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Shell announces peak of its oil production

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Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby NovaVeles » Thu 11 Feb 2021, 20:27:22

First time poster, might as well start it with a good one.

https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/news/c ... net-zero/#

Shell have announced that they are now passed peak production and are anticipating a 55% decline in output by the end of the decade. Never expected it to be announced in such a blunt way, and yet, here we are.
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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 11 Feb 2021, 21:56:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NovaVeles', 'F')irst time poster, might as well start it with a good one.

https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/news/c ... net-zero/#

Shell have announced that they are now passed peak production and are anticipating a 55% decline in output by the end of the decade. Never expected it to be announced in such a blunt way, and yet, here we are.


Peak demand is going to clobber industry, no doubt about it. Shell is just accepting the inevitable, as EVs and hydrogen and environmental concerns and regulations make using hydrocarbons the sign of ...DA DEBIL!!!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby Pops » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 10:57:24

Nice Nova.
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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby aadbrd » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 11:04:13

The term may be the same but the meaning has long changed to peak oil demand (as well as regulatory pressure due to climate change). It's been a long time since I've read credible threats to oil supply due to geologic depletion from the MSM.
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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby OutcastPhilosopher » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 11:04:57

Shell had 21.7 Billion in losses in 2020.

Adam......ITS ALL GOOD.

LOL
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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 11:20:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutcastPhilosopher', 'S')hell had 21.7 Billion in losses in 2020.

Adam......ITS ALL GOOD.

LOL


I don't know if Shell employees would be thinking that, but certainly peak demand has quite a few benefits to everyone else. Back in the day peak oil via scarcity had been configured as doomer porn, and peak demand just doesn't have that ability, except for oil company employees anyway. I wonder if schools will ever again crank out petroleum engineers? The academic training of them almost died out back in the late 80's with cheap and plentiful oil after the 1979 global peak oil, and higher prices brought them back in this century, but this could be the end for these engineers and petroleum geologists.
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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 11:22:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aadbrd', 'T')he term may be the same but the meaning has long changed to peak oil demand (as well as regulatory pressure due to climate change). It's been a long time since I've read credible threats to oil supply due to geologic depletion from the MSM.


To heck with the MSM, it has been quite some time since anyone with technical understanding and access to all the information available has been able to say much about it. It has always been easy to chuckle at what the uninformed doomer-philes have thought on the subject, because they didn't think, they were just looking for a cool mechanism to bring about their particular doom fantasy scenario.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby OutcastPhilosopher » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 11:23:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutcastPhilosopher', 'S')hell had 21.7 Billion in losses in 2020.

Adam......ITS ALL GOOD.

LOL


I don't know if Shell employees would be thinking that, but certainly peak demand has quite a few benefits to everyone else. Back in the day peak oil via scarcity had been configured as doomer porn, and peak demand just doesn't have that ability, except for oil company employees anyway. I wonder if schools will ever again crank out petroleum engineers? The academic training of them almost died out back in the late 80's with cheap and plentiful oil after the 1979 global peak oil, and higher prices brought them back in this century, but this could be the end for these engineers and petroleum geologists.


Shell laid off 9000 employees in 2020. How many of them were petrol engineers?

Exxon laid off 14,000 in 2020. Chevron laid off 6,000 in 2020.

Oil is failing along with the ponzi scheme.
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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 12:35:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutcastPhilosopher', '
')Shell laid off 9000 employees in 2020. How many of them were petrol engineers?


A small fraction of that. If you think of the engineers as the designers and managers, they don't need as many of those as they do operation folks, those checking the properties, keeping the equipment and pipelines running, the operational side. The engineers are were the forward looking and technical folks in the company tend to be.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutcastPhilosopher', '
')Exxon laid off 14,000 in 2020. Chevron laid off 6,000 in 2020.
Oil is failing along with the ponzi scheme.


Not sure which ponzi scheme might be a conspiracy nutter's favorite, but the industry was decimated even worse back in the 80's. What ultimately cured that was increasing demand eating away at oversupply, and it still took nearly 15 years to recover. With peak demand probably here, that mechanism can't be used to save the industry like it did last time. Good for the planet, people and environment, not so good for petroleum employees.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 13:13:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutcastPhilosopher', '
')Oil is failing along with the ponzi scheme.


