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THE American Congress Thread pt 2 (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby hope_full » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 06:54:11

My husband has been saving money for retirement his entire working life and he was hoping to retire within 24 months.

Despite my pleadings, he's hung onto the 401K (which has the bulk of his lifetime savings), fearful of taking the penalty for selling out prior to retirement. And now he says he might as well hang on "for the long run."

I read this article to him last night (about Congress' plans for retirement funds) and he was pretty rattled.

My question is, where DO you put your money?? The buzz words today are "preserving wealth" but where exactly would you put a lifetime of savings to preserve it?

I've spent a ridiculous amount of time researching this topic and can't find any satisfying answers.

HF
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby sittinguy » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 07:55:58

I would say pay off your home and maybe buy a second home as a rental. That would atleast bring in monthly income. As you said, preserve, don't worry about profit.

I don't know what to do either
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby shady28 » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 08:30:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hope_full', 'M')y husband has been saving money for retirement his entire working life and he was hoping to retire within 24 months. Despite my pleadings, he's hung onto the 401K (which has the bulk of his lifetime savings), fearful of taking the penalty for selling out prior to retirement. And now he says he might as well hang on "for the long run."
I read this article to him last night (about Congress' plans for retirement funds) and he was pretty rattled. My question is, where DO you put your money?? The buzz words today are "preserving wealth" but where exactly would you put a lifetime of savings to preserve it?
I've spent a ridiculous amount of time researching this topic and can't find any satisfying answers.

The problem with the current mantra about stocks (and what's been said for the past 5 years or so) is that most people only know what they have seen for the prior 20-25 years.

ie, most of the time you see a market analysis on stocks, they look at markets over the past 25 years or so. Any really long term analysis shows that we have been in a secular bull market for the majority of that time (1981-2000). More importantly, the stock markets tend to move in approximately 20 year phases. The last 17-20 year bull phase ended around 2000.

Here is one way of looking at it : link If you combine the periods in the above chart, then look at the CPI adjusted dow in the link below (the light green line). Basically there was no real bull market in the dow after the 2000 dot com crash.

link Based on the history of the dow and the economic cycles, the next time that the stock market will be a good 'deal' will probably be around 2017, give or take a couple of years.

What I'm saying here is that, cyclically, we have been in a bear market since 2000. In real dollar terms accounting for inflation, we have not reached the 2000 levels again. Even now the media is terribly misleading, telling us we're back to 2003 levels in the market. That is the last time we saw these levels, but it was not the FIRST time.

The DOW topped at roughly 12,000 in early 2000. We are back to 1998 / 1999 levels right now, and that doesn't even factor in the bankrupt companies that got de-listed since an analysis of the index doesn't show the damage they did to their share holders (Enron, Tyco, Sears, KMart, etc).

The best places to be during the secular bear phases (we're 9 years into one now) are high quality bonds such as municipals, and treasuries. Most 401Ks allow you to do this. If the 401K choices available force you to put money in stocks, I wouldn't put a dime in it.

Another thing to consider is that, if you put your money into the 401k AFTER tax, you can withdraw your contribution amount without penalty.

Most corporations match your contribution by some amount once a year - that has to stay in or take a penalty, but it is 'free money'. What I do is put money in after tax, then withdraw it after the match and put it in a safe investment (treasuries) and leave the company match in the 401k. This way the money I'm actually contributing comes back to me after 12 months, and I can invest / save it how I feel is best. The company match stays in the 401k, and I tend to choose the safest funds. Right now my 401K is up 3.5% year to date in a fund that mostly does treasuries and municipals. As a side note to this, technically speaking if you are buying stocks for any reason other than the dividend the stock pays, you are NOT saving. That type of purchase is pure speculation.

Most people here buying gold or oil are in fact speculators, not savers.
Columbia Encyclopedia: speculation,
practice of engaging in business in order to make quick profits from fluctuations in prices, as opposed to the practice of investing in a productive enterprise in order to share in its earnings.
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby MD » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 08:44:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hope_full', 'M')y question is, where DO you put your money?? The buzz words today are "preserving wealth" but where exactly would you put a lifetime of savings to preserve it?

Gold and Ground. Go for productive ground first, if you can manage it.

Got farm?
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby neocone » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 08:56:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hope_full', 'M')y question is, where DO you put your money?? The buzz words today are "preserving wealth" but where exactly would you put a lifetime of savings to preserve it? I've spent a ridiculous amount of time researching this topic and can't find any satisfying answers.

