[Roy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')all Street may be committing suicide.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', 'T')he shining star of American retail: Dollar Store

[Serial_Worrier]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', 'T')he shining star of American retail: Dollar Store

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', '[')size=130]Can you get a 6-dollar burger at that store? Notice all the obese people there.[/size]

[IgnoranceIsBliss]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', 'T')he shining star of American retail: Dollar Store

[jbrovont]

The Dollar Tree sign is green. Plus when Bernake looks out the window of his private jet, walmart looks pretty busy from way up there.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'W')hat happened to the green shoots?

[Cyrus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', ' ') The ultimate American retail store would include within one location all of the following: (1) Dollar Tree styled ultra-discount store; + (2) fast food restaurant; + (3) pawn shop; + (4) check-cashing services for welfare & unemployment checks; + (5) sports bar with multiple big-screens & happy hour specials; + (6) drug store (specializing in Prozac prescriptions).

[Tyler_JC]

Personally, I prefer BJ's Wholesale or Ocean State Job Lot for my discount shopping.

Ocean State Job Lot is great because the entire store looks like a group of vandals just went through there. Half the stuff is lying on the floor and everything looks just a little bit damaged. Sure, the toys are a little toxic. But how else is a kid going to learn what is safe and not safe to put in his mouth?

I got a great axe there for like 12 dollars. I made a joke about needing bleach and a shovel too but the clerk didn't seem to get it. Oh well, you can't get everything in one place.

As for the American consumer, I wouldn't be investing in Coach or Saks Fifth Avenue.



Household debt has doubled since 2000 while family incomes have largely stagnated. We added nearly 7 trillion dollars in NEW debt in just 8 or 9 years.

Looking at it on a % of GDP basis is just as scary:



We're going to need to save trillions of dollars over the next decade just to bring us back to the same levels of debt that we experienced in the late 1990s.

Unfortunately, households will have trouble saving enough money to compensate for the explosion in government debt.

US debt to GDP will continue to skyrocket regardless of how many coupons J6P clips and how many trips to Dollar Tree he makes.

[patience]

GDP is sort of misleading, if I understand it right. I think it is the total of all goods and services for a year. That would include the 3 bucks I pay for an oil filter--and the $1.90 the store paid for it---AND the $1.10 the factory got for it. So I spend 3 bucks, and the GDP goes up $3 + $1.90 + $1.10 = $6!!! Am I right? If so, let's estimate that the REAL GDP is half or less of the advertised total of what is really produced in this country. Does that mean that the debt-to-GDP % should be 650%? Or not? I don't know. It doesn't make any sense to me to count the same money twice and say you are rich......

But even ignoring the above idea, to pay off debt that equals 3 1/4 times GDP, or 3.25 x our national income, would take it all for 3.25 years. But if we allow 2/3 of our income to live on, we can only pay 1/3 as much per years, so it takes 3 times as long, or 9.75 years. and GDP is decreasing, right? So, how long would it REALLY take to pay down our debts to even half the current level? And no matter how hard the individuals try to pay down debt, the govt is still increasing their debt. People who lost their job are not going to be paying down debt, nor paying taxes, and some govt aid is going their way, meaning the rest of us either help pay for their aid now, or it is added to the debt. I don't see our debt being reduced voluntarily in the near future.

THAT'S why I am convinced that our currency will be devalued, because there simply is no way to pay it off in a failing economy. I know, my logic is full of holes, and accountants can play with numbers and make them say whatever they want. But they cannot make a broke man, or country, solvent.

[Tyler_JC]

GDP for people who've never taken an economics class$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')conomic growth is measured in terms of an increase in the size of a nation's economy. A broad measure of an economy's size is its output. The most widely-used measure of economic output is the Gross Domestic Product (abbreviated GDP).

GDP generally is defined as the market value of the goods and services produced by a country. One way to calculate a nation's GDP is to sum all expenditures in the country. This method is known as the expenditure approach and is described below.

Expenditure Approach to Calculating GDP: The expenditure approach calculates GDP by summing the four possible types of expenditures as follows:
GDP = Consumption
+ Investment
+ Government Purchases
+ Net Exports

Consumption is the largest component of the GDP. In the U.S., the largest and most stable component of consumption is services. Consumption is calculated by adding durable and non-durable goods and services expenditures. It is unaffected by the estimated value of imported goods.

Investment includes investment in fixed assets and increases in inventory.

Government purchases are equal to the government expenditures less government transfer payments (welfare, unemployment payouts, etc.)

