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THE Africa Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

The Scramble for Africa

Postby lorenzo » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 14:19:42

Please use this thread to post critical sources and interesting articles about the new Scramble for Africa. All major superpowers are moving extremely fast on the Continent. It's obvious that sub-saharan Africa is the last frontier when it comes to oil exploration and exploitation.
With the mod's permission, this thread deals with geopolitics, development and oil in Africa, mainly as a place to gather sources. (Please post yours in a separate post, I will paste them in here).
(sub-saharan Africa only, plz).

GENERAL INFO: GEOPOLITICS OF OIL & DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA
:: Catholic Relief Services [report]: Bottom of the Barrel: Africa's Oil Boom and the Poor http://www.catholicrelief.org/get_invol ... rt_one.cfm
:: Le Monde Diplomatique article: UNE PRIORITÉ GÉOSTRATÉGIQUE Offensive sur l’or noir africain http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2003/01/SERVANT/9856
:: BBC article: How important is African oil? http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3054948.stm
:: The Nation article: U.S. Oil Politics in the 'Kuwait of Africa' http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20 ... ilverstein
:: The Nation article: Africa's Oil Tycoons http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml%3Fi= ... &s=eviatar
:: BBC article: US Interests in African oil http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3054948.stm
:: NYTimes article: In Quietly Courting Africa, U.S. Likes the Dowry: Oil http://www.commondreams.org/headlines02/0919-09.htm
:: "african oil politics" - excellent blog: http://africanoilpolitics.blogspot.com/

COUNTRY FILES
ANGOLA & CABINDA
CAMEROUN
CHAD
::NGO monitoring the Chad Cameroun Petroleum projects:
Groupe de Recherches Alternatives et de Monitoring du projet Pétrole Tchad- Cameroun
http://www.gramptc.org/Actualite/Point%20presse.htm
:: Catholic Relief Services: Chad's Oil: Miracle or Mirage? Following the Money in Africa's Newest Petro-State
http://www.catholicrelief.org/get_invol ... report.cfm

CONGO BRAZZAVILLE
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
ETHIOPIA
GABON
NAMIBIA
NIGERIA
SÃO TOMÉ & PRINCIPÉ
:: BBC article: Sao Tome opens historic oil bids http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/3219409.stm
:: BBC article: Oil Key to Sao Tome http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/3070813.stm
:: BBC article: US naval base to protect Sao Tome oil http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/3219409.stm

SUDAN
:: European Coalition on Oil in Sudan (very interesting website which takes a critical look at what's going on in southern Sudan - where China's CNPC is the biggest player). http://www.ecosonline.org/
Last edited by Ferretlover on Wed 11 Mar 2009, 22:35:20, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with THE Africa Thread.
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Postby shakespear1 » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 14:31:35

At one time I thought that the worst place I have seen on Earth were the slums in Manila. However when I arrived in Luanda, Angola I changed my mind.

Hell on Earth is in Angola. In Luanda. The oil and diamonds there ( de Beers is back ) will not change it. :twisted: :twisted:
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Postby lorenzo » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 15:43:40

Luanda looks like Paris, compared to Kinshasa! But then, there's no De Beers in Congo... :wink:
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Postby shakespear1 » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 16:15:43

I had the pleasure of landing in Kinshasa on my way to Luanda. The airport looked Devilish. Poor country ( in terms of governance ). :shock:
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Poor Africans

Postby thorn » Fri 26 Aug 2005, 11:44:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Poor Africans hit hard by rising world oil prices By David Mageria
NAIROBI (Reuters) - Africans are struggling to cope with stubbornly high global oil prices which are forcing many to walk long distances to work or schools, go hungry as food prices skyrocket, and depend on candles to light their homes. Crude oil prices surged to a record $68 a barrel this week on supply concerns, raising fears of further fuel hikes in Africa where burdened families were already reeling from rises.

"If they are increased again, I will be left with no food to feed my orphans because (food) prices will go up because of transport costs," said Mai Wisiki, a grandmother with four orphans in Malawi's Chiradzulu district. Across Africa, prices at the pump are ballooning at an alarming rate, pushing millions of people on the world's poorest continent deeper into poverty and adding to the threat to the continent's forests, the source of much of its firewood.

