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THE Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Drill in ANWR?

Poll ended at Mon 13 Sep 2004, 18:58:32

Yes, we now have the technology to do it cleanly
4
No votes
Yes, we need the oil, and nobody goes there anyway
3
No votes
Yes, it will rape the land but we need the oil
4
No votes
No, if ANWR opens up, all the national parks are at risk
1
No votes
No, this is one of the last great wildernesses
9
No votes
No, bring on peak oil
8
No votes
 
Total votes : 29

Postby BitterSweetCrude » Thu 12 May 2005, 09:11:02

Lets not be so hasty... some quick math I was doing confirms what many of us have long suspected... (this may change what you think about the Iraq War)... in fact, Oil is more energy dense than blood! Yes, it's true! Oil is a MUCH better fuel than blood. Boy do I feel silly for filling my car up with the wrong stuff all these years. So maybe he's onto something about that blood for oil trade, considering oil is a better fuel!
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Postby Dezakin » Thu 12 May 2005, 20:11:33

I somehow doubt oil was the primary objective of the Iraqi operation.

If it had, we would have constructed a better sell than weapons we had no evidence for, or at least doctored the evidence better. We would have gone in with four or five times as many troops with the full expectation that everyone would hate us. And we would have never given any sense of legitimacy to any psedou-government entity springing up.

It would have been a much cleaner operation if we had been machiavellian about it. I think eventually you believe your own propaganda if you repeat it too often.
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Postby Kent » Thu 12 May 2005, 21:59:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'I') thought we were bringing them democracy.


Democracy and FREEDOM!


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'I') think eventually you believe your own propaganda if you repeat it too often.


I believe you just outlined in a nutshell the fundamental dynamic of the U.S. neocon administration.
There shall in that time be rumors of things going astray, and nobody will know where lieth those little things with the sort of raffia-work base, that has an attachment, seen only just the night before, about eight O'clock --Boring Prophet, Life of Brian
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Postby FatherOfTwo » Thu 12 May 2005, 23:21:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'I') somehow doubt oil was the primary objective of the Iraqi operation.

It was one of several reasons, in order of importance: get Iraq's oil flowing again without having the money go to Saddam, easily knock over a government in the middle east (showing to Iran, Syria etc. that hey you better hold the line or we'll do this to you too), get the US troops out of Saudi Arabia (a major complaint of the Saudis) but keep them based in the middle east, stop Saddam from sponsoring terrorism against Israel and last (and least) prevent Saddam from giving WMD to rogue states/individuals. (oh, and lets not forget how Saddam tried to take out Bush I, that had to be the icing on the cake for Bush II)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')If it had, we would have constructed a better sell than weapons we had no evidence for, or at least doctored the evidence better.

Everybody, the French, the Russians even the Iraqis themselves believed Saddam had WMD. Why? There are lots of articles out there where Iraqis have stated how pervasive the lieing and deception was amongst the scientists and Baathists... they were desperate to not disappoint Saddam. I'm sure even Saddam thought he had some WMD, and if he knew he didn't, why not allow the perception to stand? As for the US, after 9/11 the WMD angle was the easiest sell to the US public, which was terrified of another attack. Why do you think Tenet called it a slam-dunk?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
') We would have gone in with four or five times as many troops with the full expectation that everyone would hate us.

No, because they knew they were going to topple Saddam's army, it was in complete shambles. They expected the Iraqis would be happy to be rid of Saddam (and initially they were). Where the Administration blew it was in disbanding the Iraqi army, creating enough animosity that the Baathist's and Sunni's were determined to fight back. The ensuing chaos and lack of a security force created enough of a window to allow foreign fighters to infiltrate in in significant numbers and make the situation even worse.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')And we would have never given any sense of legitimacy to any psedou-government entity springing up.


The US doesn't give a rats ass who governs Iraq, although clearly they would have preferred a true puppet government. But they'll go along with the Shiites in power as long as the US military presence can stay and so long as US corporations can come in to get oil and privatize the government industries.
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Postby smallpoxgirl » Thu 12 May 2005, 23:31:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'W')e would have gone in with four or five times as many troops with the full expectation that everyone would hate us.


Where exactly would you propose to get all these extra troops? In case you hadn't noticed, you're having a rather hard time maintaining the number of troops you have. http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/200 ... uits_x.htm
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Postby EnemyCombatant » Fri 13 May 2005, 12:58:31

WMD == Weapons of Mass Delusion.

