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Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby MD » Mon 16 Mar 2015, 18:32:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '
')
The World has always been a cruel place - that is why we evolved to a species capable of living in space, with technological help.


We are an egg, or a flower. I'm not sure which.

I am hoping it's both.

And there is evidence to support my desire.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 16 Mar 2015, 18:48:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '-')snip-

Question: What was wrong with the spaceship we already have? If we 're going to use it up and abandon it, what makes you think we wouldn't do the same wherever we end up? So far, it seems our assholiness is baked in. Up to now, moving to new locations hasn't changed our behavior for the better much. Maybe it was always meant to be that way; gain wisdom as a species, or perish.


The problem with Spaceship Earth is the 7 Billion passengers that are trashing the place in record short time, faster than even the 1300-year period after the Chicxulub impact in the Yucatán Peninsula. Humans are the really deadly extinction event for this planet - and are neatly ham-stringing "Mother Earth's" (I hate that term) every attempt to exterminate us. The Plagues, the Spanish Flu, Ebola, etc. are mere blips. Potentially Peak Oil is not a blip - I think my Grandkids and great grandkids will know, while we only can guess.
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby Paulo1 » Mon 16 Mar 2015, 19:57:57

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So aggresive...your stance. It takes away from any point you might have made.

re: whiny professors. I forgot to mention said professor, who is a good friend of mine by the way, was a Marine drill sargeant who attended UT on the GI bill...after Korea by the way. Whiny? Not so much. Tough son of a bitch? You bet. :oops:
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Mon 16 Mar 2015, 22:52:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'H')ello Paulo. When I read the above OpEd, I was (speaking as an Engineer) struck by the author's final argument about climate change sensitivity. In an amplifier circuit, one can apply positive or negative feedback as you choose. Negative feedback tends to decrease the gain of the circuit, reduce distortion, and in general make the output/input signals more alike and more stable. Positive feedback increases gain in a non-linear fashion, increases distortion, and tends to make the circuit susceptible to wild oscillations that are damped out only by some other limiting factor such as the capacity of the amplifier power supply.

Most feedbacks in Nature are negative in sign, they act to restore organisms and ecologies to a stable state. The Biological term for this is Homeostasis. Much controversy has resulted from the "feedback mechanisms" that are inserted into the climate models, which are the reasons that such models all will show dramatic temperature swings (Al Gore dubbed this the "hockey stick").

I believe that the authors of these models have made basic math errors by assuming all feedbacks are positive. I would argue that like almost all feedback loops in Nature, that climate feedbacks are Homeostatic, and the men doing the modeling are in error. If you make such alterations in sign to the climate models, the predicted temperatures are more accurate in the sense that they are closer to the observed temperatures.
In what way is the climate system analogous to an amplifier circuit or a biological system? A better analogy might be your pot of beans.
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby Peak_Yeast » Mon 16 Mar 2015, 23:04:53

The nature and structure of humanity will prevent us from choosing the correct people to populate space. We know that the worst socio and psychopaths concentrate in the top tier of wealthy people and far from all psychos are as well-meaning to the earth and humanity as Hugo Drax. ;-)

The quote from the bible from KJ is the very human reason why we destroyed earth in the first place - so is this really divine advice?

It would have been much easier if we had had the intelligence to maintain our current spaceship instead of building tiny, fragile, unsustainable :P spaceships to try to escape our own stupidity in.

Besides what makes anyone think we will behave much better on a ridiculously lousy spaceship compared to the one we have now? Its also going to be long term endeavor.
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 17 Mar 2015, 01:03:37

Thing is we would still not escape our own stupidity. There is no logical reason to believe humans can stay sane for an extended period in anything like such an utterly artificial environment, even if the tech miracles required to make such endeavour possible all came to being. As I consistently argue to KJ, the entire basis of the premise are utterly corrupt & absolutely unethical. We are a planetary virus, a kudzu ape, until such time as can be evidenced otherwise. Get spaceship Earth sorted out then see how many volunteers put up to spin around in a tin can forever or equally absurd, colonise Mars & the like. As others have mentioned there is a grossly immature negligence at play in these fantasies & they deserve to be called out.
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 17 Mar 2015, 05:01:31

Now all of you folks need to shut the door to the box that your head is in, turn the key in the lock, and then remove and swallow it. Hopefully you don't have any windows in the box, because then a new idea might sneak in when you are least expecting it.
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby MD » Tue 17 Mar 2015, 05:10:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'N')ow all of you folks need to shut the door to the box that your head is in, turn the key in the lock, and then remove and swallow it. Hopefully you don't have any windows in the box, because then a new idea might sneak in when you are least expecting it.


