by shady28 » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 08:30:51
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hope_full', 'M')y husband has been saving money for retirement his entire working life and he was hoping to retire within 24 months. Despite my pleadings, he's hung onto the 401K (which has the bulk of his lifetime savings), fearful of taking the penalty for selling out prior to retirement. And now he says he might as well hang on "for the long run."
I read this article to him last night (about Congress' plans for retirement funds) and he was pretty rattled. My question is, where DO you put your money?? The buzz words today are "preserving wealth" but where exactly would you put a lifetime of savings to preserve it?
I've spent a ridiculous amount of time researching this topic and can't find any satisfying answers.
The problem with the current mantra about stocks (and what's been said for the past 5 years or so) is that most people only know what they have seen for the prior 20-25 years.
ie, most of the time you see a market analysis on stocks, they look at markets over the past 25 years or so. Any really long term analysis shows that we have been in a secular bull market for the majority of that time (1981-2000). More importantly, the stock markets tend to move in approximately 20 year phases. The last 17-20 year bull phase ended around 2000.
Here is one way of looking at it :
link If you combine the periods in the above chart, then look at the CPI adjusted dow in the link below (the light green line). Basically there was no real bull market in the dow after the 2000 dot com crash.
link Based on the history of the dow and the economic cycles, the next time that the stock market will be a good 'deal' will probably be around 2017, give or take a couple of years.
What I'm saying here is that, cyclically, we have been in a bear market since 2000. In real dollar terms accounting for inflation, we have not reached the 2000 levels again. Even now the media is terribly misleading, telling us we're back to 2003 levels in the market. That is the last time we saw these levels, but it was not the FIRST time.
The DOW topped at roughly 12,000 in early 2000. We are back to 1998 / 1999 levels right now, and that doesn't even factor in the bankrupt companies that got de-listed since an analysis of the index doesn't show the damage they did to their share holders (Enron, Tyco, Sears, KMart, etc).
The best places to be during the secular bear phases (we're 9 years into one now) are high quality bonds such as municipals, and treasuries. Most 401Ks allow you to do this. If the 401K choices available force you to put money in stocks, I wouldn't put a dime in it.
Another thing to consider is that, if you put your money into the 401k AFTER tax, you can withdraw your contribution amount without penalty.
Most corporations match your contribution by some amount once a year - that has to stay in or take a penalty, but it is 'free money'. What I do is put money in after tax, then withdraw it after the match and put it in a safe investment (treasuries) and leave the company match in the 401k. This way the money I'm actually contributing comes back to me after 12 months, and I can invest / save it how I feel is best. The company match stays in the 401k, and I tend to choose the safest funds. Right now my 401K is up 3.5% year to date in a fund that mostly does treasuries and municipals. As a side note to this, technically speaking if you are buying stocks for any reason other than the dividend the stock pays, you are NOT saving. That type of purchase is pure speculation.
Most people here buying gold or oil are in fact speculators, not savers.
Columbia Encyclopedia: speculation,
practice of engaging in business in order to make quick profits from fluctuations in prices, as opposed to the practice of investing in a productive enterprise in order to share in its earnings.