Many rural homes in Africa do not have electricity and depend on kerosene to light their small lamps and cooking stoves in the evenings. But the price of kerosene is becoming unaffordable for many. "Nowadays I cannot afford to buy kerosene for my children to study, I can only afford to buy candles," said Margaret Njuki, a single mother of three and a tea farmer in central Kenya. The need for an affordable alternative source of power is also putting pressure on forests.

"Every day things are going from bad to worse. Because of the increase in the price of cooking gas, I have reverted to using firewood and charcoal," said Melanie Ndoh, a civil servant and housewife in Cameroon, where the government last week raised prices for fuel products by 8 CFA francs per litre. With transport cost rising daily, many motorists have been forced to change their lifestyles and are now trekking to their work places. Others have opted to ride bicyles while small traders hire handcarts to save on transport costs.

"I have a car that I have now parked. I cannot afford fuel because I have other needs such as paying school fees for my children, rent and food," said John Shiundu, a shopkeeper outside Nairobi's city centre. Students have not been spared. "I have to walk for eight km to school and another eight km back home just to save some money," said Lewis Nyirenda, a college student in the Zambian capital Lusaka.

"GARGANTUAN OIL PRICE" Although Africa's powerhouse South Africa has said it expects strong economic growth despite high oil prices, many on the continent say the rises pose a threat to economic goals due to soaring inflation and weakened local currencies. "The recent gargantuan oil price increases could be disastrous for African economies," Augustin Fosu, the director of economics and social policy division at the U.N. Economic Commission for Africa told Reuters.

"Although a handful of countries that are oil-producing should benefit, the vast majority of African countries are non-oil producing and their economies will be significantly hurt by these negative supply shocks." He said global growth is likely to be reduced which will cut export demand for African goods. Many African countries could also be forced to reallocate funds in their budgets away from crucial development projects to meet with a high oil budget. High oil prices are also raising social tensions and some governments are grappling with protests.

In the west African country of Guinea, the government increased oil prices in May to 3,800 Guinean francs from 2,500 francs prompting a group of armed youths to attack several lorries carrying rice, the country's staple food, to deter the government from further hikes. Some African governments like Ethiopia, Mauritius and tiny Seychelles are yet to raise petrol prices, but not for too long.

In Mauritius, the government's Automatic Price Mechanism committe is scheduled to review petrol prices in October. Analysts say prices will go only one way -- up. "If the price of petrol is adjusted as it should, the first effect will be a further deterioration of the trade deficit", said Mahmood Cheeroo, the director of the Mauritius Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Article found at : http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=8378

Original article : http://za.today.reuters.com/news/NewsAr ... 8-26T09010
Last edited by Ferretlover on Wed 11 Mar 2009, 22:41:52, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with THE Africa Thread.
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Re: Poor Africans hit hard by rising world oil prices

Postby Cynus » Fri 26 Aug 2005, 12:27:56

Behold the true face of demand destruction. Remember, this article could very well be our future, not just something that happens to those hapless Africans. Economists coldly refer to all this starvation, darkness, deforestation, and cold as "demand going down."
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Re: Poor Africans hit hard by rising world oil prices

Postby Tyler_JC » Fri 26 Aug 2005, 14:30:51

The noble sacrifice of poor Africans allows for the continuation of the wasteful lifestyle of me and mine. :evil:
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Re: Poor Africans hit hard by rising world oil prices

Postby MrBean » Fri 26 Aug 2005, 20:42:04

Good business opportunities for local candle-makers!

Honestly, I don't see any other major problems except food supply, and AFAIK great percentage of Africans are still substinence farmers using old methods. The poorest of poor, who never entered the oil-economy, will not be greatly affected, and generally, Africa will not drop from high, has less adjusting to make for post-oil economy than the wealthy and can do it, at least in theory, faster than North. It's the "higher they fall" factor which will make people do grazy things. The poor can share, by necessitity they have allways had to share, but rich will have a steep learning curve in that respect.
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Re: Poor Africans hit hard by rising world oil prices

Postby Omnitir » Fri 26 Aug 2005, 21:52:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', 'G')ood business opportunities for local candle-makers!

