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So PO's finally in the mainstream news - what now?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: So PO's finally in the mainstream news - what now?

Unread postby rdberg1957 » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 02:47:06

Let's look at the social psychology of peak oil. One theory of social psychology, cognitive dissonance, has been around for fifty years. When someone holds two beliefs that are in opposition to each other, he or she is motivated to relieve the dissonance that is caused by the conflict between the beliefs. For example, one may hold the belief of limitless growth which is supported all throughout the culture. Presenting information about peak oil creates dissonance which the person will naturally want to resolve. Because most folks in the USA have predicated their lives upon the former assumption of limitless growth, they are highly invested in that belief and will prefer to resolve the dissonance between conflicting beliefs by maintaining the belief in limitless growth, generally blocking out information which contradicts that belief.

Even among very bright folks who are environmentally aware, very few will entertain the idea that we are in deep trouble, preferring to believe that "someone will invent something, electric cars" to save us. We ain't gonna convince anybody who doesn't want to know. Only empirical evidence over time will break through this kind of denial.
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Re: So PO's finally in the mainstream news - what now?

Unread postby pup55 » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 04:20:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')e sits around all day working on these numbers


jeesh.

Actually I type fast, and also, am a spreadsheet whiz so it does not take me too long. Also I save time by not getting into flame wars.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')pending more time fixing his bike lately


True. I have several bikes, but before you are impressed, be advised that they are garage sale specials. None are particularly stellar, but they have already proven that they are durable. And as the old song says, they will get me where I want to go.
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Re: So PO's finally in the mainstream news - what now?

Unread postby JPL » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 06:20:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')PL wrote:

We still have a choice, damn-it, but time is now getting VERY short...

Grifter said:

JP
Sorry to be rude but...what f*cking choice?

too many peopleb


Well, he didn’t say it was a good choice, just a choice and that is better than nothing. Basically it boils down to: we can sit around and do nothing while civilization and any vestiges of it, go down the toilet, or we can alter our perception of what life is suppose to be like, and rebuild toward a more sustainable culture. Can we live completely without oil, most likely not, but we can live on one hell of a lot less, and probably live a half way decent life. The 42” HDTV has to go, the 6000 lb SUV, soccer mom has to end her chauffeuring career and the McMansion is a thing of the past; along with a whole lot of other stuff. But the alternative looks really, really nasty, unless you are into long pig.


Yes! There are low-energy lifestyles out there - they just take time to set up. And we are running out of time - fast.

No, building a sustainable future is not going to be a whole lot of laughs, but at least it is a future. Anyone got an alternative stratagy, please step forward.

I'm waiting....

Still waiting...

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Re: So PO's finally in the mainstream news - what now?

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 10:54:39

rdberg1957 said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ven among very bright folks who are environmentally aware, very few will entertain the idea that we are in deep trouble, preferring to believe that "someone will invent something, electric cars" to save us.


People can adhere to a held paradigm even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Part of this bizarre behavior appears to originate in how we deal will information, more specifically how we attain it. Personal experience seems to be given much more weight than information that is acquired vicariously, or through logical deduction. Any mother can attest to this; you tell little Johnny not to touch the stove, and the first thing you know, the kid sticks his finger on it. Learning by experience always significantly out weights what we have learned in other ways.

Even bright folks live a day to day existence, to them it has not changed significantly since their childhood. The TV has gotten bigger, the roads more congested and the bills show up every month. Their held paradigms are not threatened by their own personal experience, so they maintain them. Tomorrow will undoubtedly be a bigger TV and more traffic jams.

This thinking process originated in our very primitive native environment, and it evolved because it worked. Unfortunately, we have changed the environment in which we evolved, and now we are stuck with thinking processes that don’t work quite right. Believe it or not, this may be the biggest dilemma now facing the human race.
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Re: So PO's finally in the mainstream news - what now?

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 12:23:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', 'Y')es! There are low-energy lifestyles out there - they just take time to set up. And we are running out of time - fast.



That's the tough thing. Most people won't change until forced to change, and then they will suffer greatly. You can't learn to grow food effectively while you're starving, or, it is very very difficult (Cubans lost an average of 25 pounds per person while they transitioned to low-energy living). Certainly in my own life as I try to set up something low-energy, it is taking a long time, and I'm nowhere close to being able to support myself from the production of my land.


People will cling to the life they are used to, many for lack of a different model. Certainly they won't get any help from TPTB, who are all heavily invested in the status quo.
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Re: So PO's finally in the mainstream news - what now?

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 13:50:35

Ludi said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '(')Cubans lost an average of 25 pounds per person while they transitioned to low-energy living)


That would still leave the vast majority of Americans overweight! Land of the brave, free and fat asses.
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Re: So PO's finally in the mainstream news - what now?

Unread postby oiless » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 14:46:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', '
')
Noooooooo!!! That was not the case in the 70's & I know 'cos I was there. What was in the MSM at the time was the fact that we had 30 years of oil left - but it was going to run out WITHIN OUR LIFETIMES.

