[lper100km]

Does reliance on the use of technology represent a threat to our survival?

The conventional wisdom is that more and better computerization is a ‘good thing’, aiding research into all manner of areas, improving telecommunications, advancing knowledge, etc etc. One of the early adopters was process and control technology in the manufacturing industry with the aim of greater control over quality of products and gaining incidental economic efficiencies along the way. At some points, the concepts morphed into the commercial aspects of industrial management and the idea of ‘just-in-time’ manufacturing and assembly received a huge boost from sophisticated software, powerful computers and specialized management consultants. This technology is applicable to any operation – in-house, local or to some global, sprawling company or consortia. It’s not a stretch to say that the implementation of the global economy could not have happened without computers. Imagine trying to coordinate the design, manufacture, assembly, delivery, distribution, sales and service of trillions of components and products using the telephone and a fax machine. Needless to say, the other major component of the global economy is cheap oil.

Where is all this leading? Well, the concept of JIT is not confined to manufacturing processes. It is a major factor in the national and world wide distribution of food products. How do you think those just ripe bananas reached that tray in the supermarket for your immediate convenience? Or those Gala apples from New Zealand (my favourite) arrived at the peak of their freshness? Interesting, you say and a tribute to technology. Yes, but it gets a little more scary behind the scenes. Once those bananas have gone from the tray, there are no more in the warehouse behind the store. You’ll have to come back tomorrow. Why? Because the next load is on a truck driving up from San Diego or wherever the bananas were landed by freighter or crossing the border after leaving Costa Rica six days earlier. In fact, all the supplies needed to replenish the store are on trucks somewhere traveling through the night from some supply depot in time to stock the shelves for the next consumer onslaught. The warehouse is on wheels, air or water. Your warehouse, and next meal, could be 20 miles, 100 miles, 1,000 miles or even 10,000 miles from your store at this very moment.

So what, you say. Isn’t JIT a magnificent expression of the way technology can be brought to bear on a business in order to maximize the efficiencies and deliver products in prime condition and for minimum cost. So it is, providing all the delicate elements of it’s infrastructure are not disturbed. The realisation of the efficiencies and lowest delivered cost is at the expense of the elimination of redundancies in the system ie there is no Plan ‘B’ Rather like an army marching too far ahead of it’s supply lines, has technology taken us so far that we are now vulnerable to metaphorical attacks on our own supply lines?

The whole distribution scenario (of food and just about all consumer related materials) is an outgrowth of cheap oil coupled with a huge number of layered supply infrastructures, each managed by control technology. Major threats are increasing fuel costs, labour disruptions, dramatic fuel supply disruptions from activities beyond our control, computer systems attacks, malfunctions, shutdowns, sustained electrical power failures, etc. I find it sobering that potentially and generally, western civilisations have placed themselves in a position where, theoretically, their food supply reserves at the point of final distribution, are no more than 24hrs. in duration.

Has reliance on technology pushed us that one ‘bridge too far’ by making a highly complex and vulnerable system seem effortlessly manageable?

Is there still sufficient redundancy in the system as a whole to withstand major shocks and disruptions?

Technology first supports, then enhances, then enables, then redefines and restructures and finally becomes inseparably integrated with the business enterprise. Each step along the way exchanges benefits for increasing vulnerability.

Where else has computer technology so penetrated the fabric of society that the absence of it or some other allied resource would place us at risk?

[Falconoffury]

As someone who endured hurricane wilma last year, I must say that the line between civilization and chaos is razor thin. I was without power for 3 weeks, but I've heard of people who had no power for 6 weeks. Overall, I would say that people were agitated. People's little brats were running around the neighborhood, making lots of noise. Some people living near me actually drove to Orlando to stay at a hotel for a period of time. I went to the grocery store, and of course the canned goods were pretty well cleaned out. People were in car lines for miles to get food and ice from FEMA at several locations.