1) Find a reputable Gold dealer
2) buy REAL gold coins and silver coins
3) Get a gun and a safe (one cannot go without another)
4) Make sure nobody knows
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby Roccland » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 08:59:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hope_full', 'M')y question is, where DO you put your money?? The buzz words today are "preserving wealth" but where exactly would you put a lifetime of savings to preserve it?
Gold and Ground. Go for productive ground first, if you can manage it. Got farm?

Well, Most will tell you one can't eat gold. [see recent PO.com quote of the day - (deserving of the dunce quote of the day award to both author and selector)]

MD is right.
And this is how the enzyme works:
1) buy a piece of farmland at 100K
2) buy gold at 1000/oz

Takes 100 oz TODAY to pay that debt...

fast forward to a hyperinflationary scenario (Schiff/Roubini) and now gold is $5000 per oz.

Takes 20 OZ to pay that debt.

This is the "eating part"... You now own your farm...have gold left over...and the farm produces food.

But try to explain that to some around here. Dunces - the entire lot.
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby Roccland » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 09:05:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', 'D')unces - the entire lot.

Hey! :x Watch where you point that thing!


You quit. Broke the chains!!!!

member?
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby shady28 » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 09:05:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hope_full', 'M')y question is, where DO you put your money?? The buzz words today are "preserving wealth" but where exactly would you put a lifetime of savings to preserve it?
Gold and Ground. Go for productive ground first, if you can manage it. Got farm?

...
1) buy a piece of farmland at 100K
2) buy gold at 1000/oz
Takes 100 oz TODAY to pay that debt...
fast forward to a hyperinflationary scenario (Schiff/Roubini) and now gold is $5000 per oz. Takes 20 OZ to pay that debt. ...

You are speculating that gold will rise to 5000/oz. What if it drops to 50/oz?

I will say right now I think it's stupidly irresponsible to suggest to someone that they go in debt in this environment, and simultaneously speculate on a commodity using the money they could have avoided the debt with in the first place.

It's exactly this type of stupidity that got us into the current situation in the first place. People looking for a quick buck rather than actually saving their money.
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 09:14:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', 'B')ut try to explain that to some around here. Dunces - the entire lot.

Try to explain that it takes some time to learn to use that farm and that it is a high risk to wait to learn if you are expecting 500 mph in a brick wall...

that is lost on some people here.

and self-righteousness abounds on all sides of the debate.

Perhaps if you have a certain skill set. If you are abnormally talented, done well financially over the last decade or two so you have more resources to expend or love the risk you can try to time the market like that.

Most of us got to work with what we got.

There is no one size fits all way to prepare.
Know the situation.
Know thyself.
Make a plan.
Pray you have started soon enough.
Execute it faithfully.
Buy popcorn and wait.
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby Roccland » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 09:18:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hope_full', 'M')y question is, where DO you put your money?? The buzz words today are "preserving wealth" but where exactly would you put a lifetime of savings to preserve it?
Gold and Ground. Go for productive ground first, if you can manage it. Got farm?

... 1) buy a piece of farmland at 100K
2) buy gold at 1000/oz

Takes 100 oz TODAY to pay that debt... fast forward to a hyperinflationary scenario (Schiff/Roubini) and now gold is $5000 per oz. Takes 20 OZ to pay that debt. ...
You are speculating that gold will rise to 5000/oz. What if it drops to 50/oz? I will say right now I think it's stupidly irresponsible to suggest to someone that they go in debt in this environment, and simultaneously speculate on a commodity using the money they could have avoided the debt with in the first place.
It's exactly this type of stupidity that got us into the current situation in the first place. People looking for a quick buck rather than actually saving their money.

Saving money? like the USD... ummm yeah.

If gold goes to $50 the world is in a bone crushing defaltionary spiral and NO ONE is paying debts.

Best wake up before it's too late.
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 09:20:49

By the way Rocc, you already got your farm don't you?

How are the Nigerian dwarf goats doing? And that high altitude farm with the garden and the like? What about all the other capital improvements that you have made like the bunker?

Why didn't you take the money you spent on that and buy even more gold?

Love you guy, but cut those of us who have to choose between land and pm a break.
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby Roccland » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 09:24:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'B')y the way Rocc, you already got your farm don't you? How are the Nigerian dwarf goats doing? And that high altitude farm with the garden and the like? but cut those of us who have to choose between land and pm a break.

