by turner » Mon 27 Jul 2009, 13:24:22
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'I')t's all pretty simple, really. Bubbles are caused by central banks pumping low interest money into an economy. Result is overconsumption, also called "pulled-forward demand" = people spending for stuff NOW, instead of waiting until they can really afford it.
The bad part is, there is no demand lleft for the future. That's where we are now. Everybody is in hock up to their eyeballs, so they can't spend and the economy tanks. Simple. Academic economists have many BS theories about this that are generally designed to confuse a truly simple situation. The truth is, central banks are the biggest blight on the planet in human history. Thomas Jefferson thought that central banks were more dangerous than standing armies.
Tell her to read the "Ticker" essays at
http://WWW.Tickerforum.org/ , and listen to whatever she can find on YouTube by Marc Faber and Peter Schiff. I guarantee that the academics won't like what questions these sources bring up.
Actually, I don't think that academic economists have much of a future where we are going.
Ok, I gave her a bit of history but I added my take on it:
The conditions that seem to be similar in these bubble events are:
1.Expanded use of credit at the high end of the market but also, significantly, among middle class and working class people.
2.Relating to 1) above, the existence of lots of money to lend in the economy via loose monetary policy (low interest rates and/or expansion of the money supply) – allowed by lax govt policy, and also low bank regulation, eg subprime mortgages.
3.A widespread feeling of euphoria among market participants as the good times seem to never end.
Obviously she is not going to quote me so I thought it would be good to give her some other sources. I could direct her to a number of places to read more widely but she is the mother of three young kids, with a lecturing job on the side and two books on the go. I wanted to give her something good that wouldn't require too much time spent.
I've read one of the articles she sent me tonight and it was quite interesting. These economists argue that people make decisions based on nominal changes in asset values rather than real values. ie they will sell out for profit on asset sale because nominally prices have gone up, but the real value of the cashed out price will now buy less like assets or other assets (assuming all asset classes are rising). But in a deflationary market the opposite is true - people won't sell out of their nominally lower asset because it feels bad that they are not making a capital gain on the original purchase price. However, the selling price now has greater purchasing power in an environment of falling asset prices. They seemed to be suggesting that these factors had an impact on the bubble, which I guess is at least a recognition of behavioural issues.I may have misunderstood as it was quite a complicated piece.