trade existed long before fiat currency and infinite growth became the standards of civilization, and they will exist long after that paradigm ceases to exist. Make no mistake the adjustment period when the infinite growth bubble finally collapses is going to be painful in the extreme, but nothing built on fiat lives forever.

Before fiat currency was the rule of the day people who wanted to build or expand something had to scrimp and save to accumulate the funds needed, and they had to be very careful how they invested those savings in order to benefit from their efforts. Once fiat currency was made the rule of the day the people who wished to expand their physical wealth were able to borrow funds to make their purchases and saving became passe'. Before fiat currency ruled putting your money in a financial institution like a Bank of Savings and Loan was considered an investment, you deposited cash money you had saved that had real physical value. The institution then loaned that money out carefully doing its best to only loan to good credit worthy borrowers who in turn would repay the loan with a small interest surcharge. Occasionally a borrower would default on their loan and the physical assets used as surety would be legally claimed to recoup part of the losses. Physical money was kept on hand by the lending institution and only a portion was ever lent out at any one time.

After fiat currency became the rule of the day lending became a license to create money out of thin air. When a borrower comes into a lending institution now they receive a loan of amount X and then deposit it in an account somewhere. The money loaned to the borrower only existed as digital sums in a computer ledger before it was lent out, and as soon as the borrower deposits that sum in a financial institution they are legally required to treat that sum as real money, and hence they are able to lend out about 90% of that deposit to a subsequent borrower. The subsequent borrower then in turn deposits that sum in a lending institution and the cycle repeats. The fiat specialists call this the money multiplier effect, blowing up a tremendous financial bubble made of imaginary money based on the promise that some day, some how it will be repaid at interest by the borrowers. The problem is this is not a temporary situation, as each good borrower repays their individual or corporate loan the lending institution then uses those payment to lend to subsequent borrowers the next week or month of the fiscal year. This has created the illusion of perpetual growth so long as the interest paid on the loans exceeds the cost of the defaulting borrowers who are unable or unwilling to repay their debts.

The entire western economic system is now predicated on perpetual fiat currency growth. However growth of this monetary system requires continuing economic expansion, which requires cheap energy inputs to keep the bubble inflated. As energy becomes less and less cheap keeping the bubble inflated becomes more and more difficult. When it collapses the consequences are unpredictable, so all of the vested interests are pretending everything is just fine and dandy. Admitting the fiat bubble is falling apart will guarantee a rapid and devastating collapse. Denying the bubble might keep it puffed up for another day, week, year so the rule of the day is deny deny deny.

In the end all those 'common folk' who you think have benefited will be left with nothing but the physical assets they own in excess of their debts. For the vast majority that means they will own nothing and remain deeply indebted. By this method the Pharaoh of ancient Egypt turned the free holders into serfs, and the pattern has been repeated multiple times throughout history. When people are convinced that going into debt is a good thing they become vulnerable to losing everything in the bad times and having made of themselves debt slaves they have noone to blame.
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Re: THE Economic Collapse Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby lasseter » Tue 14 Jan 2014, 16:12:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')
You have fallen into the trap of believing infinite growth on a finite planet can continue without restriction. International trade existed long before fiat currency and infinite growth became the standards of civilization.


O yes, I agree with everything you say about fiat currency, debt backed money, and when it's gone it will be a more honest world. I do not not believe it can continue with out restriction, only a blind fool would believe that. But what has any of that to do with a reserve currency keeping petrol in your tank and computers from China arriving on the dock so you to read this post? Do you realise that when it all goes we will likely not just trasition back to some golden age of progress. It is far more likely we will plunge into a dark-age, like the roman empire preceded.

Do you have lots of gold and silver coins tucked away to trade with? Or a caskets of silks or tea? That was how international trade was conducted back in the old days before the US dollar standard and the British pound. If you don't then I would suggest you start stockpiling now, like I have, or be prepared to live a life of abject poverty. The reserve system will collapse one day and you and I will discover that life as an average person in a debt free world is not as romantic as some believe it will be.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')Before fiat currency was the rule of the day people who wanted to build or expand something had to scrimp and save to accumulate the funds needed, and they had to be very careful how they invested those savings in order to benefit from their efforts.


And that was a good system, but it was a system of another age and to get back to it we will have to rid the planet of a few billion people and rid the planet of most of the cars and computers and refigerators. Anyone who thinks we all have computers and refigerators because we are a smarter race of humans now is kidding themselves. We have all the things that make life the way it because of oil, and more so because a factory owner was allowed to borrow invented fiat money and build a HUGE factory.

I agree with you, the system stinks, but I like my access to modern surgery, I like the fact that I can access solar panels from China and oil from the middle east. That will all be gone one day when this debt backed money system collapses. There will be no food stamps, no fuel, no computers, there will be very hard times indeed for everyone except the 1 in 1000 who has real wealth stored up.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
') The entire western economic system is now predicated on perpetual fiat currency growth. However growth of this monetary system requires continuing economic expansion

You are preaching to the converted I assure you, but every civilization before ours has done exactly the same thing in the end. Read tainter's "The Collapse of Complex Civilizations" and you will see that every one consumed and consumed and often debased the currency and took on too much debt before their collapse. That is the nature of humanity and nothing will ever change that. Once you accept that you will have learnt a real lesson. You will be able to accept our current times as they are and use them to your personal advantage and the advantage of your children.

I have know of the problems for several years, now I spend most of my time on the personal solution, because it is obvious there is no collective solution. The collective solution, the world's political system, is broken.

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Re: A Very Important Reminder About The Coming Economic Coll

Unread postby lasseter » Thu 23 Jan 2014, 04:32:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'N')ow 60 years later Gandhi's speech is proving accurate that India is rising as a literal "3rd world" to rival the West.


The road paint on her ribbons of gleaming, freshly striped superhighways will barely have a chance to dry before they're rendered obsolete... quote]

I think james kunstler pegged it when he referred to the psychology of previous investment. They just continue building the old stuff that worked for 100 years because that's safe in their eyes. Humans always fall into the trap.
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