Why do people tend to get stuck in their own conclusions? I find myself doing it all the time, but fortunately, so far, I've had the capacity to slap myself when necessary. One of my greatest fears is to get stuck forever, like most of the other old people I know. :badgrin:
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 17 Mar 2015, 07:04:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '
')We can argue whatever about that difference and what inspired it. My point is that we transcend other species and our fate is (I deeply believe) in our own hands.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', ' ')Up to now, moving to new locations hasn't changed our behavior for the better much. Maybe it was always meant to be that way; gain wisdom as a species, or perish.


Just to summarize to put into perspective.

Our unique intelligence as a species , with all its transcending qualities, coexisted in harmony with our planet for most of our species history. Every thing unique about us has been there all along, during the 98% of our species time living in harmony with our planet and the 2% since we embarked on building civilizations and agriculture say around 10000 years ago. We always had our brains and sentience and everything that made us a "transcendent species" since we became Homo sapiens.

When we left our tribal past we entered into new territory where we created our own eco systems in building cities, designed our living arrangements, controlled our food supply and mastered exploiting resources.

For the first few thousand years, up until just say 500 years ago, this novel new direction of civilization stayed well with the planets carrying capacity. We were still under a billion people, still no fossil fuel use, vulnerable to plagues. We had art, science, religions, philosophers, explorers, mathematics that all emerged even though we still were vulnerable to our predators of disease and famine.

What happened just a mere couple of hundred years ago? Science, the microscope, electricity, sanitation, fossil fuel extraction, industrial technology, democracy, capitalism, computer technology, the enabling of a vast middle class, all of this just happened in the blink of an eye.

Never before in our species history did we gain such mastery in such a short period of time. All of our intelligence and ingenuity up until a couple hundred years ago was honed against forces that held us in check. And then we temporarily conquered these forces.

We have to remember that it has only been a couple of generations that have assumed an entitled life free of constraints with a pursuit of happiness as a goal. We are not talking about a small elite supported by serfs and slaves like in ancient Egypt. We are talking about 7 billion plus with a voracious appetite for resources assuming a very very high degree of self entitlement in moving about our planet.

This is unprecedented in our species history. It is only a couple of generations old and yet we all see this as normal. This is exactly what defines us as Kudzu Ape.

It is anything but normal.

What happens now moving forward?

Limits and constraints get reintroduced due to human overshoot.

And Ghung's comment above becomes the big question regarding our fate. We didn't have much wisdom or knowledge in dealing with a lack of constraints while exponentially growing like Kudzu on the planet during the last 100 years. With the reintroduction of constraints once again, due to human overshoot, we will have the hindsight to guide us which we did not have while ascending......that gives us a great opportunity to incorporate wisdom in how we will manage our numbers and resources going forward. There is a very real possibility however that we will be very unexceptional in this regard and perish due to hubris and ignorance. But we might actually get through this and emerge culturally better adapted to live under self regulated sustainable principals. Remember, this is all new for us.

On a collective global scale modern industrial civilization right now is going through the growing pains of an adolescent.

Today we are Kudzu Ape. Tomorrow we will be something else.

It's 6am, the howler monkeys are calling outside, the night is a deep shade of purple, dawn is upon us. Time to grind the coffee and start another day.
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 17 Mar 2015, 07:21:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '
')Why do people tend to get stuck in their own conclusions? I find myself doing it all the time, but fortunately, so far, I've had the capacity to slap myself when necessary. One of my greatest fears is to get stuck forever, like most of the other old people I know. :badgrin:


Old age and obsolescence is the fate that awaits us all. The art of living is to make sure the grooves and conclusions that will stick in the end will be ones of grace peppered with some bittersweet regrets to keep you humble as you fade into oblivion.

And if your walking down the street sometime, and you spot some hollow ancient eyes, just don't walk by and stare, as if there wasn't anyone there, say hello in there......... John Prine.
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby GHung » Tue 17 Mar 2015, 08:39:58

"Why do people tend to get stuck in their own conclusions?"

