Surprised

by **dissimulo** » Sat 25 Jun 2005, 20:34:17

I have been following and preparing for PO problems for several years. My predictions for how quickly events would escalate have consistently proven conservative. For example, two years ago, I would not have predicted that we would be at $60 oil yet, barring terrorist action. I would not have predicted that peak oil would achieve widespread media coverage yet. I did not expect to find myself wondering if the economy would collapse next year until 2010.

So, how has reality compared to your expectations?

by **killJOY** » Sat 25 Jun 2005, 20:47:27

We're only halfway through 05. I'm beginning to take Deffeyes' prediction much more seriously, Skrebowski's findings notwithstanding.

I really have no way of knowing when and how peak will manifest itself, but this year so far has been a jaw-dropper:

--Opec's repeated announcements of higher production ceilings, followed by price spikes

--The IEA press release describing how to deal with a sudden energy crisis, including banning private autos

--PEMEX's announcement that Cantarell is going into decline

--Canada's including tar sands as "oil reserves"

--The announcement that the North Sea is declining faster than expected

--The DOE-commissioned "Hirsch Report" stating that we'd need about a 20-year lead time before peak to "mitigate a severe liquid fuels shortfall"

--And of course prices, which just keep going up and up....

by **RonMN** » Sat 25 Jun 2005, 22:38:16

Yes, I think things are escalating very rapidly! The first time i heard "4Q05" i thought it was a scare tactic...But now everything points to the fourth quarter of THIS YEAR!

I don't like it...

by **I_Like_Plants** » Sat 25 Jun 2005, 23:42:46

I haven't been aware of this long enough to have a real perspective.

I do note a big excitement over oil hitting $50/bbl and then the media in effect saying "la la la look over there, nothing going on here" and saying nothing about oil's rapid rise to $60/bbl, that's telling.

One of the PO authors said something about how PO is less and less a theory, and more and more a matter of just noting the facts, over time. I'm sure I've paraphrased it, but you get the idea!

by **dissimulo** » Mon 27 Jun 2005, 11:20:25

The poll results are close to what I expected (so far). I find it disturbing that we, as the harbingers of PO, would be surprised by the speed at which the changes are appearing. I would have expected that we would be a bit overzealous in making predictions. It doesn't seem to be working out that way.

I find myself getting extremely nervous for the first time. I require about 14 months before I will feel my life is sufficiently "battened down" for PO. I can't cut that amount of time down and it assumes that we don't have any major changes in availability or pricing of goods during that time. I'm starting to think that I may not have that much time.

Kunstler just predicted Dow 4000 by the year's end. Yikes. I sure hope he's way off on that prediction.

by **DriveElectric** » Mon 27 Jun 2005, 11:35:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissimulo', '
')Kunstler just predicted Dow 4000 by the year's end. Yikes. I sure hope he's way off on that prediction.

by **Pops** » Mon 27 Jun 2005, 11:46:08

I thought barring a great big find or a great big problem somewhere, prices would rise through 06, fall through 08 (new projects and lower demand), and rise more or less steadily from then on if ASPO et. al. are near correct. So I can’t really vote for a few more years

But I will say I’m kind of surprised at how fast the Spinners have gone through all the excuses and scapegoats and the amount of press the structural question is getting.

I am somewhat surprised that so far demand is still climbing. Although the latest round of price increases hasn’t hit the retail markets yet the gamblers are still betting folks are willing to pay more.

I’m really surprised that the housing market is still going strong in the far out commute areas.

by MD » Mon 27 Jun 2005, 12:31:40

Hang on, don't get ahead of yourselves. Economies are starting to weaken, and don't forget all the mega projects coming on line over the next 20 months (petroleum review).

Let's see what 60 days of $60 oil does. It may just kill enough 4th qtr demand to balance things out.

I think we are riding the plateau, for about 20-40 months. 84mbd, occasional spikes exceeding that amount, but not on average.
84mbd that's it, no more.

by **Permanently_Baffled** » Mon 27 Jun 2005, 14:02:26

Events are moving quicker than I'd expected and much faster than how I would like !

I shall only be buying brown coloured underpants from now on! :lol:

I just need to keep my job to 2008 , I thought I would comfortably meet this target but now I am beginning to get very nervous!

PB

by **alexis** » Mon 27 Jun 2005, 15:07:35

When I first read about PO in september 04 it was Wolf at the door and I thought we were still ok for 15 years.
Then in april I discovered LATOC.net and this forum.
Today, I see the collapse of this society almost everywhere I look.
I have just graduated this year and I have changed my plans radically.

From my point of view, we are on the verge of the crisis right now.

I feel scare, but I trust change and life.

by **Licho** » Mon 27 Jun 2005, 15:33:08

Well we are still not at peak, many new projects coming online in next months, and production is still rising, I would say it goes as predicted by many..

by **PenultimateManStanding** » Mon 27 Jun 2005, 15:47:20

http://theoildrum.blogspot.com/ I go to this site to watch the oil prices issue. They publish the NYMEX sweet crude prices with two graphs, one current action and the other the past month. The past month one shows a disaster in the making with an obvious trend line to economic meltdown.

Surprised

Events have occured:

Surprised

Who is online