The poorest of poor, who never entered the oil-economy, will not be greatly affected, and generally, Africa will not drop from high, has less adjusting to make for post-oil economy than the wealthy and can do it, at least in theory, faster than North. It's the "higher they fall" factor which will make people do grazy things. The poor can share, by necessitity they have allways had to share, but rich will have a steep learning curve in that respect.


I completely disagree. The poorer the rich nations of the world become, the poorer the third world becomes. As we (the rich west) go into economic upheaval, aid will be cut, and those masses living in poverty will be even worse off then they are now. Yes the rich have a long way to fall, but the poor don’t have far to fall – with no safety net, all they have below them is death.

As for the poorest of the poor not having entered into the oil economy – that’s a fallacy. Everyone is hugely dependent on oil, even the poor who don’t have consumer goods. They rely heavily on the wealth of oil rich economies to survive. These people do not have some kind of self-sustained system to keep them alive; they rely on external aid from oil-powered economies. When the rich can no longer afford to provide oil-powered aid, the poor will die.

Those on the poverty line will not be spared the affects of PO simply because they currently cope without the consumer items we take for granted. As the article indicates, even the poor are hugely dependent on oil. Those in poverty will be the first to die.
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Re: Poor Africans hit hard by rising world oil prices

Postby MrBean » Sat 27 Aug 2005, 00:11:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', 'G')ood business opportunities for local candle-makers!

The poorest of poor, who never entered the oil-economy, will not be greatly affected, and generally, Africa will not drop from high, has less adjusting to make for post-oil economy than the wealthy and can do it, at least in theory, faster than North. It's the "higher they fall" factor which will make people do grazy things. The poor can share, by necessitity they have allways had to share, but rich will have a steep learning curve in that respect.


I completely disagree. The poorer the rich nations of the world become, the poorer the third world becomes. As we (the rich west) go into economic upheaval, aid will be cut, and those masses living in poverty will be even worse off then they are now. Yes the rich have a long way to fall, but the poor don’t have far to fall – with no safety net, all they have below them is death.

As for the poorest of the poor not having entered into the oil economy – that’s a fallacy. Everyone is hugely dependent on oil, even the poor who don’t have consumer goods. They rely heavily on the wealth of oil rich economies to survive. These people do not have some kind of self-sustained system to keep them alive; they rely on external aid from oil-powered economies. When the rich can no longer afford to provide oil-powered aid, the poor will die.

Those on the poverty line will not be spared the affects of PO simply because they currently cope without the consumer items we take for granted. As the article indicates, even the poor are hugely dependent on oil. Those in poverty will be the first to die.



You make it sound as if poor are parasites of the rich, and not the othew way around, or that modern globalized model of corporate neocolonialism is some form of charity?!

How, exactly, do the poorest of the poor substinence farmers "rely heavily on the wealth of oil rich economies to survive" (except in cases of acute famine when Media chooses to pay attention, which I don't mean to belittle, but are beside the actual point)?

I don't claim to know enough of all the complexities involved to form a well grounded opinion of Africa's future or poor-rich comparison after PO - or what should be compared to begin with - and perhaps the truth lies somewhere in the middle of dunno what, but IMHO the OP article is quite simplistic and condescending.
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Re: Poor Africans hit hard by rising world oil prices

Postby Macsporan » Sat 27 Aug 2005, 00:17:55

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/afr ... 308259.ece

A little article I found on the joys of life and death in the Dark Continent.

It's all their own fault of course. If they just did a bit more positive thinking they'd all be billionaires by now.
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Re: Poor Africans hit hard by rising world oil prices

Postby Tyler_JC » Sat 27 Aug 2005, 00:31:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '
')You make it sound as if poor are parasites of the rich, and not the other way around, or that modern globalized model of corporate neocolonialism is some form of charity?!