Goats are doing great...one wakes us up at 4:30 every morning.

Garden - not as much as I would have like to have yielded, but the amaranth EXPLODED - nice return there!

A break - yeah sure...no problem...might want to think twice about firing the first shot.

Love ya too bro!!!
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby shady28 » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 09:37:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', ' ')Saving money? like the USD... ummm yeah.
If gold goes to $50 the world is in a bone crushing defaltionary spiral and NO ONE is paying debts. Best wake up before it's too late.

If you were awake, you would know that is exactly what is happening right now.
Commodities :
Image
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby ubercrap » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 09:37:06

Ha ha, bastids, I have nothing! No 401K, no cash, no gold. See you in the soup lines 'yotches.
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby Roccland » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 09:40:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', 'S')aving money? like the USD... ummm yeah. If gold goes to $50 the world is in a bone crushing defaltionary spiral and NO ONE is paying debts. Best wake up before it's too late.
If you were awake, you would know that is exactly what is happening right now. Commodities: See chart Shady's post

Good thing I bought when gold was at $250.

Gee - a near 400% return.
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 10:29:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', 'W')ell, Most will tell you one can't eat gold. [see recent PO.com quote of the day - (deserving of the dunce quote of the day award to both author and selector)

Looking at the original post you didn't really address the question - is this "bunker" as in:
Image

In which case investment of any kind is in all likelihood irrelevant or futile, past Geiger counters of course.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ruth is - the guy is flat ass broke - is selling the small amount of preps to float from one living room floor to the next.

Sounds like he's following Orlov's advice to divest oneself of material goods and preconceptions and adjust to crisis as they appear, which is a perspective garnered from personal experience and observation.

Maybe. More likely he's just your proverbial ship sans rudder.
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby BigTex » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 10:52:07

If you want something that is prepared for most anything, try PRPFX.

20% gold coins in a vault
5% silver coins in a vault
10% Swiss franc bonds
35% U.S. treasuries
15% growth stocks
15% natural resource and real estate stocks

Reading the prospectus is like reading doomer pulp fiction--there are provisions for making fund distributions in the form of gold and silver coins in the event of market closures and it notes that the gold and silver are stored in UNDERGROUND safes at several locations around the U.S. I love that underground part.

22 years up
3 years down

Average return last 10 years = 10%

It's not perfect, but it's pretty good.

As for the 401(k), I would just leave it in the plan in the cash option if you are concerned.

I work in the retirement plan area, and the proposals you are reading about are non-starters for many reasons. These proposals are constantly floating around, they are just getting attention right now because of what's going on in the markets. The mutual fund companies have an excellent lobby and something like this would never get through Congress. Also, any proposal that takes anything away from higher income individuals will also never pass for reasons that should be obvious--the higher income individuals are the ones making the rules.

401(k) plans are actually much safer than most people realize. I don't mean the investments, but the whole structure of the retirement plan system is safe. If you have money in a cash equivalent fund in a 401(k) plan, that's about as safe as it gets.

Defined benefit pension plans are another matter, but I won't get into that right now.
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby jimmyz » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 11:02:36

too bad that fund isn't offered from adp
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby shady28 » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 11:05:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', 'S')aving money? like the USD... ummm yeah. If gold goes to $50 the world is in a bone crushing defaltionary spiral and NO ONE is paying debts. Best wake up before it's too late.
If you were awake, you would know that is exactly what is happening right now. Commodities: See chart Shady's post
Good thing I bought when gold was at $250. Gee - a near 400% return.

Inflexibility is not a virtue.
Take a look at this chart of gold. The break and re-test of the green line is quite bearish for gold. Gold needs to break above that line, and soon, or you'll be in another 1980s style gold crash.
Chart (very large)
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Re: Congress Salivates Over Your 401k

Unread postby roccman » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 13:27:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', 'S')aving money? like the USD... ummm yeah. If gold goes to $50 the world is in a bone crushing defaltionary spiral and NO ONE is paying debts. Best wake up before it's too late.
If you were awake, you would know that is exactly what is happening right now. Commodities: See chart Shady's post
Good thing I bought when gold was at $250. Gee - a near 400% return.

Inflexibility is not a virtue.
Take a look at this chart of gold. The break and re-test of the green line is quite bearish for gold. Gold needs to break above that line, and soon, or you'll be in another 1980s style gold crash.
Chart (very large)


Well going back to what md said earlier...first the ground then the gold ...plan right on schedule
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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