Yup. Its amazing to see SHELL and BP and other western oil firms turn away from oil.

However, the huge National Oil Companies in Saudi, China, and Russia are doubling down on exploring and developing oil, so the oil biz isn't over quite yet.

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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby Pops » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 13:18:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')lobal oil demand is still set to flatline rather than peak in the coming two decades, the International Energy Agency said Oct. 13, despite growing expectations that the pandemic could trigger a rapid shift away from oil to cleaner energy.

"The era of global oil demand growth will come to an end in the next decade," IEA head Fatih Birol said. "But without a large shift in government policies, there is no sign of a rapid decline."
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... y-2040-iea


Soooo, 2% decline in supply here, 2% there
but 0% reduction in demand?

These are shareholder owned entities, their number one priority is share price.
All of a sudden we think they are "just being honest and accepting the inevitable"?
LOL
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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 13:28:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')lobal oil demand is still set to flatline rather than peak in the coming two decades, the International Energy Agency said Oct. 13, despite growing expectations that the pandemic could trigger a rapid shift away from oil to cleaner energy.

"The era of global oil demand growth will come to an end in the next decade," IEA head Fatih Birol said. "But without a large shift in government policies, there is no sign of a rapid decline."
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... y-2040-iea


Soooo, 2% decline in supply here, 2% there
but 0% reduction in demand?


Fatih is famously remembered for declaring peak oil in 2006, from 2010, him waiting to make sure first, being an economist and all. And still getting it wrong. Being an economist and all.

Supply has no near-term requirement to decline, in aggregate, based on price. The killer is first a slackening in demand (mentioned by CSIS during webinars nearly 3 years ago now) and then Covid hit, bringing about huge artificial demand destruction. The problem is that this "artificial" might have been hiding the continuing progression towards ever slackening demand in the first place...arriving at no demand increases. Pile on the drop dead serious nature of some European countries and governments (drop dead serious from my perspective of listening to them at conferences and whatnot) related to climate change, and this could easily be a 6 to 5 and pick'im whether or not we really are...THERE. I first began mentioning a peak demand scenario on this website back in 2015 or so, after some discussion with Amy Jaffe, she seemed to have figured this out earlier than most. Tony Seba was laying out a great case by 2016/2017, and soon thereafter it was mentioned far more often in the not quite MSM press.
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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby Pops » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 16:15:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'S')upply has no near-term requirement to decline

Shell just said their supply will decline 2% per year. I think I'll take their word on this at least.

Look, I'm OK, great even, with demand decline. Ditto demand destruction, even if it is artificial via whatever co2 cost penalty or other mechanism. Because of course controls can be controlled: taylored, adjusted, modified.

But just as you and others go on about all the previous peaks that weren't, I was harping on perceived peak demand in 2011 and before. Price was causing demand to fall and peak demand first hit the headlines in the oughts. But, lo and behold, as soon as the price fell, out came the F-250s, SUVs and Hellcats. Voilá, no demand peak. Light trucks were taking over car sales in fact. By 2019 the recovery was getting a little long in the tooth. Money was essentially cost-free and even so new car sales were stalled at 2015 levels.

Luckily time has moved on some from '05 and there are substitutes becoming available, hallelujah. However, if 2% per year from today turns out to be industry standard decline it is not going to be happy motoring, especially on top of elective destruction. And of course that doesn't count the LTO rate.

Can EVs replace the fleet at that clip? I don't know.
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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby Pops » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 16:30:15

Here's the visual

Image
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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 16:37:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'S')upply has no near-term requirement to decline

Shell just said their supply will decline 2% per year. I think I'll take their word on this at least.


Sure...I said there is no requirement they need to do so. They are making a choice.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')But just as you and others go on about all the previous peaks that weren't, I was harping on perceived peak demand in 2011 and before. Price was causing demand to fall and peak demand first hit the headlines in the oughts.


For those who just started paying attention in this century maybe. Anyone who was around, in industry or close to it during the 80's knew what decreased demand meant. Consumers didn't care, they were just happy with the resulting prices related to oversupply. The global peak oil of 1979 lasted for more than 15 years, which means that demand was less during all that time as well.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')However, if 2% per year from today turns out to be industry standard decline it is not going to be happy motoring, especially on top of elective destruction. And of course that doesn't count the LTO rate.


