by Plantagenet » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 15:50:16
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')he WSJ is reporting that Saudi Arabia is not going to go through with its plan to sell shares in Aramco and its oil assets
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the WSJ just reported that ARAMCO insiders actually want the IPO called off.
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they probably won't do the IPO.
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Actually, ARAMCO has so far failed to successfully offer its IPO and appears to be on the brink of abandoning their plan to do an IPO at all.
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according to the WSJ some top officials at ARAMCO don't want the IPO to happen at all.
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the WSJ and other media sources are reporting that the ARAMCO IPO is likely toast anyway.
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ARAMCO insiders are leaking to reporters at WSJ and elsewhere the news that the IPO ain't happen....
You are normally a fairly sharp person, kublikhan, but this time you really don’t get it. The discussion you are quoting began several years ago when Saudi Aramco first proposed doing an IPO in New York or London. There were numerous discussions through the years about Saudi Aramco’s proposal to do an IPO several years ago on a major stock exchange like New York or London. MY position was that this was unlikely to happen. ANd in case you didn’t notice....IT DIDN’T HAPPEN.
I’m surprised that you don’t understand that just as the Wall Street Journal and I predicted back then, it didn’t happen. Perhaps you didn’t notice, but I was right——the IPO didn’t get done as planned in New York or London or Paris or Tokyo or in Beijing or on any major exchange.
Year after year the long promised IPO for New York or London or somewhere was discussed, and it didn’t happen.
Now, four years after Saudi Aramco first proposed doing their IPO on a major stock exchange, the Saudis have given up. They were unable to do their IPO on a western exchange, mainly because the disclosure requirements were too much for them. Again, just as I predicted.
I despair of you, Kublikhan. Time has marched on. Saudi Aramco failed to do their IPO in New York as they planned. The WSJ and I were 100% correct. I suggest you face the facts and admit it.
———————————————-
So what’s happening now?
The latest news is that the Saudis have conceded failure on their plan to do their IPO in a major stock exchange, and will instead do the IPO on their own tiny stock exchange in Saudi Arabia, where the ROyal Family can directly influence the process and where disclosure rules are weak to non-existent.
One of the more interesting things about this new plan is that the valuation of the IPO has now become very controversial. Prince Muhammad is predicting a two trillion dollar valuation, but western banks are lower....as much as 25% to 50% lower on the low side.
Of course, when you do your IPO on a podunk local stock exchange where you control the financial disclosure requirements and there is no independent media reporting and your main refining facility was just blown up by some mysterious rocket attack, there is likely to be some concern among investors about the nature and value and inherent risk of the IPO.
Another factor is that Saudi Aramco lost so much time in their failed efforts to do the IPO in New York that the global IPO market has now cooled off. The bottom line here is that questions raised by the long delay and the now the fact that Saudi Aramco has been reduced to doing the IPO on the teeny tiny local Saudi stock exchange may cost them as much as 500 billion to one trillion dollars in market value for the IPO.
The loss of a few hundred billion or even a trillion dollars might not be a big thing to you, but If this IPO goes badly, the Saudis will regret their inability to do a more conventional IPO in a better regulated and more prominent international Market like NEw York or London.
CHEERS!
by rockdoc123 » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 17:05:24
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')’m surprised that you don’t understand that just as the Wall Street Journal and I predicted back then, it didn’t happen. Perhaps you didn’t notice, but I was right——the IPO didn’t get done as planned in New York or London or Paris or Tokyo or in Beijing or on any major exchange.
No, you claimed that the IPO was canceled entirely. It wasn’t, it was postponed as Aramco had said all along. And from the very start Aramco talked about starting with a listing on the SA exchange followed by listing on an International exchange. That has not changed, not one iota. But you are pretty good at attempting to reinvent history.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he latest news is that the Saudis have conceded failure on their plan to do their IPO in a major stock exchange, and will instead do the IPO on their own tiny stock exchange in Saudi Arabia, where the ROyal Family can directly influence the process and where disclosure rules are weak to non-existent.
Apparently you are having problems with reading comprehension. Aramco and the oil minister have both said this is the first step. They will evaluate and then decide on when and where to list Internationally. With a goal to listing 5% of the company it can’t all be done on the Saudi exchange which is why they are starting with 1% - 2%. Perhaps you can show us where Aramco stated they attempted to do an IPO in New York or London but failed? They haven’t so don’t bother looking for it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course, when you do your IPO on a podunk local stock exchange where you control the financial disclosure requirements and there is no independent media reporting and your main refining facility was just blown up by some mysterious rocket attack, there is likely to be some concern among investors about the nature and value and inherent risk of the IPO.
Again short term memory and illiteracy seem to have created a problem for you. The finances of the company are already out there, they were audited along with the reserves and posted for anyone who wanted to read them when the Bond was issued on international markets this year so there is nothing that they can hold back at this point in time. Saudi production is almost back to where it was before the attacks which means there should be no impact on the finances or reserves from this point forward. And as to "podunk" the Tadawul is the largest capital market in the Middle East and Africa and with the Aramco IPO which could make up 5% of its market it will become quite significant globally.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nother factor is that Saudi Aramco lost so much time in their failed efforts to do the IPO in New York that the global IPO market has now cooled off. The bottom line here is that questions raised by the long delay and the now the fact that Saudi Aramco has been reduced to doing the IPO on the teeny tiny local Saudi stock exchange may cost them as much as 500 billion to one trillion dollars in market value for the IPO.
by Plantagenet » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 18:47:55
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'T')hose quotes are from last year, 2018.