The weapons inspectors told the US that Iraq had no WMDs. In addition, there was no credible evidence to the contrary. The satellite images from the CIA must have been a hoax. Because if they had direct coordinates of WMDs they would have went to them on day one.

In addition, these supposed WMDs were not intercontinental and hence not a threat to the US. A threat to Israel perhaps. But what sense does it make to attack Israel with bio/chem weapons when Israel has nukes?

Lastly, Joseph Wilson exposed the nuclear weapons fascade.

There never was a case to go to war based upon WMDs. Remember how the UK plagerized their dossier. And how the US removed several hundred pages of the dossier from Iraq before allowing the UN to see it. They even used a commonly known crook Chalabi in order to buttress their claims. It's obvious this was a fraud.

They are hoping that we will forget by rewriting history (1984), but we cannot forget. Continue to go back and refresh your memories about how this war got started.

If this wasn't about the oil then follow the money trail. Who got filthy rich. The defense contractors and oil contractors. Halliburton just got a $72million bonus. War is good for business.
Now why didn't I take the blue pill.
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killJOY's latest screed makes tiny ripple.

Postby killJOY » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 08:35:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')As oil reaches $66 a barrel and natural gas is several hundred percent more expensive than it was five years ago, letter writers express concern about the environment around Mobil's proposed Arctic National Wildlife Refuge drilling project.

They should be more worried that this nation's original endowment of 220 billion barrels of oil is rapidly depleting. We are down to less than 25 billion. The world could consume that in a few months.



http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/viewp ... oice.shtml
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: killJOY's latest screed makes tiny ripple.

Postby killJOY » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 09:03:45

P.S. In my original essay,$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'B')ehind recent front-page stories of sporting events and weeping statues, there lie shocking confirmations that these delusional tendencies are alive and well.

The paper had just published a front-page story about a weeping virgin mary. But because the editor is a rightwingnut and "creationist," he took the liberty of changing the reference to other wingnuts like himself.
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: killJOY's latest screed makes tiny ripple.

Postby Sgs-Cruz » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 09:57:05

That's pretty awesome. Keep this thread updated with any replies / emails / hate mail you get!
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Re: killJOY's latest screed makes tiny ripple.

Postby linlithgowoil » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 12:42:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey should be more worried that this nation's original endowment of 220 billion barrels of oil is rapidly depleting. We are down to less than 25 billion. The world could consume that in a few months.


Thats not that helpful to mention i dont think - the 25billion barrels will take decades to consume due to the extraction rate, and it makes folk think about oil running out rather than the extraction rate declining.
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Re: killJOY's latest screed makes tiny ripple.

Postby BabyPeanut » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 12:44:24

Don't let it go to your head (unless it's going to fix that hairstyle.)
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Re: killJOY's latest screed makes tiny ripple.

Postby killJOY » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 13:43:16

Two emails so far:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ike
I agree that there is a crisis of major proportions looming on the horizon and that most of us have our heads in the sand regarding it. Most public officials talk of energy independence but seem reluctant to sell the hard measures (like $1.00 tax on every gallon of gas – to be used for alternative energy development and as a negative incentive to encourage life style changes, and/or similar hard measures) needed for really dealing with the problem. You referred to the passenger rail system as one part of a solution (not a hard measure but one that does require vision and priorities rooted in what's real). What are the other parts you see and, more importantly, what needs to be said by our leaders right now to move us in the right direction.

[followed by:]

Mike,

I am thinking you are probably right about solutions being local and
individual. Solar, wind, etc. won't ever be nationalized. Its probably to
cumbersome and even if it weren't it would likely be fought or hijacked by powerful interests unless they underwent a paradign shift. I have often wondered about solar (already available) and wind options being developed on a smaller scale for home use. I guess you could call it a kind of populist energy manifesto. Every new home would have to be so equipped. I am not sure how we help the poor...huge tax breaks if they have homes....but after that, what?

Might not respond right away. Am seeing off my sister-in-law who is
returning to California a state with a lot a windmills but a big energy problem.


Next:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ike,

Your article in today's Portland Press Herald was interesting and informative.

I'm a retired mechanical engineer who spent much of my 35 year career in the design and analysis of school ventilation systems.

Over the last few years there has been an explosion in school electrical energy use which appears to be getting worse. The most troubling aspect of this energy waste is that it could be avoided using sound engineering principles and not "state of the art" systems (a local example of "...expensive gadgets...").