How, exactly, do the poorest of the poor substinence farmers "rely heavily on the wealth of oil rich economies to survive" (except in cases of acute famine when Media chooses to pay attention, which I don't mean to belittle, but are beside the actual point)?

I don't claim to know enough of all the complexities involved to form a well grounded opinion of Africa's future or poor-rich comparison after PO - or what should be compared to begin with - and perhaps the truth lies somewhere in the middle of dunno what, but IMHO the OP article is quite simplistic and condescending.


Green revolution.

The poor buying chemicals/fertilizers from the rich.

Increased crop yields.

More food for the masses.

Explosion in number of said masses.

Children surviving to child-bearing years.

Still no let up in the population explosion.

More purchased chemicals, more IMF debt, more hungry mouths to feed.

Tis a cycle of misery for those caught under it :cry: . (For us oil-rich nations it's a great boon to our chemical/fertilizer industry :) )

The third world countryside might be ok if the cities disappeared.

But with an ever increasing number of third-worlders moving into large cities, those places will become totally unlivable. I don't expect Mad Max gangs in New York, but what about Niger? Those cities will be early casualties of Peak Oil given their already weak economies.

Don't kid yourself, globalization has reached almost everyone, either directly or in directly.
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Re: Poor Africans hit hard by rising world oil prices

Postby rogerhb » Sat 27 Aug 2005, 01:23:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', 'H')onestly, I don't see any other major problems except food supply


Which is an excellent epitapth for their tombstones. In Niger poor are starving because they can't afford food despite it being on sale in the markets only a few km away. The invisible hand is quitely optimising them out of the picture.

There are plenty of problems in Africa, a major one being that national boundaries are set on the leftovers of European colonisation and not on tribal boundaries.

While people are starving some will still find plenty of energy to conduct civil wars, massacres and invasions to support neighbouring opressed minorities.
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Re: Poor Africans hit hard by rising world oil prices

Postby Omnitir » Sat 27 Aug 2005, 02:08:41

Tyler_JC summed it up quite well. Globalisation has indeed reached everywhere, and just like the rich, the fate of the poor is intimately bound to oil.

MrBean, you make it sound like you think that because the extreme poor don’t have cars, electric toasters and local Wall-Marts that they can get along just fine without cheap oil. This is far from true. Without cheap oil, those that can currently barely afford to eat and get access to clean water and medical supplies will not merely fall into poverty like the rich, but they will die.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Earlier MrBean', '
')The poor can share, by necessitity they have allways had to share, but rich will have a steep learning curve in that respect.

What exactly are they going to share when the price of oil makes their food unattainable, and the West can no longer afford to offer aid? All they will have left to share is disease, famine and death.

Yes, we did get rich by exploiting the poor. And with our riches, along with the SUV culture, we helped the poor in various humanitarian efforts, saving many lives, which essentially helped their population explode to the point where many lives depend of foreign aid for survival. As the rich become poor themselves, can we honestly expect the masses in poverty stricken nations suddenly become completely independent and self-sustaining?

All the evidence suggests that as oil prises rise, it’s those in abject poverty that will be the first to suffer.
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Re: Poor Africans hit hard by rising world oil prices

Postby MonteQuest » Sat 27 Aug 2005, 02:32:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'T')here has been a continuous debate about whether or not there will be a die-off of the human population post-peak oil. I think there is great confusion regarding this. Will there be a massive increase in human mortality across the globe overnight? It is possible, but in my opinion, not very likely, unless we nuke the oil fields. I think that what we will see will reflect the inequity in the world today; the difference between the haves and the have nots.


The early returns on my prediction. :(

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Re: Poor Africans hit hard by rising world oil prices

Postby seldom_seen » Sat 27 Aug 2005, 07:06:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'M')rBean, you make it sound like you think that because the extreme poor don’t have cars, electric toasters and local Wall-Marts that they can get along just fine without cheap oil. This is far from true. Without cheap oil, those that can currently barely afford to eat and get access to clean water and medical supplies will not merely fall into poverty like the rich, but they will die.

