Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

That asteroid... where's it going?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
Post a reply

That asteroid... where's it going?

Unread postby Jenab6 » Tue 16 Jan 2007, 03:37:14

Here's an assessment of the feasibility of diverting asteroid 1981 Midas into a collision with Earth in the year 2018. I'm posting this to show the potential military-political advantage to controlling access to space.

Note the relatively small size of the divert delta-vee. Only about 301.5 meters per second will cause the asteroid to shift into a collision course.

Elements used for Earth.
a = 1.0000001124 AU
e = 0.0167102192
i = 0
L = 0
w = 103.078101 degrees
T = JD 2454468.667 (4:00:29 UT, 3 January 2008)

Elements used for 1981 Midas.
a = 1.7761208686 AU
e = 0.6501608192
i = 39.835472411 degrees
L = 357.03080224 degrees
w = 267.74138625 degrees
T = 2453926.666 (3:59:02 UT, 10 July 2006)

Midas divert delta-vee.
dV = 301.4552 m/s
ecliptic longitude = 259.9383 degrees
ecliptic latitude = -48.6042 degrees
Td = JD 2457809.620 (2:52:48 UT, 25 February 2017)

Transfer orbit is an ellipse with aphelion at departure.

Elements of the Midas transfer orbit.
a = 1.776419 AU
e = 0.6495124
i = 39.82184 degrees
L = 356.6238 degrees
w = 267.1621 degrees
T = JD 2457377.22 (17:16:48 UT, 20 December 2015)

Minimum distance between Earth's orbit and the Midas transfer orbit: 97.8 km
Minimum distance occurs at heliocentric longitude: 176.623768 degrees

Transit time = 384.379 days.
Impact on Earth at JD 2458194.0 (12h UT, 16 March 2018)

Midas approaches Earth from approximately
RA = 14h 2m
dec= +35.1 degrees
Facing Midas on arrival is: The North Pacific Ocean.
A vertical impact could occur: NE of Hawaii, S of Valdez AK, W of Los Angeles CA.

Midas' diameter: 3.4 kilometers
Assumed density: 2200 kg/m^3
Estimated mass: 4.5E+13 kilograms
Arrival speed in transfer orbit: 28.304 km/sec
Impact speed: 30.432 km/sec
Impact energy: 2.1E+22 Joules = 5.0 teratons TNT equivalent.

Jerry Abbott
Last edited by Jenab6 on Sat 27 Jan 2007, 10:44:43, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Jenab6
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 564
Joined: Sun 25 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Hillsboro, West Virginia
Top

Re: That asteroid... where's it going?

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 16 Jan 2007, 06:08:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab6', 'H')ere's an assessment of the feasibility of diverting asteroid 1981 Midas into a collision with Earth in the year 2018. I'm posting this to show the potential military-political advantage to controlling access to space.

Note the relatively small size of the divert delta-vee. Only about 301.5 meters per second will cause the asteroid to shift into a collision course....

...Impact speed: 30.432 km/sec
Impact energy: 2.1E+22 Joules = 5.0 teratons TNT equivalent.

Jerry Abbott

I will give you a very rough estimate of energy required to divert Midas to Earth (within an order of magnitude of error), based on your data.
Your 301.5m/s acceleration/decelleration required to divert Midas is roughly 1% of "total speed loss upon impact", means 1% of released energy total.
That is hefty 50 Gigatones of TNT, 1000 times as much as largest nuke ever detonated. All this assuming perfect energy use...
This would have to be done by surprise and shortly before your "opportunity window" expires.
You have to note that competing nations would:
1. Make "last ditch efforts" to "randomise" asteroid impact area or to direct it to your country (you would face "struggle of control").
2. Set off all out nuclear war before the impact anyway. Your nuke plants (if you have any...) would become to be primary targets of enemy atomic warheads. The same would hold true for enemy nuke plants.

Shortly, all what you would achieve is total MAD.
User avatar
EnergyUnlimited
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7537
Joined: Mon 15 May 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: That asteroid... where's it going?

Unread postby Jenab6 » Tue 16 Jan 2007, 07:10:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'I') will give you a very rough estimate of energy required to divert Midas to Earth (within an order of magnitude of error), based on your data.
Your 301.5m/s acceleration/decelleration required to divert Midas is roughly 1% of "total speed loss upon impact", means 1% of released energy total.
That is hefty 50 Gigatones of TNT, 1000 times as much as largest nuke ever detonated. All this assuming perfect energy use...