One such system is "Classroom Displacement Ventilation".

You may want to investigate this area. It might make an interesting follow-up article.


So far, it shows there's some awareness happening.
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: killJOY's latest screed makes tiny ripple.

Postby jimmydean » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 13:53:56

Great article!
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Re: killJOY's latest screed makes tiny ripple.

Postby BabyPeanut » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 14:16:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')olar, wind, etc. won't ever be nationalized. Its probably to
cumbersome and even if it weren't it would likely be fought or hijacked by powerful interests unless they underwent a paradign shift. I have often wondered about solar (already available) and wind options being developed on a smaller scale for home use.

It's important to realize there are two kinds of solar houses. One is to design the house so that the house's structure takes advantage of the sun for climate control (heat air rises creating breezes, window shapes and locations affect sun entering the house at different angles due to seasonal changes. This is the best solution since it implies the system will last for the entire duration of the house's existance.

The other is "active", solar panels, lead acid batteries, solar water heaters with pumps, etc. Those may last any longer than the fossile fuel powered world does because they involve complicated manufaturing processes that are energy intensive. Complicated equipment breaks down over time leading to more energy expenditures for creating replacement parts.
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Re: killJOY's latest screed makes tiny ripple.

Postby bart » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 17:43:01

I'm glad you were able to get something into the local paper, killJOY.

You've got the negative side of Peak Oil covered -- the problem with false solutions, overly optimistic thinking.

But you're missing two critical parts to a successful PO strategy:

1. Forming alliances.
2. Presenting the outlines of a positive solution.

Following a talk by Richard Heinberg, one local organizer was irate at the gloom-n-doom sentiments. "What good does it do," he asked, "if you just send people home depressed, without any idea of actions they can take?".

A second talk by Heinberg was integrated with group discussions and brainstorming about concrete proposals. The result was much more positive energy, much more willingness to listen.

I know it's hard to think positive, but no one said PO was going to be easy!
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Re: killJOY's latest screed makes tiny ripple.

Postby erl » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 18:46:40

Nice article.

P.s. Now that you have revealed your alter ego, are you going to change your moniker on this site?

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Re: killJOY's latest screed makes tiny ripple.

Postby killJOY » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 19:02:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P').s. Now that you have revealed your alter ego, are you going to change your moniker on this site?
I've changed avatars like hairdos.
When I find something even crazier, I'll change it to that. People know I'm a nut anyway.
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: killJOY's latest screed makes tiny ripple.

Postby killJOY » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 19:05:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou've got the negative side of Peak Oil covered -- the problem with false solutions, overly optimistic thinking.
That's the problem with covering step one--awareness--in only 750 words. I'm hoping I can be invited back to write about possible solutions.

The problem is, everyone has different ideas about a problem whose extent we're not even clear about. We know something is going to happen, but we don't know when, how severe, how long it will last, and what the effects will be. This makes speculating about solutions DICEY.
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: killJOY's latest screed makes tiny ripple.

Postby killJOY » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 19:10:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')on't let it go to your head (unless it's going to fix that hairstyle.)


You're not going to suggest Mr Ray's Wig World, are you? :shock:
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ANWR Math

Postby Tyler_JC » Wed 24 Aug 2005, 17:35:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n my opinion, I think it would. It's not about becoming self sufficient, it's about showing that we are trying. I think there would be a change in how foreign countries dealt with us if we lessened our dependency on their oil. I'd prefer more research in alternative energy but, there's so much money tied up in fossil fuels that the corporate world won’t stand for it.
-quote is from another website, the following is my reply:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')hall we do a little math? (all numbers for America only)
Current oil usage, 20 million barrels per day.
Current oil production, 7.8 million barrels per day.
Current oil imports, 12.2 million barrels per day.
Given 2% growth in oil consumption (slow by historical standards)
And 3% depletion (fairly generous by historical standards)
2010 (ANWR begins production, but no on the market yet)
Oil usage, 22.1 million barrels per day.
Oil production, 6.7 million barrels per day.
Oil imports, 15.4 million barrels per day.
2015 (ANWR is pumping full...somehow)
Oil usage, 24.4 million barrels per day.
Oil production, 6.75 million barrels per day
Oil imports, 17.65 million barrels per day
Oh yeah, those oil exporting countries will really "get the message".
:roll:
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