by PrairieMule » Fri 21 Nov 2008, 16:55:42
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I think for Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Nigeria, Venezuela, etc. as long as there is someone who needs their oil, and they are desperate to sell it to stay alive, feed their people, spackle gold nuggets on their palaces, etc., they will sell it to whomever can give them whatever "dollar" has value at that time. Or, if they can afford "not" to sell it and hold onto it until things somehow get "better" again, they will.
Funny you mentioned Nigeria. It's a completley different animal than Saudi Arabia, Mexico, or Venezuela.
They are at half production capacity which is keeping about 1 to 1.25 million barrels a day of light sweet off the market. Why would they keep that much light sweet off the market when oil topped $140 a barrel? Nobody in Nigeria got ahead last year, not the corrupt officials, the generals, the oil companies or any Nigerians in general while everyone else cashed in. While the corruption and greed is rampant down there that's not why production is down.
It's centuries of tribal chaos and instability.
It's MEND rebels and villagers cracking pipelines then kidnapping oil workers when they go out and fix them. It's natives firing RPG's at each other because one tribe went fishing in another tribes waters. I know this first hand because my dad was a engineer who got shook down daily in Port Harcourt with a automatic rifle poked in his ribs for 10 years. It's 100 million people crammed into a country the smaller than Texas.
It's a nation of hunter gathers trying to interact with the 21st century.
If you give a man a fish you will have kept him from hunger for a day. If you teach a man to fish he will sit in a boat and drink beer all day.