When I was doing undergraduate Geology in the early 80's my college lecturers told us we had 20 years of Oil.


JP


This brought something to mind.
When I was in grade school in the 1970's, here in Canada, in social studies, we were taught about Canada's oil reserves.
They used 1976 reserve and domestic consumption figures as I recall, and they did not talk about tar sands, just conventional oil.
We were taught that assuming the 1976 DOMESTIC consumption, (no exports, no growth) and the 1976 reserves, Canada had enough oil to supply domestic consumption for 1100 years.
We grew a lot and sold a lot apparently.
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Re: So PO's finally in the mainstream news - what now?

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 17:35:39

A lot of people aren't able to spot patterns, early on. Some can't spot them, even when they start to establish, as they can't stand back far enough to get a big picture. They're the bean counters, the measurers. Their job isn't to extract meaning and that's just how they're wired.

The conformists and minor players who golf with upholders of the status quo, are impediments to the free flow of ideas. They hunt for Weapons of Mass Discussion and try to neutralize them every chance they get.

These types are usually wannabes who can't see the forest for the tees--an entirely different kind of myopia, symptomatic of a primary character deficit.

Add that to the hope that the media is there to point the way, to inform--that there is some kind of unwritten social contract there, and you have a society where a majority have almost preselected themselves for some kind of culling process.

I just hope it's limited to a mild financial culling; the kind where their wallets take a hit, but they remain standing.
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Re: So PO's finally in the mainstream news - what now?

Unread postby sameu » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 17:42:15

i know at least one big autmobile constructor where they're aware of peakoil and where it's a current topic
don't know what their strategies are, but at least they're aware
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Re: So PO's finally in the mainstream news - what now?

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 01:27:18

Radio Havana Cuba has been reporting the PO response to the BP pie-in-the-sky.

6.18 MHz. in North America.

(If you email them they will send you a Che pocket calendar).
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Re: So PO's finally in the mainstream news - what now?

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 01:50:26

So the question on the table is "what now?" An earlier poster mentioned that the cost of preparation could be ready to skyrocket as individuals discover po and begin to do what ever they can to get ready. this has been my fear for sometime and if the predicted shortages occur I'm afraid it could prove true. There are a lot of people in the world able to out-bid me for the last few things I feel that I need, what now? I'm going to have to seriously look at my situation, distinguish between needs and wants and then go get those last few pricey items even if it means a little more debt. I think my job will last long enough to ride the wave (I just received a letter telling me I would not be considered for a more secure job closer to home).

Soon it will be time to start making do.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: So PO's finally in the mainstream news - what now?

Unread postby Starvid » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 05:31:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', 'i') know at least one big autmobile constructor where they're aware of peakoil and where it's a current topic
don't know what their strategies are, but at least they're aware

Volvo, which is owned by Ford, is at least aware. They have documents about peak oil on their web site.

Image
This is from a document on their web page.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic11386-0-asc-0.html
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: So PO's finally in the mainstream news - what now?

Unread postby threadbear » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 13:48:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', 'i') know at least one big autmobile constructor where they're aware of peakoil and where it's a current topic
don't know what their strategies are, but at least they're aware


The strategy of the auto companies probably involves waiting till the last moment to scream bloody murder about the severity of the problem, and then enlist the govt.'s support in a bail out process and restructuring. The "too big to fail" approach, coupled with the "caught unawares" about oil depletion, providing justification to kill the taxpayer in order to "save him".

The further merger of state and large coporations (or should I say corporation, as if things keep going like they are, perhaps only one corporation is the goal :lol:) is going to ramp up the govt. subsidies process to the point where competition is no longer possible.

Anti-competition on steroids, if you will. The govt has created a real moral hazard by accomodating corporations in this way, in the past. Either you're a socialist big Brother command economy, or a true free market. Pick one, USA, and quite the B.S.
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Re: So PO's finally in the mainstream news - what now?

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 15:53:40

threadbear said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he further merger of state and large coporations (or should I say corporation, as if things keep going like they are, perhaps only one corporation is the goal Laughing) is going to ramp up the govt. subsidies process to the point where competition is no longer possible.


This is already the situation with financial services and the media. They are completely owned by just a handful of people; this is done through corporate pyramiding and interlocking directories to give the impression of a competitive market place.

These leviathans will be, but short lived; their shear size makes them incredibility inefficient. In the Post Peak world inefficiency will be the mark of the beast, a guaranteed damnation that no special interest, or influence pedaling will be able to preclude. I often wonder how aware they really are of their own coming demise.
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Re: So PO's finally in the mainstream news - what now?

Unread postby Madpaddy » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 18:49:10

The irony.

Volvo and Ford are among the most inefficient cars in Europe.

We have a catch 22 here. The car companies don't want to invest in a more efficient diesel or petrol engine because like all cornucopians, they believe the next big breakthrough with hybrid or hydrogen powered engines is just around the corner and they don't want to have spent all this R&D money for nothing.

This is precisely why almost all industry will be caught swimming naked when the tide goes out.
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