Now, imagine if one of our biggest oil trading partners shuts off the taps one day and the USA loses 5 million barrels per day overnight. It would probably be like post Wilma or even post Katrina throughout most of the country. Take away the Fema trucks, and we'll probably have a large number of people wandering the streets begging for food or work, like the great depression.

[EndDays]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'A')s someone who endured hurricane wilma last year, I must say that the line between civilization and chaos is razor thin. I was without power for 3 weeks, but I've heard of people who had no power for 6 weeks. Overall, I would say that people were agitated. People's little brats were running around the neighborhood, making lots of noise. Some people living near me actually drove to Orlando to stay at a hotel for a period of time. I went to the grocery store, and of course the canned goods were pretty well cleaned out. People were in car lines for miles to get food and ice from FEMA at several locations.

Now, imagine if one of our biggest oil trading partners shuts off the taps one day and the USA loses 5 million barrels per day overnight. It would probably be like post Wilma or even post Katrina throughout most of the country. Take away the Fema trucks, and we'll probably have a large number of people wandering the streets begging for food or work, like the great depression.

[eric_b]

You raise some good points.

I've many years experience in the grocery business, and you are correct in that (at least in the US) it's all 'JIT' these days. Trucks come in with fresh grocery/produce/whatnot everyday (or a few times per week), which then immediately get shelved, usually at night. Most grocery stores these days have little stock beyond what you see on the shelves. This saves them from having to build larger stores to house the stock. Besides backstock is a pain to deal with anyway.

The upshot being the entire system is very vulnerable to disruption. A worse case scenario would be some sort of of disruption in the Winter (strike, oil shock, limited nuclear war... whatever). Those shelves would be bare in a few days, and unless things were restored within in a few weeks you'd likely have many hungry to starving people.

Oh and I agree on those New Zealand apples. Quite tasty. They actually have some flavor to them. Many of the common apples in the US (the washington ones) are starting to taste like cardboard. Such decadence to have fresh apples two times throughout the year - in the fall, and then again in the Spring and Summer (fall in the southern hemi).

[Kylon]

There is a saying, "A gun is only as good or bad as the man who wields it".

You should remember, technology is nothing more than power, and power in and of itself is not inherently evil, it all depends on who wields it, and how they wield it.

The problem is population is so anti-technology, and so un-tech savvy, that it makes them dependent on others who are tech savvy.

Oh, and if we didn't have such great technology, we would be fighting, much, much worse resource wars than we are now. You should take a look at primitive countries in South America, and Africa. Thanks to the fact that there are a large number of people, and very little wide spread technology to solve problems and improve the quality of life, people have to constantly fight just to survive.

No technology, no high quality cheap goods. No air conditioning, no medicine, no mass food production, no computers, no TV, no widespread base of knowledge as the books wouldn't be invented, as writing itself is a form of technology.

Technology isn't bad, technology is simply power, and depending on who controls that power determines how good or bad that technology behaves.

[lper100km]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kylon', 'T')echnology isn't bad, technology is simply power, and depending on who controls that power determines how good or bad that technology behaves.

[eric_b]

Unfortunately human nature is such that power tends to corrupt. A look at history will show this.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kylon', '
')
No technology, no high quality cheap goods. No air conditioning, no medicine, no mass food production, no computers, no TV, no widespread base of knowledge as the books wouldn't be invented, as writing itself is a form of technology.

[Kylon]

Oh Okay, I'm just defensive against luddites and technophobes. They scare me.

Sorry if I reacted too quickly, or overeacted.

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lper100km', 'D')oes reliance on the use of technology represent a threat to our survival?

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

Another great post from Seldom, you have a knack of putting things in a very easy to understand form, man. (So do a lot of other good posters here.)

To answer the original post, yes, it will be our undoing. When I look at how complex and specialized our food distribution network has become I'm extremley concerned, how can it not end in breakdown ? (hint, I'm pretty sure it can't)

And the guy going on about the "Illuminai" (sp), try Occams' razor, we simple built a system that is to complex and reliant on cheap fossil fuels. Thats' it, no super lizardman conspiricy. No human or group is bigger than the monster we've created.