Many of us don't. We re-examine the evidence that led us to those conclusions, and incorporate new evidence into that process. So far, the evidence has re-inforced my conclusions that humans are on a net destructive path regarding their environment and the viability of their own collective future. Have they made some progress? Yes, but not any progress that's proportional in terms of countering their destructive behavior. Not even close.
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby Pops » Tue 17 Mar 2015, 09:28:04

There is just so much wrong with the OP it is hard to know where to start, but that is the entire point of the Wall of B.S. argument tactic, is it not?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')It is an ironic truth that no nonrenewable resource has ever run dry, while renewable resources—whales, cod, forests, passenger pigeons—have frequently done so.


I just gotta stand in awe. LOL

Just goes to show that any time you see a statement that starts with a variation of "the fact is..." you can be fairly certain it isn't. There are an estimated 12 Million abandoned oil and gas wells in the US, with about half a million still producing. I guess the drillers responsible for those holes must have simply grown tired of spending all that money.
http://www.propublica.org/article/deter ... oss-the-co

Too funny, but not worth wasting time debating any more than debating a preacher in church. You can't change a true believer's mind with mere facts.
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 17 Mar 2015, 09:35:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '[')i]"Why do people tend to get stuck in their own conclusions?"

Many of us don't. We re-examine the evidence that led us to those conclusions, and incorporate new evidence into that process. So far, the evidence has re-inforced my conclusions that humans are on a net destructive path regarding their environment and the viability of their own collective future. Have they made some progress? Yes, but not any progress that's proportional in terms of countering their destructive behavior. Not even close.


Agreed. When you consider how novel our situation is of living without constraints, just a mere couple of generations, it shouldn't be surprising that we are failing as miserably as we are. One would think that it would take hundreds of generations to instill a set of cultural self regulating mechanisms around consumption. We have only been in this situation for a couple of generations. Come on, let's give Kudzu Ape the benefit of the doubt here! As I mentioned above the returning of constraints back into our collective lives, as a result of the consequences of overshoot, will create another novel situation for these past couple of generations that have been living without them. On top of that we will have the hindsight of our hubris and excesses. This creates the basis for change and transition. Nothing else will. That is the foundation of my thesis that consequences acting as constraints is the only catalytic force remaining to move our culture forward toward a direction of self regulation. That will make us a remarkable species if we succeed. The first species to use culture as a self regulating force. If we perish we will be unexceptional and unremarkable, nothing more than yeast with a brain in the petri dish. This question of our eventual fate is not known, neither is the time line due to unpredictable black swan events. Most likely, in my estimation, this adolescent phase of industrial civilization we are going through will last at least a century if not longer. Decades at least. It will play out beyond all of our lifetimes, even the younger among us like Desu. That is as far as my predictions go.

We have to remember how novel our current situation is and how novel also the consequences that are coming. A very punctuated moment in the history of our species.... and those of us alive have the good fortune to witness this, in all its enlightened and primitive manifestations.
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby kanon » Tue 17 Mar 2015, 10:29:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')here is just so much wrong with the OP it is hard to know where to start, but that is the entire point of the Wall of B.S. argument tactic, is it not?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')It is an ironic truth that no nonrenewable resource has ever run dry, while renewable resources—whales, cod, forests, passenger pigeons—have frequently done so.


I just gotta stand in awe. LOL

Just goes to show that any time you see a statement that starts with a variation of "the fact is..." you can be fairly certain it isn't. There are an estimated 12 Million abandoned oil and gas wells in the US, with about half a million still producing. . . Too funny, but not worth wasting time debating any more than debating a preacher in church. You can't change a true believer's mind with mere facts.


Yes, the "run dry" quotient seems to be 24:1. The selection could be interpreted as "nature can be exterminated, but fossil fuels are invincible." The conclusion really gives it away IMHO.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he one thing that will not work is the one thing that the environmental movement insists upon: subsidizing wealthy crony capitalists to build low-density, low-output, capital-intensive, land-hungry renewable energy schemes, while telling the poor to give up the dream of getting richer through fossil fuels.

Notice the devices, e.g. "crony capitalists" mixed with "renewable energy schemes" to invert the energy debate. The editorial really seeks to maintain the huge present subsidies and social arrangements for the benefit of fossil fuel crony capitalists. It is nothing more than special interest advertizing, full of fallacies, and a further example of the relentless competition to control resources and people.

I am struck by how completely the status quo agenda colors all available information.
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 17 Mar 2015, 12:42:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', 'I')n what way is the climate system analogous to an amplifier circuit or a biological system? A better analogy might be your pot of beans.


