[marek]

I admit it doesn't address the issue of Peak Oil, but at least Stiglitz (like Krugman) acknowledges the fiscal problems and the obvious effect of oil prices on the economy. The Guardian

[Woodchuck]

I don't know if it will be in 05 or a few years after, but I think Asia is the next hellhole. Almost no one currently believes this. This does not include the current earthquakes. Otherwise I agree with Stiglitz.

Let me explain. These are oddball data points.

About every 100 years, there is major financial upheaval which leads to a significant financial reorganization. There is also a global shift in the power base from East To West.

approx 1700. Bank of England is formed. Dutch power is dominant.

approx 1800. USA is formed. Hamiltonian vrs Jeffersonian debates. Central Bank vrs Jacksonian debates. British power is dominant.

approx 1900. Bank crisis of 1907 leads to Federal Reserve of 1913. USA becomes a dominant power.

approx 2000. Competeing ideologies in Asia force the need for a pan Asian alliance. North/South Korea. China/Taiwan. Japan with it's western alliances. At this time, Asia becomes the dominant power.



This is a corolary data point. This is the skyscraper thesis.

Skyscrapers are built in times of optimism. They are often built in boom periods. A few years after they are built, the underlying assumptions are often proved faulty. Hence, skyscraper building can be used as a leading indicator of future weakness or upheaval.

Right now, all the skyscraper building is in Asia/Malaysia. On 01/01/05, the people of Taipei, Taiwan opened the world's tallest building.

I smell trouble in Asia, big trouble.