[Valdemar]

Hello, I'm new here having recently gotten into the workings of the PO theory and finding this fine website's board quite useful. It's good to have such a lively discussion group where the mass media are otherwise silent on the matter.

Anyway, to business. I was recently posing a question regarding this topic on another board I help moderate, when someone replied with something of a rebuttal to the idea that the economy won't survive such a harsh transition from cheap oil to ever more expensive oil.

The post follows:



So, any help on refuting this piece, or is he actually on to something? Help is appreciated, thanks.

[Valdemar]

EDIT: Actually, the post is too long to allow me to post on here, so here's the link. It's the post made by Sikon.

[Aaron]

Welcome to the forum.

What do you guys say? Bob's your Uncle.

Your target poster is what's known as a SoftLander (Lander), and is differentiated from "Doomers" or Moderates by his view that mitigating factors will cause a plateau effect and subsequent transition to oil alternatives.

He sites Germany's synthetic oil program in WWII & bio-fuels as transition alternatives, thus demonstrating that he does not really understand either of those topics in any detail.

Like Bartlett says, people just don't appreciate the concept of exponential math & orders of magnitude.

I'll leave the details of why he's wrong for our community to respond.

<Slinks off to view the dissection from afar>

[Valdemar]

Thanks. I'm about to post a rather quick rebuttal now based on what I currently know and general Googling of things like Nazi Germany, which I always knew had energy problems anyway, nevermind how it's not analogous to contemporary Earth.

[MonteQuest]

A couple of quotes from your link:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak oil is when production stops rising, starts slowly decreasing, and prices start rising up and up until alternative fuels enter the market.

[Valdemar]

I have posted such a similar topic in several other forums I frequent on other sites, and I'm somewhat alarmed by the trend with responses. It's always "bio-fuels are the way to go" or "hydrogen is going to save us" or "the free market will adapt as prices rise, thus funding alternative technologies". All of these arguments I believe up until fairly recently, only they were blown open by most of what I have read by the experts in this field of study and the few documentaries I have watched.

I can only assume this telling sign of the lack of scientific and economic understanding in the masses is why such an issue is not reported often by the mass media.

Anyway, I posted a response that I assume answers most points, though Sikon is known for being quite good at writing large, scientifically valid posts. Just, he doesn't seem to have really thought this through compared to other matters we've agreed with in debate.

[MonteQuest]

Biofools?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xpecting some other energy resource to provide energy on the same scale and level of concentration as petroleum, just because we happen to want one, is a little like responding to one huge lottery win by assuming that when that money starts running out, another equally large win can be had for the cost of a few more tickets. This is close enough to today’s consumer psychology that it’s easy to imagine somebody in this position pouring all the money he has left into lottery tickets, and throwing away his chances of avoiding bankruptcy because the only solution he can imagine is winning the lottery again. And this, again, is exactly the mentality of current attempts to fuel industrial society by pouring our food supply into our gas tanks.

[Valdemar]

I have to ask, but assuming PO is occurring now and that, as the Hirsch report states, we're beyond making the infrastructure for alternatives to off-set such a catastrophe; will civilisation ever again rival the oil age?

I mean, centuries from now, will it be likely that we can regain our former gluttonous glory? I only ask because one person I know shrugged off this crisis by simply appealing to the fact that humans will adapt and learn to live more frugally a century or two from now. As if not going extinct means this is an okay situation (despite the billions that could starve to death from this, it sounds like someone hooked on social Darwinism).

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Valdemar', '.')..
I mean, centuries from now, will it be likely that we can regain our former gluttonous glory?
...

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Valdemar', 'I') have to ask, but assuming PO is occurring now and that, as the Hirsch report states, we're beyond making the infrastructure for alternatives to off-set such a catastrophe; will civilisation ever again rival the oil age?...I mean, centuries from now, will it be likely that we can regain our former gluttonous glory?

[Polemic]

Reply back with something like:


There's your bloody biofuels mate!

[Valdemar]

Okay, I now have a guy going on about the Fischer-Tropsch process and how China can build so many coal fired powerplants, so why can't anyone else?

I've mentioned scalability, along with obvious example like Nazi Germany, but he sees it as being able to allow transition during the crisis, despite my understanding that PO means pretty much no way you can get the money nor energy nor time to implement such infrastructure.

It's in the thread linked already, so have a gander if curious. I'm unsure how else to reply other than repeating my previous points on lack of interest, Peak Coal and scalability.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Valdemar', ' ')I'm unsure how else to reply other than repeating my previous points on lack of interest, Peak Coal and scalability.

[Valdemar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Send them over here to read.

[Atlantean_Relic]

Hi Valdemar, you really need your snazy Umbrella corp logo.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Valdemar', ' ')Just pointing out how his points are erroneous if at all woul suffice, then I don't have as much research myself to slog through and take longer to reply.

[Valdemar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Atlantean_Relic', 'H')i Valdemar, you really need your snazy Umbrella corp logo.

[128shot]

http://peakoil.com/fortopic7291.html+gorge

http://peakoil.com/fortopic21150.html

http://peakoil.com/fortopic21694.html

Read these threads, and all the back information in them, then go kick some ass


Now, on a side note, Monte, you seem to be an author of quite a lot of threads. I can't tell if you want to be a PO martyr or a just simply an activist