Dude, energy is proportional to the velocity SQUARED. Diverting a 4.5E+13 kg asteroid by 301.5 m/s requires 2E+18 Joules of energy at 100% efficiency. One megaton TNT is 4.184E+15 Joules, so the minimum energy to be supplied by the rockets is about 490 megatons TNT equivalent, which is about the same as FIVE of the largest nukes. This can be done!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'T')his would have to be done by surprise and shortly before your "opportunity window" expires.

Certainly, there's a departure window for transfer orbits. I'll leave the technical problem of keeping track of the time to others. And, no, it wouldn't have to be done "by surprise." It would take more than a year to get "the space police" out to Midas to stop "the space terrorists," which guarantees that "the space terrorists" would have enough time to complete their job and beat it.

Even if surprise WERE required, space is big and telescopes do NOT monitor everywhere in it. The terrorists would presumably refrain from publishing their intentions or which asteroid they were going to.

Nobody else could get to Midas to redivert if the terrorists take the simple precaution of removing any unused fuel from the rocket engines. You don't think that "the space police" have specially equipped teams always ready to go... er, like a local fire department. Ding! There's the alarm boys, off to the asteroid ships! "Interceptors, immediate launch."

For what reason would nuclear war erupt if it turned out that a big asteroid were about to smack into Earth somewhere? I don't see the logic. The space tracking scientists wouldn't know why the asteroid had changed course - they might figure it got bumped by another rock at some point.

In other words, your geopolitics is no better than your energy calculation.

Jerry Abbott
User avatar
Jenab6
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 564
Joined: Sun 25 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Hillsboro, West Virginia
Top

Re: That asteroid... where's it going?

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 16 Jan 2007, 07:48:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab6', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'I') will give you a very rough estimate of energy required to divert Midas to Earth (within an order of magnitude of error), based on your data.
Your 301.5m/s acceleration/decelleration required to divert Midas is roughly 1% of "total speed loss upon impact", means 1% of released energy total.
That is hefty 50 Gigatones of TNT, 1000 times as much as largest nuke ever detonated. All this assuming perfect energy use...

Dude, energy is proportional to the velocity SQUARED. Diverting a 4.5E+13 kg asteroid by 301.5 m/s requires 2E+18 Joules of energy at 100% efficiency. One megaton TNT is 4.184E+15 Joules, so the minimum energy to be supplied by the rockets is about 490 megatons TNT equivalent, which is about the same as FIVE of the largest nukes. This can be done!

As I had said, my considerations are rough and only up to an order of magnitude fine.
I am well aware, that kinetical energy in Newtonian world (which we are investigating here) is E=mv2/2.
I am also aware, that largest nuke detonated was of magnitude of 50 Mt, and therefore your estimate should be 10 not five.
User avatar
EnergyUnlimited
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7537
Joined: Mon 15 May 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: That asteroid... where's it going?

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 16 Jan 2007, 08:12:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab6', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'T')his would have to be done by surprise and shortly before your "opportunity window" expires.

Certainly, there's a departure window for transfer orbits. I'll leave the technical problem of keeping track of the time to others. And, no, it wouldn't have to be done "by surprise." It would take more than a year to get "the space police" out to Midas to stop "the space terrorists," which guarantees that "the space terrorists" would have enough time to complete their job and beat it.

Such asteroid is obviously monitored by all major (and many minor) nations, as well as by "hobby astronomers". Any change in trajectory done 1 year in advance would be noticed and countermeasures to deflect it it (or at least to randomise impact area) would be possible.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ven if surprise WERE required, space is big and telescopes do NOT monitor everywhere in it. The terrorists would presumably refrain from publishing their intentions or which asteroid they were going to.

Anyway any important cellestial body is monitored often enough to notice unexplained changes in trajectory by many nations and individual observatories. Midas certainly qualify for that (after all even you are aware of it).
Massive launch from Earth or Earth orbit towards Midas would be also impossible to hide.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')obody else could get to Midas to redivert if the terrorists take the simple precaution of removing any unused fuel from the rocket engines. You don't think that "the space police" have specially equipped teams always ready to go... er, like a local fire department. Ding! There's the alarm boys, off to the asteroid ships! "Interceptors, immediate launch."