2% isn't the industry standard decline. It is higher, and dependent on a combination of field size, age and location that I won't pontificate on here.

Let us assume 2% globally (rather than just Shell's claim), just for fun. What happens next is a relationship between natural production decline (assumed at 2%) and demand destruction. An imbalance between the two will cause the usual price responses, and because higher prices to new supply can involve a lag measured in years (see 2011-2015), there will undoubtedly be different combinations of imbalance driving different price levels. No different than when demand was increasing, except with the pressure on industry generally being downward, squeezing out marginal producers one by one. There won't be any head space to bring new supply online into, all they can do is ease some price pressure while making up for natural field decline.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Can EVs replace the fleet at that clip? I don't know.

Tony Seba was laying it out years ago. Can't say I agree with everything he says, but he demonstrates he has thought about it more than us normal folk.
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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby NovaVeles » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 18:52:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '[')url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0]Tony Seba was laying it out years ago.[/url] Can't say I agree with everything he says, but he demonstrates he has thought about it more than us normal folk.


My issue I have have with Tony Seba's analysis is that it seems to founded almost entirely in economics theory without any regard for the fundamentals of actually doing this stuff. All the extrapolation is well and good but it seems to be on the idea that most of this progress is in an exponential fashion rather than the typical S-curve these things run on. The idea of hard physical limits just doesn't seem to apply. Look at Moore's law, it has been dead and done since about 2010 because of hard limits and yet it is not really addressed by many folks, especially in economics circles, pushing for these brighter futures.

Jeremy Riffkin, another economist, said something very similar to Seba around 2015 and they both use very similar arguments. That worries me, because he has been wrong almost every time by being far to optimistic about the progress of these things. He said in the mid 90's that we would be automated out of all work by the far off year of 2000!

I really hope Seba is correct on a lot of these things but I wouldn't put much money on it. It has been a long time since I saw Seba's talk but didn't he put the total conversion date at about 2030? If so that is an astoundingly tall order and one that will have to be achieved with a declining energy resource/higher price energy resource.
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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby aadbrd » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 19:21:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NovaVeles', 'a') declining energy resource/higher price energy resource.


Where is the declining resource and higher price regime coming from? We don't see it reflected in your OP, which is about peak oil demand rather than supply. And peak oil in relation to demand is the only thing I have seen mentioned literally for years now. It's a far cry from the days of the late Matt Simmons getting on CNBC warning about Saudi Arabia hiding its peak.
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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 12 Feb 2021, 20:33:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NovaVeles', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '[')url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0]Tony Seba was laying it out years ago.[/url] Can't say I agree with everything he says, but he demonstrates he has thought about it more than us normal folk.


My issue I have have with Tony Seba's analysis is that it seems to founded almost entirely in economics theory without any regard for the fundamentals of actually doing this stuff.


Well, he is talking about processes that have happened, and obviously in the past, they happened without regard to restrictions people thought in the day. The claimed peak oil in 1919 in the US, it certainly didn't stop cars from advancing beyond his 1913 example.

My beef with him tends to be his timing estimates, and banking on autonomous driving which doesn't appear to be popping up with the rapidity he assumes, and is needed, to make his overarching idea work.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NovaVeles', '
')All the extrapolation is well and good but it seems to be on the idea that most of this progress is in an exponential fashion rather than the typical S-curve these things run on. The idea of hard physical limits just doesn't seem to apply.


He lays out how these things follow an S-curve quite well. Did you catch that part?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NovaVeles', '
') Look at Moore's law, it has been dead and done since about 2010 because of hard limits and yet it is not really addressed by many folks, especially in economics circles, pushing for these brighter futures.


Moore's law was just an example he used, and he did have exactly that application still happening with things like LIDAR and processing size (as opposed to processing power per unit $).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NovaVeles', '
')I really hope Seba is correct on a lot of these things but I wouldn't put much money on it.


I already have. Two EVs in the garage. And his claim of lack of moving parts, lack of maintenance, etc etc, were spot on. I've got no interest in the autonomous driving part yet, my most recent EV is a first step into only battery land, and I want nothing to do with the autonomous part. Yet. Let others be the first adopters, I'll buy used and on the cheap after the bugs are worked out.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NovaVeles', '
') It has been a long time since I saw Seba's talk but didn't he put the total conversion date at about 2030? If so that is an astoundingly tall order and one that will have to be achieved with a declining energy resource/higher price energy resource.

