[MD]

If you want people to stop laughing at you, stop telling them that oil prices will continue to soar.

Peak oil does not mean prices will ratchet relentlessly upward, and the PO crowd really needs to latch onto that simple fact.

Instead, you will see very bad energy price driven recessions with wildly fluctuating energy prices. It has already started, just look.

I don't tell people that there will be oil shortages, if fact we will likely have an oil glut during much of the next 36 months.

Gleefully running up the posts every time a price spike occurs while shouting "see! see! peak oil has started" is completely counter productive.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'a')aron,

I'm always interested in these "inflation" charts. I read some good critiques on them, bc the charts, like all charts, are based on plugged in numbers. First, who compiled this particular chart? Do you know what inflation rate they plugged in? How they valued the dollar?

There was an interesting counter-argument I read, although don't completely understand, that these inflation charts are skewed bc they don't take into account a dollar that has decreased in value over the same time period. That these charts only use the rising cost of goods using gov't inflation numbers (arguably skewed in and of themselves) but don't take into consideration the fact that the dollar has decreased in value over that same period of time. I'm probably not doing the argument justice. Any thoughts?

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')pecop_007 wrote:
People assume Peak Oil is Peak Energy.
It is not.

Peak oil is real, peak energy (Which peak oil is correlated too) is a myth.

To put it simply, nothing is going to change except how we get our energy.

[Specop_007]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')Not moronic at all... although presumptive.

This is the central question really.

Will a new oil emerge?

And perhaps more important... If a new oil does emerge... is that a good thing?

It's kinda like a trust-fund kid, who inherits millions & proceeds to spend it all quickly, with the belief that when it's gone, he can just find another pile of money.

Maybe he will... but perhaps he won't.

But if he does find new money... is that good for him?

Or for everyone else?

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')bsolutely we will. Itmay not be as handyas oil, but wedefinately will. We will have to adapt and change a bit. Gone will be the days of turning up the heat 3 more degrees simply because we want to wear a t-shirt in the winter, and gone will be the days of 500 HP sports cars. But definately, we will carry on.

Is it good or not? Well, I'm a doomer and I hate people, so definately I would say its not good, not good at all. I guess at thispoint my hopes for the destruction ofmankind rest on zombies, alien invasion, a big ass asteroid and Gods Second Coming.
What are you giving me for odds on those?

[Specop_007]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')
Well I give you 50-50... but there is only a 10% chance of that...

[Aaron]

Yes the same... but in greater proportion.

The "energy gap"

Saying it's "more of the same" or "business as usual" is trite.

I say our planet has never faced such potential catastrophe.

And the consequences will compare to our current conflicts, as crack compares to Sanka.

[Specop_007]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'Y')es the same... but in greater proportion.

The "energy gap"

Saying it's "more of the same" or "business as usual" is trite.

I say our planet has never faced such potential catastrophe.

And the consequences will compare to our current conflicts, as crack compares to Sanka.

[Specop_007]

My spacebar is flaky on my keyboard.

Sometimes my words run together, fear not I'm well aware ofhow English sentence structure is supposed to work. My keyboard doesnt always agree with me however.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Am I my brothers keeper?"

[Specop_007]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Am I my brothers keeper?"

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Am I my brothers keeper?"

[Specop_007]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')
Isn't the reality though that we all live in the world we collectively create?

I can say "sucks to be you" all I like, but at the end of the day, I'm stuck dealing with the consequences of a large & growing pissed-off majority.

My study of human history is incomplete, but I do have a sense that our track record for handling the kinds of challenges peak oil is certain to bring is less than desirable, to be exceptionally kind.

When the dust has cleared, I expect the depletion of conventional oil to widen the rich/poor gap to never before seen proportions.

And to the extent this gap grows, I contend that conflict will grow at similar rates.

What's so old think about that?

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut the people in the fringe countries (N. Korea and other devleopingnations, China to a lesser extent) actually fall backwards to what we would consider abyssmal levels, or in fact never even get a chance to advance to a better standard of living.
Essentially, those places that are just starting to take baby steps to being developed countries crash back down and those established, well devloped countries continue on with very little noticable effect.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', 'P')eople assume Peak Oil is Peak Energy.
It is not.

Peak oil is real, peak energy (Which peak oil is correlated too) is a myth.

To put it simply, nothing is going to change except how we get our energy.

[Specop_007]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', 'P')eople assume Peak Oil is Peak Energy.
It is not.

Peak oil is real, peak energy (Which peak oil is correlated too) is a myth.

To put it simply, nothing is going to change except how we get our energy.

[Lokutus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', 'P')eople assume Peak Oil is Peak Energy.
It is not.

Peak oil is real, peak energy (Which peak oil is correlated too) is a myth.

To put it simply, nothing is going to change except how we get our energy.

[erl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'I') am soooo jellus.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', 'P')eople assume Peak Oil is Peak Energy.
It is not.

Peak oil is real, peak energy (Which peak oil is correlated too) is a myth.

To put it simply, nothing is going to change except how we get our energy.

[Specop_007]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', '
')
Nice life you've built for yourself, sparky.

Gas station attendant by day.

Message board stud by night.

I am soooo jellus.

Carry on.