Even in final parts of trajectory minor changes of actual trajectory would be possible (enough to change an outcome of war, or to randomise it, if few months of notice are given).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or what reason would nuclear war erupt if it turned out that a big asteroid were about to smack into Earth somewhere? I don't see the logic. The space tracking scientists wouldn't know why the asteroid had changed course - they might figure it got bumped by another rock at some point.
There is no change of asteroid trajectory without a reason. Massive interference with asteroid would not go unnoticed.
Idea of plenty of rocks in the space, bouncing one against another is silly really. Such events are very rare in reality.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n other words, your geopolitics is no better than your energy calculation.
Estimate was done base on the data provided by you (eg 1% of speed change under assumption of 5 teratons energy total).
If you submitted rubbish in, you got rubbish out.
In other words your scenario is not better, than Moon fall on the Earth ideas.
User avatar
EnergyUnlimited
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7537
Joined: Mon 15 May 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: That asteroid... where's it going?

Unread postby Jenab6 » Tue 16 Jan 2007, 17:12:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab6', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'T')his would have to be done by surprise and shortly before your "opportunity window" expires.

Certainly, there's a departure window for transfer orbits. I'll leave the technical problem of keeping track of the time to others. And, no, it wouldn't have to be done "by surprise." It would take more than a year to get "the space police" out to Midas to stop "the space terrorists," which guarantees that "the space terrorists" would have enough time to complete their job and beat it.

Such asteroid is obviously monitored by all major (and many minor) nations, as well as by "hobby astronomers". Any change in trajectory done 1 year in advance would be noticed and countermeasures to deflect it it (or at least to randomise impact area) would be possible.

You are wrong on all counts.

First, let us assume that (by some lucky chance) a deflection of Midas was noticed a year in advance, and let us further assume that those countermeasures, to which you refer so vaguely, actually exist.

Does that mean interceptor missiles or rockets bearing teams of specially equipped world-saving men can get to Midas in time to deflect it? No. Hardly. The energy required for deflection increases as the time to impact decreases, and Midas, falling sunward from its apogee, is headed IN much faster than any rocket launched from Earth will be going OUT to meet it. By the time Our Heroes get "there," it's already most of the way HERE.

Now, were those assumptions you so blithely eructed actually any good? Again, no. There are no ready-to-go countermeasures. There is also every possibility that the deviation of Midas orbit will NOT be noticed a year in advance. Remember: at the moment of diversion the asteroid is still where it would have been if the diversion had not been made. It takes time for the difference in predicted and actual positions to grow to the point where it would be noticed.

On top of that, for much of the approach trajectory, the diverted path would merely put Midas at a slightly different distance along almost the same line-of-sight as the original path would have had it. It's not as if all the deviation is normal to the LOS. This is something that could easily be missed by both amateur and professional astronomers.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ven if surprise WERE required, space is big and telescopes do NOT monitor everywhere in it. The terrorists would presumably refrain from publishing their intentions or which asteroid they were going to.

Anyway any important cellestial body is monitored often enough to notice unexplained changes in trajectory by many nations and individual observatories. Midas certainly qualify for that (after all even you are aware of it). Massive launch from Earth or Earth orbit towards Midas would be also impossible to hide.
Although it is certainly true that the terrorists' launch from Earth would be noticed, they could begin on a course for Mars, then when enroute dump a telemetry and canned speech probe to continue on that way, while the main ship diverts from the original transfer orbit to intercept Midas... some years in advance. If the energy requirements for Midas nee Mars are implausible, then bear in mind that I used "Mars" for rhetorical convenience: the ostensible destination can be something else instead.

In fact, the terrorists don't have to lie about where they are going. They can go directly to Midas on what they call "a scientific mission." Assuming that nobody comes after them before they get there, it will be too late to send the "space police" when their true intentions become clear.

Furthermore, this is only a proof-of-principle scenario. There's nothing really special about this particular opportunity to divert Midas into a collision orbit with Earth in 2018. On some other day, some other asteroid will present as good a chance or better, and the terrorists could be in space already, posing as a scientific team and doing honest research on the lunar far side when they are called to "explore" an asteroid.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')obody else could get to Midas to redivert if the terrorists take the simple precaution of removing any unused fuel from the rocket engines. You don't think that "the space police" have specially equipped teams always ready to go... er, like a local fire department. Ding! There's the alarm boys, off to the asteroid ships! "Interceptors, immediate launch."
Even in final parts of trajectory minor changes of actual trajectory would be possible (enough to change an outcome of war, or to randomise it, if few months of notice are given).
I'm sure that you wish that were true, but it isn't. First, no government has the sufficient deflection instruments on convenient standby. These would have to be developed and crafted during a contractual cycle by the usual aerospace companies. That cycle is always more than a year long.