He also claimed world peak oil around 2020, or the early 2020's. And he said nothing about eroei, because it is a crock of nonsense in the resource extraction world. Its proponents have certainly proven that beyond a shadow of a doubt right here on this very website.
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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby Pops » Sat 13 Feb 2021, 11:02:05

Just to recap, one of the largest oil companies in the world just announced its oil production is in decline, not that nobody wants its product, not that it is buying up competitor's resources, but that its oil production has peaked:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')hell said its oil production has now peaked and will decline by up to 2% each year, with “traditional fuel” output expected to fall 55% by the end of this decade.


This ain't some boutique producer

Image
..

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aadbrd', 'W')here is the declining resource and higher price regime coming from? We don't see it reflected in your OP, which is about peak oil demand rather than supply.

It says nothing about demand: zip. The very first line as well as the title says "production has now peaked" — how much clearer can it be? The hook is "decarbonization" with buzzwords like capture, biofuel, hydrogen. value over volume. This is tantamount to Marlboros volunteering to transitioning to chewing gum.


All I can think is they're setting around thanking god for GW because it gives them cover. Call me a cynic but I'm fairly sure this is not out of some environmental consciousness awakening.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Adam', 'T')ony Seba

You can call me a party pooper too, because I seriously doubt 80% of cars in the US are going to disappear in the next 10 years. He may have grabbed a headline back when, predicting we'll all Uber and Hyperloop, but he was projecting a trendline from the high price era '06-'14. In the US at least, people like their freedom. After the historically high prices vehicles and miles traveled fell, no surprise. But as soon as fuel prices collapsed driving went right back up. Uber is great when my car is broke down, though.

Image

--

Peak demand has been greatly exaggerated. Not surprisingly by the same people who repeat, endlessly: "yeahbut PO was forecast in 1732!"

Demand was still climbing right up to the lockdowns...

Image

Image

---

Shell is making a really smart marketing move if you ask me. It is perfect timing with the demand collapse from the plague giving cover and Biden coming back strong against carbon. To use decarbonization as cover for what seems inevitable decline is ballsy, remember Beyond Petroleum and the freakout it created here? BP was as surprised by LTO as anyone, LOL. This is along the same lines except no between the lines interpretation is needed, you do have to read the lines though.
.
Shell website:
https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-me ... ategy.html

Some other stories:
https://www.ft.com/content/2aed103b-6d1 ... de2b928de9
https://apnews.com/article/shell-plans- ... 7847274395
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Re: Shell announces peak of its oil production

Unread postby aadbrd » Sat 13 Feb 2021, 11:43:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'J')ust to recap, one of the largest oil companies in the world just announced its oil production is in decline, not that nobody wants its product


That's not my reading of the article.

BTW, go to their homepage. It's chock-full of greenwashing. There is a ton of cognitive dissonance in the oil industry lately where they try to reconcile polluting the planet with their public image (for those who give a damn, mostly in Europe as the US public still doesn't care much). This is consistent with the news article. At some point a cigar is just a cigar.

Not only that, the world NEEDS oil companies to be part of the solution rather than having to be dragged kicking and screaming into it. If they see the writing on the wall (even from a pure demand/regulatory perspective) why is it so inconceivable that they would want to transition off of it?

Look at some countries in the Middle-east like Dubai. Look at Saudi Arabia investing in Lucid. We've become so used to the idea of fossil fuel money trying to prolong the status quo that we have a hard time conceiving that some may finally come around to the necessity of transition.

This would make even more sense in the context of GM's announcement to get almost completely off of ICE vehicles by 2035--the same GM that fueled the cynicism about Who Killed the Electric Car. The world changes and even big industries can change.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')they're setting around thanking god for GW because it gives them cover.


Shell is a public company. If they are being forced to cut production due to geology rather than it being demand/regulatory-driven then you should be able to find evidence.

But let's say for the sake of argument that both are true. As long as we move off of oil in parallel with depletion then it should still preclude the classic peak oil doomsday scenario.
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