I was not making an analogy. I was explaining how positive and negative feedbacks work in feedback loops. Then I went on and made the point that virtually all of the feedback loops in Nature are negative (Homeostatic) and act to restore the stability. Then I talked about mathematical climate models, every single one of which can be proved to be defective, and then observed that if you changed the sign of the feedback and made it Homeostatic (i.e. negative) that the accuracy of the model in predicting temperatures was improved.

The whole discussion simply reiterated something Ridley said in his OpEd piece, which I am certain few of you bothered to read through, since your opinions on Peak Oil, AGW, and Doom were -ah- "fossilized" sometime in your youth, and you now operate in a mode where you consciously exclude data and evidence that contradicts your pre-existing opinion.

Which behavior is pretty much the polar opposite of the behavior needed to conduct Scientific investigations. But no matter how many times I make this point, it also falls upon deaf ears.

Sometimes I feel like Don Quixote, who has ridden over the top of a hill and seen this:

Image

...because people see the world through their opinions, which are anything but clear. When you clear those obstructions to truth and accuracy away, you then live in a constant state of total amazement.
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby Pops » Tue 17 Mar 2015, 12:52:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'T')he whole discussion simply reiterated something Ridley said in his OpEd piece, which I am certain few of you bothered to read through, since your opinions on Peak Oil, AGW, and Doom were -ah- "fossilized" sometime in your youth, and you now operate in a mode where you consciously exclude data and evidence that contradicts your pre-existing opinion.

LOL, simply because you agree with the opinion does not make it a science fact.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Op-ed
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
An op-ed (originally short for "opposite the editorial page", latterly "opinion editorial") is a piece typically published by newspapers, magazines, and the like which expresses the opinions of a named author usually not affiliated with the publication's editorial board.
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 17 Mar 2015, 12:55:51

Exactly, an Opinion Editorial. Exactly how many of you read it through and considered the arguments inside? Show of hands, please.
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 17 Mar 2015, 17:11:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'I') was not making an analogy. I was explaining how positive and negative feedbacks work in feedback loops. Then I went on and made the point that virtually all of the feedback loops in Nature are negative (Homeostatic) and act to restore the stability.
Wikipedia:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hroughout history, ecological succession was seen as having a stable end-stage called the climax (see Frederic Clements), sometimes referred to as the 'potential biodiversity' of a site, shaped primarily by the local climate. This idea has been largely abandoned by modern ecologists in favor of nonequilibrium ideas of how ecosystems function, as most natural ecosystems experience disturbance at a rate that makes a "climax" community unattainable.
Only on small, isolated habitats known as ecological islands can the phenomenon be observed.
The article lacks sources. What are your sources for this claim?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'T')hen I talked about mathematical climate models, every single one of which can be proved to be defective
Sources?
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 17 Mar 2015, 21:54:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')OK, fine. Assuming you are rational, what is your excuse for siding with the "we are doomed real soon now" camp which according to my yardstick, at the end of the day (or year) is always wrong?


How soon are you saying I believe doom is?

There are some here who think a methane release will do us off in less than 10 years. I don't subscribe to that sort of imminent fast-crash catastrophe scenario. On the other hand, I think a malthusian die-off event is likely before the end of the century, whether it's brought on by climate catastrophe or energy scarcity (probably a combination of both).

Now, what does that mean in a short to medium time horizon which is what we, as individuals, need to know in order to plan out our all-too-brief existence? Not that much, really. So we blend back into society doing as the blue-pillers do, because heading for the hills on the leading edge of the curve causes more hassle than it's worth.
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Re: Stirring the pot so it doesn't boil over

Unread postby kanon » Tue 17 Mar 2015, 23:35:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'E')xactly, an Opinion Editorial. Exactly how many of you read it through and considered the arguments inside? Show of hands, please.

Pops got it right -- a Wall of BS. The one truthful statement I found is: "The more energy you have, the more intricate, powerful and complex you can make a system."

The summary, for those who did not read it, is: fossil fuels = good; competing energy systems = bad. When the article claims fossil fuels will lift the world's poor out of poverty, I couldn't help thinking about KJ's repetition of the overshoot population problem. So why is the delusional messianic message so appealing? Because fossil fuel emissions, petroleum chemicals, fracking fluids, etc. are actually good for the environment -- if you believe. If all the poor will just burn more fossil fuels, they will so help the environment that their increased consumption will obviate the overshoot situation (or something like that).
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