Second, let me repeat, Midas is inbound at 28 km/sec. Your interceptors, when you finally are able to launch them -- if ever -- will be doing good to have half of that speed relative to Earth as they fly out to meet Midas. Midas' speed on approach already takes into consideration the fact that the asteroid is basically catching up with Earth from behind {actually, from above (ecliptic north), and from the side and slightly from behind}. NASA space probes are usually launched to take advantage of Earth's orbital motion, but that same motion will handicap the interceptors.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or what reason would nuclear war erupt if it turned out that a big asteroid were about to smack into Earth somewhere? I don't see the logic. The space tracking scientists wouldn't know why the asteroid had changed course - they might figure it got bumped by another rock at some point.
There is no change of asteroid trajectory without a reason. Massive interference with asteroid would not go unnoticed.
Idea of plenty of rocks in the space, bouncing one against another is silly really. Such events are very rare in reality.
Pure bullshit. Asteroid orbits change all the time. The "reasons" for most of the changes are gravitational perturbations by other solar system objects. The planets' orbits change also, though more slowly. I have elements for the asteroid 1590 Tsiolkovskaja (1933 NA), which provided excellent ephemerides in 1933, but which sadly no longer do, due to changes in Tsiolkovskaja's orbit. A SMALL stealthy changing of Midas orbit would be explained as an especially unfortunate case of evolving orbital elements. Hence, no nuclear war.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n other words, your geopolitics is no better than your energy calculation.
Estimate was done base on the data provided by you (eg 1% of speed change under assumption of 5 teratons energy total).
If you submitted rubbish in, you got rubbish out.
In other words your scenario is not better, than Moon fall on the Earth ideas.
It appears that one of the things ignorant people don't know is who they are.

Jerry Abbott
User avatar
Jenab6
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 564
Joined: Sun 25 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Hillsboro, West Virginia
Top

Re: That asteroid... where's it going?

Unread postby evilgenius » Wed 17 Jan 2007, 05:48:06

The only problem with being a space terrorist is that you have no idea whether or not the thing won't primarily land on you.
User avatar
evilgenius
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3730
Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Stopped at the Border.
Top

Re: That asteroid... where's it going?

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 17 Jan 2007, 06:56:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab6', '
')Dude, energy is proportional to the velocity SQUARED. Diverting a 4.5E+13 kg asteroid by 301.5 m/s requires 2E+18 Joules of energy at 100% efficiency. One megaton TNT is 4.184E+15 Joules, so the minimum energy to be supplied by the rockets is about 490 megatons TNT equivalent, which is about the same as FIVE of the largest nukes. This can be done!

Exploding a nuke on the surface of asteroid would lead to some increase of temperature of it, but not to change of its trajectory in any predictable way.
In extreme situations (say caused by detonation of 490 Mt on the surface of 2 miles wide asteroid) entire asteroid would fall apart in random way and remainig debris would carry on following grossly original trajectory, with small random variation perhaps.
For that reason entire concept of predictable change of asteroid trajectory by means of nuclear explosions around it is a holy crap.
Small, random change could be made on the other hand, in attempt to divert asteroid from collision course.

Another way to divert asteroid on collision course would be to install on it rocket engines with few hundreds of millions of tons of chemical propellants to provide a means of "controlled diversion" (yet another crap).
User avatar
EnergyUnlimited
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7537
Joined: Mon 15 May 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: That asteroid... where's it going?

Unread postby Aaron » Wed 17 Jan 2007, 09:11:17

I thought we banned your happy Nazi ass Jerry...

Did I miss something?
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

Hazel Henderson
User avatar
Aaron
Resting in Peace
 
Posts: 5998
Joined: Thu 15 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Houston
Top

Re: That asteroid... where's it going?

Unread postby Jenab6 » Tue 23 Jan 2007, 16:25:26

Was I banned, Aaron? I never even noticed. You don't want to ban me anyway. I'm your resident expert in interplanetary billiards.

Asteroid #1 was 1981 Midas, and a summary of how to divert it into a collision with Earth has already been made.

Orbital elements used for Earth.
a = 1.0000001124 AU
e = 0.0167102192
i = 0
L = 0
w = 103.078101 degrees
T = JD 2454468.667 (4:00:29 UT, 3 January 2008)

ASTEROID #2.