Net exports are exports minus imports. Imports are subtracted since GDP is defined as the output of the domestic economy.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '[')url=http://www.quickmba.com/econ/macro/gdp/]GDP for people who've never taken an economics class[/url]

[patience]

Thanks, folks. I always wondered about GDP. So, when I sell something it is a LOSS? Another accounting construct that makes no sense at all to me, but I'll take your word for that being how they do it. My wife is an accountant. She hasn't said anything about money that I understood in 45 years.

Maybe this thinking has infected J6P? That could explain how he thought he was rich enough to buy all the crap he owes for now.

edit: Oh, wait. Okay, so when I make something, I gained (nevermind that I spent money to make it), and when I sell something I lost, because i no longer have it. I only have MONEY, instead. Does that say something about the value of having money, rather than real stuff? Probably not, although I'd rather have real stuff.

But then double entry accounting says that if I buy stuff to make something, that is a DEBIT to my account, although I HAVE the stuff, right? And when I sell the thing I made, that sale is a CREDIT to my account, even though I DON't have the stuff, and they won't pay me for a month, it is still a "receivable". R-i-g-h-t.

My business accounting is simple. When I put my pants on in the morning, I put a hundred bucks in my pocket. I make change from that, and whatever i get paid goes in my pocket. At the end of the day, I take out the money, put $100 on the dresser, and whatever is left is profit. Works for me. It's a damned shame that the govt doesn't operate like that.

[Caffeine]

Patience,

Chapter 16 of Chris Martenson's Crash Course:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcour ... zy-numbers

It does a pretty good job of criticizing how CPI and GDP are calculated. I don't know if you've seen it before, but I recommend it.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'G')DP is sort of misleading, if I understand it right. I think it is the total of all goods and services for a year. That would include the 3 bucks I pay for an oil filter--and the $1.90 the store paid for it---AND the $1.10 the factory got for it. So I spend 3 bucks, and the GDP goes up $3 + $1.90 + $1.10 = $6!!! Am I right?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
There are five Starbucks coffee shops within an easy, 10-minute walk from my apartment in the central business district of China's capital city. That may come as a surprise. But Starbucks has become as much a part of daily life in China's major metropolises as it has in America. Starbucks already has more than 3,000 stores in 136 cities in the Middle Kingdom. And with a new shop opening about every 15 hours in the country, Starbucks is targeting 5,000 outlets by 2021. China is so critical to the company's future that it is bringing special offerings to the Chinese ahead of New Yorkers. In December, Starbucks opened a 30,000-square-foot Reserve Roastery in Shanghai, with a two-story roasting cask and the company's longest coffee bar anywhere. Only its hometown of Seattle has a similar showpiece. These shops are just one, small sign

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')The Rise of the Asian Consumer

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')We don't NEED fast crash doom ghost stories to know we have really serious problems ahead.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')We don't NEED fast crash doom ghost stories to know we have really serious problems ahead.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I noticed upthread various comments about how GDP supposedly works, re calculating it.

I have been reading "Capitalism Without Capital", which discusses the rise, place, and calculation of increasingly important intangible assets (i.e. software, training skilled employees, complex production processes, etc), vs. the traditional "if you drop it on your foot you hurt yourself" assets that historically were the bulk of business capital assets.

I noticed references to a couple books on the history of the modern GDP measures, decisions on how things are calculated, etc. (Sigh, the need to learn more to understand things never ceases, and in fact it accelerates).

Since almost all of us (including yours truly) aren't economists, I wondered how many folks here might have an interest in a summary of how such a book/books say modern GDP calculations work -- assuming I can put together a useful brief summary from reading such books over the coming weeks or so. (I can promise honesty, but no special insight).

(Given how much argument there is on this site over time on the use of GDP re economic health of countries, I thought it might be a worthy topic).

Just thought I'd ask, as it's not like I don't have other projects with higher priority, unless there is real interest.

Thanks for any thoughts, in advance.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')Which is great news for the global economy and should be a steady new component of global GDP growth.

The bad news, of course, if a finite planet with finite resources and an AGW problem which this can only continue to exacerbate.

But no worries! With endless can-kicking opportunities like the hapless Paris Climate Accords, what can go wrong? Capitalists get GDP growth, and we're "addressing" AGW and resource problems.

Longer term, global problems from too much aggregate demand for stuff from humanity seem completely overwhelming, at least realistically. We don't NEED fast crash doom ghost stories to know we have really serious problems ahead.