[BrianC]

Global Shift To Clean Energy Means Fossil Fuel Demand Will Peak Soon, IEA says (npr.org) 108
Posted by msmash on Tuesday October 24, 2023 @09:40AM from the encouraging-feedback dept.
Demand for climate-warming fuels like coal, oil and natural gas will likely peak before 2030, evidence of the accelerating global shift to energy that doesn't emit greenhouse gasses, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s World Energy Outlook. From a report:
"The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it's unstoppable. It's not a question of 'if', it's just a matter of 'how soon' -- and the sooner the better for all of us," said Fatih Birol, IEA executive director, in a statement. The agency represents countries that make up more than 80% of global energy consumption. The annual IEA report estimates that in 2030 there will be 10 times as many electric vehicles on the road worldwide and 50% of the cars sold in the United States will be electric. The agency says solar panels installed across the globe will generate more electricity at the end of the decade than the U.S. power system produces now. And the report projects that renewable energy will supply 50% of the world's electricity needs, up from about 30% now.

But the report warns the pace of the transition will have to quicken considerably in order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, and avoid some of the worst case scenarios in a changing climate. The IEA's outlook lays out a strategy for meeting that goal that includes tripling renewable energy, doubling energy efficiency measures and slashing methane emissions from fossil fuel operations by 75% by 2030. Methane has more than 25 times the climate-warming potential of carbon dioxide, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Climate and anti-fossil fuel groups say the IEA's methane strategy should be even more aggressive.

https://www.npr.org/2023/10/24/12079767 ... n-iea-says

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BrianC', 'G')lobal Shift To Clean Energy Means Fossil Fuel Demand Will Peak Soon, IEA says

[Pops]

In a related note the first small modular nuke in the US has been canceled— because renewables.

Ironic really since Hubbert's "peak" paper "“Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels" was about the need to switch to nukes because oil, coal etc would inevitably poop out.

Diffuse, regional solar/wind power production needs transmission and storage but that will come as long as we make the investment in time. The problem is, and always has been, oil will be needed to make the transition, we're a long way from farming with tiny robots or whatever solution we come up with.

[yellowcanoe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '[')url=https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/11/first-planned-small-nuclear-reactor-plant-in-the-us-has-been-canceled/]In a related note[/url] the first small modular nuke in the US has been canceled— because renewables.

Ironic really since Hubbert's "peak" paper "“Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels" was about the need to switch to nukes because oil, coal etc would inevitably poop out.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yellowcanoe', '
') After my wife and I purchased an off-grid cabin earlier this year I am seeing that first hand.

[Pops]

I've long thought of renewables as personal mitigation for the middle term if a person can bite the bullet and spend the money. I'm pleasantly surprised at how dramatically the price and availability of components has fallen.

Long term I don't believe there is a painless mitigation that preserves a status quo rooted in fossils energy too cheap to meter. I mean I still have a 7,000 lb vehicle to haul the occasional 2x4 so obviously diesel at $5/gallon isn't too expensive. Modern life, such as it is, requires near unlimited cheap, concentrated energy— that was a one-time endowment.


I have type I diabetes and am some kind of prepper so I have over the years built up a stock of many thousands of dollars worth of insulin. Insulin is perishable so must be kept cool and I've experimented with many ways to keep it acceptably so. Over the last few years I've finally put together a backup system consisting of 30kWh of LiFePo storage, 4kW of panels and a 6kW inverter/charger. It is a non-rated system, no UL label, so it would fail inspection in a city. OTOH it cost a relatively small $15k — probably about the same as half my insulin supply.

I outfitted our travel trailer to share some components like batteries and panels so we can boondock / dry camp and also make it a part of the house system. I have a dozen 250w panels stored in the outbuilding.

That the physical components will eventually loose efficiency is not the main problem. Neither that the power provided is not limitless, again, renewables are a poor substitute for relatively free fossil fuels. The problem is that just like nukes, all the cost is up front. I said it here almost 20 years ago, how much time do we have to prepare before preparing is too costly?

The sweet spot of falling price and virtually free credit for most people is probably already past. I've read several stories of canceled battery factories and of course China's implosion will cancel lots of cheap panel and equipment plans.

Well great, I brought out the doom after all.