Elements for 14827 Hypnos.
a = 2.846267652931 au
e = 0.6648563410087
i = 1.981468099658 deg
L = 58.07821235843 deg
w = 238.01783486 deg
T = JD 2453492.26244

Delta-vee.
dV = 188.6597 m/s
ecliptic longitude = 345.6933 degrees
ecliptic latitude = +50.42813 deg
Td = 16:33:36 UT on 15 Feb 2022.

Transfer orbit is an ellipse with aphelion at departure.
Transit time = 842.82 days

Elements of the transfer orbit.
a = 2.833653 au
e = 0.6722323
i = 2.72543 deg
L = 77.89377 deg
w = 217.9511 deg
T = JD 2458755.05

Impact speed = ~ 20.2 km/sec.

ASTEROID #3.

Orbital elements of 2001-YB5.
a = 2.349557177836 au
e = 0.862427471513
i = 5.490700413641 deg
L = 109.3451209415 deg
w = 114.2474452629 deg
T = JD 2453637.57768 (1:51:51.6 UT, 24 Sep 2005)

Delta-vee.
dV = 95.312 m/s
ecliptic longitude = 203.17065 degrees
ecliptic latitude = +18.25417 deg
Td = JD 2458237.91 (9:50:24 UT, 29 Apr 2018)
Energy required to divert is probably less than 2E+14 Joules.

Transfer orbit is an ellipse with aphelion at departure.
Transit time = 617.90 days

Elements of the transfer orbit.
a = 2.351648 au
e = 0.8607311
i = 5.587313 deg
L = 107.2139 deg
w = 116.2179 deg
T = JD 2457579.30

Arrival at Earth on JD 2458855.81 (7:26:24 UT, 7 Jan 2020).
Approaches Earth from Approaches Earth from ~ RA 7h 50m, DEC +17.5 deg.
A dead center strike would occur: Just west of Mexico City.*
Arrival speed in transfer orbit, relative to Earth: 30.3 km/sec
Impact speed: 34.2 km/sec
Impact energy: ~ 5000 megatons TNT.

*Ensuring that the direct impact takes place would require course correction during transit.

Jerry Abbott
Last edited by Jenab6 on Sat 27 Jan 2007, 11:17:38, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Jenab6
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 564
Joined: Sun 25 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Hillsboro, West Virginia
Top

Re: That asteroid... where's it going?

Unread postby Jenab6 » Sat 27 Jan 2007, 10:49:03

I must make a correction to my asteroid delta-vee information.

I just now discovered that when writing my transfer orbit program that I forgot to rotate the delta-vee vector from ecliptic coordinates into celestial coordinates. For all the asteroids I treated, the magnitude of the dV is correct, but what I called "right ascension" or "RA" is really ecliptic longitude, and what I called "declination" or "dec" is really ecliptic latitude. Origin at the asteroid, of course, not at the sun.

Jerry Abbott
User avatar
Jenab6
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 564
Joined: Sun 25 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Hillsboro, West Virginia
Top

Re: That asteroid... where's it going?

Unread postby Aaron » Sat 27 Jan 2007, 12:00:15

Hmm...

It's a cross-roads of ethics...

I hate when that happens.

Weighing abundantly disingenuous (& therefore entertaining) authentic frontier gibberish, against my personal distaste for much of your admittedly intellectual sounding arguments.

I mean I'm certain this all relates to White Nationalism or whatever you guy's nomenclature is these days.

And thus it's quite lame...

Math seems solid enough at a glance though.

Chaps my ass... having you using our bandwidth when you know how we feel about all that aryan noise.

As a Texan & an American, I'm inclined to let folks determine what's shit & what's Shinola for themselves by nature.

Still pisses me off though...
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

Hazel Henderson
User avatar
Aaron
Resting in Peace
 
Posts: 5998
Joined: Thu 15 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Houston
Top

Re: That asteroid... where's it going?

Unread postby cynicalheretic » Sat 27 Jan 2007, 12:59:35

Hey Aaron, guys like that are funny though. I am personally not smart enough to figure out if that is crap or not either so I am bound to give him a go. I can tell you though, that he is a big fan of underage blonde twin girls.

http://officialprussianblue.net/showthread.php?p=30465
cynicalheretic
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu 02 Nov 2006, 04:00:00
Top
Post a reply

Return to Open Topic Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest



cron