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THE Credit Bubble Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Unread postby MD » Wed 29 Jun 2005, 00:53:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('max_power29', 'I')t (fractional reserve banking) is actually taught in money and banking classes at universities by professors of economics, at least at the university of oregon in my experience. So the "fallacy" did not originate with Heinberg or PO.com at all. Its common knowledge for people that have been educated in finance in college.


The meme I was dissing was not the fractional reserve system but the idea that there is a flaw in the debt based monetary system that requires continuous growth or else people will no longer be able to pay the interest on their debt. I don't believe THAT is taught in university, it certainly wasn't in my macroeconomics class and since it isn't true that was a good thing.


It is true if expenditures continue to be higher than income, for individuals anyway. I think this is where the connection is coming from. The macro economy does not easily submit to simplistic models though.
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Unread postby max_power29 » Wed 29 Jun 2005, 13:39:53

The meme I was dissing was not the fractional reserve system but the idea that there is a flaw in the debt based monetary system that requires continuous growth or else people will no longer be able to pay the interest on their debt. I don't believe THAT is taught in university, it certainly wasn't in my macroeconomics class and since it isn't true that was a good thing.[/quote]

My macroeconomics class did not even cover the federal reserve system in detail if at all. Did you take any upper division finance/economics?

Our "money" itself is literally debt. It is not an asset. the all-mighty dollar is a debt. It is literally created out of thin air from issuing debt. NO RATIONAL PEOPLE will invest in anything that does not promise a return. Tell me, how in the world can the interest be paid without growth? Think of a Ponzi scheme. Why does it collapse? It is the EXACT same flaw. Ponzi schemes would work if everlasting growth could be sustained.
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Unread postby max_power29 » Wed 29 Jun 2005, 13:49:20

"Tell me, how in the world can the interest be paid without growth?"

I'll answer my own question: Hyperinflation is how the interest will be paid. Is hyperinflation not a flaw?
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Unread postby JoeW » Wed 29 Jun 2005, 16:26:03

When I read the subject of this thread, I thought to myself, "Yo Dawg, you heard about this Debt Bubble? This Debt Bubble is the bomb!"
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Help with Economic Bubbles

Unread postby turner » Mon 27 Jul 2009, 12:16:14

My friend is interviewing two academic economists next week about the causes of economic bubbles. She has interviewing skills but does not have an economic background. They have sent her highly technical background docs full of formulas etc. Has anyone got some suggestions on great articles/papers that might help prompt some good questions?
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Re: Help with Economic Bubbles

Unread postby patience » Mon 27 Jul 2009, 12:48:13

It's all pretty simple, really. Bubbles are caused by central banks pumping low interest money into an economy. Result is overconsumption, also called "pulled-forward demand" = people spending for stuff NOW, instead of waiting until they can really afford it.

The bad part is, there is no demand lleft for the future. That's where we are now. Everybody is in hock up to their eyeballs, so they can't spend and the economy tanks. Simple. Academic economists have many BS theories about this that are generally designed to confuse a truly simple situation. The truth is, central banks are the biggest blight on the planet in human history. Thomas Jefferson thought that central banks were more dangerous than standing armies.

Tell her to read the "Ticker" essays at http://WWW.Tickerforum.org/ , and listen to whatever she can find on YouTube by Marc Faber and Peter Schiff. I guarantee that the academics won't like what questions these sources bring up.

Actually, I don't think that academic economists have much of a future where we are going.
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Re: Help with Economic Bubbles

Unread postby mattduke » Mon 27 Jul 2009, 12:55:03

Banks cause bubbles by creating multiple property titles (bank accounts) to the same property (reserves). Borrowers use the new titles to bid on assets they otherwise could not have. The panic occurs when the property title holders attempt to exercise their property title (withdraw) before everyone else. Central banks make it worse by coordinating the banks to expand together, versus a free banking system where competing banks check each other's expansion by demanding payment. Of course, the ultimate solution is to apply property rights laws equally to banks, and treat the creation of multiple property titles to the same property as fraud. The government won't do this though, because they are the banks' largest customer. Must Read: "What Has Government Done To Our Money" by Murray Rothbard. It's available for free online.
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Re: Help with Economic Bubbles

Unread postby turner » Mon 27 Jul 2009, 13:24:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'I')t's all pretty simple, really. Bubbles are caused by central banks pumping low interest money into an economy. Result is overconsumption, also called "pulled-forward demand" = people spending for stuff NOW, instead of waiting until they can really afford it.

The bad part is, there is no demand lleft for the future. That's where we are now. Everybody is in hock up to their eyeballs, so they can't spend and the economy tanks. Simple. Academic economists have many BS theories about this that are generally designed to confuse a truly simple situation. The truth is, central banks are the biggest blight on the planet in human history. Thomas Jefferson thought that central banks were more dangerous than standing armies.

Tell her to read the "Ticker" essays at http://WWW.Tickerforum.org/ , and listen to whatever she can find on YouTube by Marc Faber and Peter Schiff. I guarantee that the academics won't like what questions these sources bring up.

Actually, I don't think that academic economists have much of a future where we are going.


Ok, I gave her a bit of history but I added my take on it:

The conditions that seem to be similar in these bubble events are:
1.Expanded use of credit at the high end of the market but also, significantly, among middle class and working class people.
2.Relating to 1) above, the existence of lots of money to lend in the economy via loose monetary policy (low interest rates and/or expansion of the money supply) – allowed by lax govt policy, and also low bank regulation, eg subprime mortgages.
3.A widespread feeling of euphoria among market participants as the good times seem to never end.

Obviously she is not going to quote me so I thought it would be good to give her some other sources. I could direct her to a number of places to read more widely but she is the mother of three young kids, with a lecturing job on the side and two books on the go. I wanted to give her something good that wouldn't require too much time spent.

I've read one of the articles she sent me tonight and it was quite interesting. These economists argue that people make decisions based on nominal changes in asset values rather than real values. ie they will sell out for profit on asset sale because nominally prices have gone up, but the real value of the cashed out price will now buy less like assets or other assets (assuming all asset classes are rising). But in a deflationary market the opposite is true - people won't sell out of their nominally lower asset because it feels bad that they are not making a capital gain on the original purchase price. However, the selling price now has greater purchasing power in an environment of falling asset prices. They seemed to be suggesting that these factors had an impact on the bubble, which I guess is at least a recognition of behavioural issues.I may have misunderstood as it was quite a complicated piece.
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Re: Help with Economic Bubbles

Unread postby patience » Mon 27 Jul 2009, 13:44:02

Complication is the stock in trade of an economist.

What they said is true about when people sell or buy. What they left out was HOW the prices of assets got that way, which is the only important thing.

Beware an economist with political ties. 8O
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Re: Help with Economic Bubbles

Unread postby TreeFarmer » Mon 27 Jul 2009, 15:03:24

Remember the song "smuggler's blues" by Glen Fry? There is a line in there, "its the lure of easy money, its got a very strong appeal."

That is what happens with a lot of bubbles. The "ITEM" is seen by non-owners as going up in value really quickly so people buy in trying to make "easy money."

The internet bubble and the housing bubble are two recent examples of this.

TF
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Credit Bubble Watch

Unread postby deMolay » Sat 08 Aug 2009, 13:40:28

Notice how Obama is following Chavez tactics. http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/cr ... t_id=10257
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