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')he problem is that just like nukes, all the cost is up front

[Pops]

The average person can't afford the average home and new home starts are down 20% from last year. Home builders aren't building because money is tight and costs high. Home ownership is high by historical standards because of a decade of free money but half of owners say they couldn't afford to buy their house today. Costs are 50% higher than pre-pandemic and with high rates they can't afford to lose their 3% loan to move across town.

We've gotten used to cheap money and banks pushing it out the door. But that isn't the norm—just look at the trillions added to the deficit over the last couple decades in particular to see where that "free" money came from.

The pandemic jiggered up the economy and set the stage for corporate price rigging, then the fed's gyrations jiggered the interest rate so that no one can buy or afford to sell. A systemic shortfall of oil would likewise jamb the energy market and make it harder for everyone to get credit even if there were capacity to produce enough PV to go around.

Already clamshell plastic boxes of lettuce are so heavy they embody more energy that their contents. Fracking has been a boon to the petrochemical industry that exports the light to get the heavy. The top line number looks rosy and much has been made of that top number. But lots of that LTO gets consumed as feedstock or exported to make plastic tchotchkes while we still import heavy oil to make fuel.

Oh, and throw in that lots of utilities are petitioning, and succeeding, in lowering or eliminating the feed-in tariffs that underwrite some large proportion of grid-tie installs.

I quit predicting the future but just looking around at the situation I find I've lost some of the optimism I had about the surprise in falling PV costs enabling transition, whether global warming induced or not. Still, for motivated individuals who can afford to, this is a good time.

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')he average person can't afford the average home

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', ' ')I find I've lost some of the optimism I had about the surprise in falling PV costs enabling transition,

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')he average person can't afford the average home and new home starts are down 20% from last year. Home builders aren't building because money is tight and costs high.

[Pops]

I also worked construction in various roles from the 70's to current. I'm fairly confident in saying todays houses are far superior thanks to code requirements and advancements in tech. The 70'-90s saw lots of crap thrown against the wall that didn't stick: CPVC, poly tubing, paper siding and roofing, SIPs, aluminum wiring, particleboard, tighter construction but no ventilation, on and on really. Oh, and lots of poor quality coatings and finishes after the lead and asbestos bans upturned those products.

Back to the topic tho, I don't think we can make much dent in oil demand without big government backing of renewable build-out. Before the GI Bill and government subsidized mortgages in 1944, most banks wouldn't lend to buy a house like today. The loans were short and the downpayment tall - if you could get one. Along came Levittown and cookie-cutter subdivisions and sprawl was born but ownership grew to 65% (and holding because the market is now locked up tight)

Consequently the average living space per person was 500 square feet in 1960 is more like 1,000 today! Credit— or blame, goes to easier borrowing.

At this point there is a lack of standardization in the manufacture of consumer level PV equipment. There are government subsidies and codes but still nothing like the GI bill that produced the FHA/VA loans today. Grid-tie systems go for ridiculous sums if you can believe the DIY forums I sometimes peruse. People report outrageous estimates for installs. Energy tax credits help as do and grid-tie credit but as I said, utilities hate those and will increasingly fight them.

There needs to be a bigger push, unfortunately that won't happen due to the current politics, not to mention that everyone is overextended already.

[Dewol49172]

The International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook suggests that global demand for fossil fuels could peak before 2030 due to the accelerating shift towards clean energy. The report emphasizes the unstoppable worldwide transition and projects significant increases in electric vehicles, solar energy, and renewable energy supplying 50% of global electricity by 2030. However, it highlights the need for an even faster transition to limit global warming, proposing strategies like tripling renewable energy, doubling energy efficiency, and reducing methane emissions by 75% by 2030. Climate groups advocate for even more aggressive measures, given the urgency of addressing climate change.

title 24 california

[Pops]

wow, don't see much spam anymore huh?

[ralfy]

From what I remember, around 70 pct of heavy equipment in mining use diesel, around half of energy in manufacturing involves fossil fuels, and the bulk of shipping involves similar, including bunker oil and marine diesel. And then there are petrochemicals involved in tens of thousands of applications.

Meanwhile, the quality and quantity of "clean" energy remain low due to lack of material resources, as demand for the latter increases per capita because more people worldwide need and want more "stuff".

[theluckycountry]