It is true that they have a shorter fall to the bottom (meaning no food, they starve). They are much more mentally prepared for the rigors of poverty than affluent people are though. They can take "nothing and nothing and make something," "0 + 0 =1" Of course that isn't true literally, but I've heard that same saying from the poor in Brazil and Jamaica.

Now take some suburban dude from like Marin county. Take away his Audi, his cellphone, his ipod, laptop, credit card, debit card, x-box, flat screen TeeVee, jet ski, electric shaver, golf clubs et cetera. Mentally the guy would be a wreck, and possibly dangerous. A poor person in the same condition would be completely stable and composed.
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Re: Poor Africans hit hard by rising world oil prices

Postby Omnitir » Sat 27 Aug 2005, 09:03:34

But does the fact that the rich guy is stressed really matter? The rising costs of oil means the rich guy loses his toys and is distressed about that, but he can still afford to eat. Meanwhile the rising cost of oil means the poor can’t even afford to buy food, and so starve to death.

I’d rather be distressed and alive then composed and dieing.

By the way, this isn’t a hypothetical situation, this is actually happening in the real world. Millions of poor are starving to death because the cost of oil has increased the cost of food. So the poor are starving, and the rich are complaining about expensive prices at the fuel pumps.
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Re: Poor Africans hit hard by rising world oil prices

Postby Ming » Sat 27 Aug 2005, 09:37:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou make it sound as if poor are parasites of the rich, and not the othew way around, or that modern globalized model of corporate neocolonialism is some form of charity?!

That is only the politically correct way of believing how things are, not the reality…
And now, it is reality knocking at everyone door…

40 years ago Africa was richer than now, and was developing very fast, but then new political correctness (and the cold war expansionist behavior of the then communist states) forced the colonial powers (and in fact the white residents in Africa) to leave, and the results were (very) far from good.

Now things are what they are:
Everyone that still believes in fairytales must only study the realities of sub-Sahara Africa to dispel those pious beliefs…
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Re: Poor Africans hit hard by rising world oil prices

Postby MrBean » Sat 27 Aug 2005, 10:12:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '
')MrBean, you make it sound like you think that because the extreme poor don’t have cars, electric toasters and local Wall-Marts that they can get along just fine without cheap oil. This is far from true. Without cheap oil, those that can currently barely afford to eat and get access to clean water and medical supplies will not merely fall into poverty like the rich, but they will die.


See Markos' post on this thread:
http://peakoil.com/fortopic11871.html

So what I gather from these discussions is that African coutriside (with allready high mortality etc.) will not be so greatly affected, when compared to current situation, but big cities (35% of population) are a different story.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Yes, we did get rich by exploiting the poor. And with our riches, along with the SUV culture, we helped the poor in various humanitarian efforts, saving many lives, which essentially helped their population explode to the point where many lives depend of foreign aid for survival. As the rich become poor themselves, can we honestly expect the masses in poverty stricken nations suddenly become completely independent and self-sustaining?


Well, at least they will be free of sustaining the rich, which should help quite a lot. :wink:

But seriously, that is the crucial question, can they and to what extent liberate from capitalistic globalization and build self-sustaining local economies? I don't know the answer, but in many respect they are closer to that than us.
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Re: Poor Africans hit hard by rising world oil prices

Postby MrBean » Sat 27 Aug 2005, 10:17:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ming', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou make it sound as if poor are parasites of the rich, and not the othew way around, or that modern globalized model of corporate neocolonialism is some form of charity?!

That is only the politically correct way of believing how things are, not the reality…
And now, it is reality knocking at everyone door…

40 years ago Africa was richer than now, and was developing very fast, but then new political correctness (and the cold war expansionist behavior of the then communist states) forced the colonial powers (and in fact the white residents in Africa) to leave, and the results were (very) far from good.

Now things are what they are:
Everyone that still believes in fairytales must only study the realities of sub-Sahara Africa to dispel those pious beliefs…



PC=bad, commies=bad, White Power=good, got it, ooky-dooky.

But what about those studies showing that racist etc. prejudies make one stupid? :roll:
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