[ampere]

http://www.themoneyblogs.com/bloggin/my ... -glut.html

[mekrob]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')nstead of an oil shortage in a few years, we’re now facing a coming glut, as economics predicts we should.

[Aaron]

What remains unknown is ultimate extraction rate, & EROEI.

There might be billions of additional barrels out there somewhere, but what counts is the production rate... how much how fast?
How will today's new oil discoveries compare to depletion rates for existing fields? Depending on what depletion looks like over the next decade, finds like this may become all but irrelevant; eclipsed by much larger depletion figures.

Peak Oil theory, is about exactly this issue in fact, and Mr. Esser's comments strengthen that theory.

Peak Oil theory as formulated by Dr. Colin Campbell says that as conventional oil peaks & declines in production, we will be forced to use more & more expensive, unconventional sources for our hydrocarbon needs.

peak oil = peak “conventional” oil.

Finally, we calmly sit here discussing the release of even more greenhouse gases & carbon as Greenland is melting into the sea.

For Shame

[MrBill]

With the IMF forecasting global growth at 4.9% in 2007, most of that coming from developing countries that typically use more energy per unit of output, I really think any glut will be quickly consumed.

Not to mention those time lags between exploration, drilling, extraction, transport, refining and distribution that cost literally hundreds of millions of dollars to complete at each individual stage. But the reality is no matter how much money you throw at these projects there is a limit to how quickly these additional barrels can come online.

New and existing drilling rigs are fully bought, booked and paid for up until past 2010, so any temporary relief that such news brings is quite fleeting in the big picture, and does not address our almost total dependence on fossil fuels in general and accompanying rapid build-up of greenhouse gases as Aaron has mentioned.

[ClubOfRomeII]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')
Finally, we calmly sit here discussing the release of even more greenhouse gases & carbon as Greenland is melting into the sea.

For Shame

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')
Finally, we calmly sit here discussing the release of even more greenhouse gases & carbon as Greenland is melting into the sea.

For Shame

[ClubOfRomeII]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')
Agreed... the scariest part of Global Climate change is the cascading release of carbon & related compounds from naturally sequestered sources as you mentioned.

[seahorse2]

First, the pessimist lawyer in me comments about this new Gulf oil find - this find occured in 2004 without any hype. So, why re-release the info now? Could it be the upcoming November elections in the US? Without a doubt, Republicans are paying the price in the polls for high gas prices - so there's definitely incentive to find good news on the gas front. Second, notice gas prices are dropping before the upcoming elections? The same thing happened in the 2004 presidential election, gas prices in the States when down before the election, about this same time period.

Let's assume, though, that there's lots of oil down there below 20,000 feet, and let's also assume is almost all oil and not gas. Let's further assume there's no economic recession before then to justify pumping the oil out. Let's then assume also there are no delays, and that by 2012, we are pumping oil at the maximum possible rate. I've seen comments that it might pump out 400kbpd. Okay, is this going to make up for the losses at Cantarell? The rest of the US? the North Sea? Saudi Arabia? Prudhoe Bay? No.

Keep in mind that many, including PFC energy, and Rockdoc here on this forum, believe peak oil will happen as soon as 2014. Even Saudi Arabia has it at 2015. I happen to find other graphs by Kehab and Taskforce unity more persuasive at 2012 for PO. Will oil at 20,000 feet+ save us? No. Its not enough soon enough. It may be enough to keep US tanks running in Iraq, but not enough for all our SUVs.

Keep in mind that the pessimists have said all the easy oil is gone. This find of oil at 27k feet is only further proof of the pessimistic viewpoint. Its proof that the big easy elephants like Ghawar are no longer endangered, they're extinct. If our salvation lies at the bottom of 27 thousand feet, we are all screwed. Its pitiful to hear this touted as good news. I find no comfort in it. In fact, its really quite disturbing.

[Niagara]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'W')hat remains unknown is ultimate extraction rate, & EROEI.

There might be billions of additional barrels out there somewhere, but what counts is the production rate... how much how fast?

[ProfitOfDoom]

Yeah, I love the "this disproves peak oil" comments also. If oil discoveries truely follow some sort of bell curve, we have to find more oil to get down the curve. All this discovery says is that oil discoveries are doing exaclty what they are supposed to...if we don't find more the bell curve theory doesn't hold.

[jdumars]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', 'I') find no comfort in it. In fact, its really quite disturbing.

[EnergyHog]

If I remember correctly the US uses 25% of the world's oil production. And of that we use 60% of our oil for transportation.

I've also learned that vehicle miles traveled goes up in good economic times and down in the not so good times.

So, I think most people agree that the economy is going downhill and therefore so should vehicle miles traveled (I've heard that VMT is already down but I haven't seen the data).

It seems quite conceivable to me that in the short term oil production could outpace demand.

And if the economy gets really bad well it seems to me that oil should just keep dropping in price.

The less people have jobs or make less money, the less they have to spend on oil and petroleum based products and the less they need to drive because they aren't commuting if they're unemployed.

I think Peak Economy will precede Peak Oil.

When we lose our world reserve currency status or have to inflate our debt away we won't be importing 23million bpd but perhaps we will be exporting some of our 7million bpd to get by.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdumars', 'H')alf of us are drifting into hatred and intolerance while the other half seek to build on the social and humanitarian progress of the last 100 years.

[keehah]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')eing a righty, it honestly seems to me that the left is being absolutely consumed by hatred and loathing of middle America.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('keehah', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')eing a righty, it honestly seems to me that the left is being absolutely consumed by hatred and loathing of middle America.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ProfitOfDoom', 'Y')eah, I love the "this disproves peak oil" comments also. If oil discoveries truely follow some sort of bell curve, we have to find more oil to get down the curve. All this discovery says is that oil discoveries are doing exaclty what they are supposed to...if we don't find more the bell curve theory doesn't hold.

[ClubOfRomeII]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')
I suspect when sweet light crude peaks, people will barely notice because of all the replacement fuels in the medium term taking up the slack.

[seahorse]

There's good evidence that global light sweet crude has peaked and it is manifesting in $70 oil and $3 gas that everyone is complaining about.

Peak Light Sweet Crude

[ClubOfRomeII]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'T')here's good evidence that global light sweet crude has peaked and it is manifesting in $70 oil and $3 gas that everyone is complaining about.

Peak Light Sweet Crude

[cube]

You guys may remember last year after hurricane (Katrina + Rita)....just when the world looked like it was about to fall apart, what happened?

Crude oil dropped $15 in 12 weeks, the steepest drop for the year. How low did it go? Somewhere around $55/barrel?

It looks like dejavu all over again. If history repeats itself we'll see oil
1) drop down to ~$65/barrel???
2) move sideways for a month
3) and then continue with the bull market.

By next year we'll see $95 oil at the peak for the year. Maybe it won't happen exactly like that, but that's what my crystal ball tells me. Rinse and repeat.