In January 2016 Prince Muhammad announced his plan to have Saudi Aramco do an IPO in New York or other major international marketplace. Do I even have to explain to you how the calendar works? That's almost four years we've been talking about this same topic.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 't')hey quote you talking about the IPO being toast, dead, not happening at all... Now you are ... trying to say you only meant it wouldn't get done in New York or London.
Thats because from 2016 to the first half of 2019 Saudi Aramco insisted they were going to do an IPO in New York or London, and I (and most financial analysts like those I quoted from the WSJ) felt that would never happen. And indeed it didn't happen.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')These are the predictions you are doing a victory lap about?
Yes, precisely. I maintained for years (along with many financial journalists) that Saudi Aramco would never do the IPO they proposed to do in New York, London or other major market because they would balk at meeting the disclosure requirements.
And now we see they have given up that plan. Thats means I was totally right!
And another thing.....those disclosure requirements are key here. In addition to not understanding what the discussion was about, you also seem to have been totally oblivious to the reasons I posted explaining why Saudi Aramco would never be able to do an IPO in New York or London. Major open markets like those in New York or London have DISCLOSURE REQUIREMENTS. Companies are required to disclose all relevant financial information before they are allowed to go ahead with their IPOs. Prince Muhammad and the Saudi Royal family don't want to disclose the amount of control they have over Saudi Aramco. They want to pretend that its an independent company like any other company, and that future business decisions will be made purely in the interest of the company. But this isn't true. Saudi Arabia is a monarchy and the Royal family basically controls and largely owns Saudi Aramco and at any time they can make Saudi Aramco do anything they like.
Thats why they have given up their plans and are now listing on the teeny tiny Saudi stock exchange...the saudi royal family also has a great deal of influence there, so they won't have to make a full financial disclosure to do the IPO in Saudi.
I have to tell you it feels very good to be totally vindicated in my views and in four years (!) of my past posts in this thread. Its a rare thing to argue over a topic with ill-informed people for four years and then to be proven totally and completely correct. It feels FANTASTICALLY GOOD!
It feels so GOOD to be proven totally and completely CORRECT! Unnnh! Unnnh! Watch me now. Work it on out. Lets hear a base line from the band. Now how about that rhythm guitar. Drums set down the beat. OK. Here we go. I"m GOOD. I'm GOOD. I'm RIGHT! I'm proven RIGHT! FEELS so GOOD! FEELS so RIGHT! YEAH! YEAH! YEAH!
Cheers!
by rockdoc123 » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 19:02:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hats because Saudi Aramco was proposing to do an IPO in New York or London, and I (and most financial analysts like those I quoted from the WSJ) felt that would never happen. And indeed it didn't happen.
They said right out of the gate that they would consider doing an IPO on the Saudi market along with an international IPO. This is not an either or situation. You have selective memory.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, precisely. I maintained for years (along with many financial journalists) that Saudi Aramco would never do the IPO they proposed to do in New York, London or other major market because they would balk at meeting the disclosure requirements.
And now we see they have given up that plan.
I just quoted for you Aramco stating they are still looking at an International IPO. They want to sell 5% of the company to the market and are only doing 1-2% on the Tawadul. Is your math that bad? Please show us a quote from Aramco or the ministry stating they are not going to pursue an international listing? Otherwise please just shut up, your antics and nonsense are tiresome.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n addition to not understanding what the discussion was about, you also seem to have been totally oblivious to the reasons I posted explaining why Saudi Aramco would never be able to do an IPO in New York or London. Major open markets like those in New York or London have DISCLOSURE REQUIREMENTS. Companies are required to disclose all relevant financial information before they are allowed to go ahead with their IPOs. Prince Muhammad and the Saudi Royal family don't want to disclose the amount of control they have over Saudi Aramco. They want to pretend that its an independent company like any other company, and that future business decisions will be made purely in the interest of the company. But this isn't true. Saudi Arabia is a monarchy and the Royal family basically controls and largely owns Saudi Aramco.
OK. How short term is your memory? Just a few pages back in this discussion the full prospectus from Aramco’s bond issue was discussed. It is a public document that many of us have read. It describes in detail the last 3 years financials and the D&M reserve audit results. You were involved in that discussion and now pretending it didn’t happen? Just like you are pretending you never said the IPO was canceled? All of the disclosure required to list anywhere is already in the public through the Bond prospectus. There is nothing left of any material value that can be hidden. The only difference with the Tawdul vs other regulators is in the degree of continual disclosure. And the number of shares that the Saudi family own doesn’t change whether it is listed just in Saudi or anywhere else. It is those shares that govern their voting power. The government will always own the majority of shares….it doesn’t matter where it is listed.
by rockdoc123 » Tue 05 Nov 2019, 00:15:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')gain, the financial journalists at FORBES are concerned about the exact same things I've been pointing out......the lack of disclosure necessary to do an IPO on the tiny Tadawul stock market makes this IPO much different then a typical IPO done in New York or London.
OK. This is getting frustrating, its like dealing with a little kid. I already pointed out that Aramco has stated the prospectus for the IPO will be out on November 9th. All valuation details will be released at that time as they normally would be. And as always either your reading comprehension is exceptionally poor or you just like to make crap up. The article did not state anything about "the lack of disclosure necessary to do an IPO on the tiny Tadawul stock market", what it said was investors were not yet aware of certain information....as they normally wouldn't be until the freaking prospectus is released. Why would you think otherwise? And once again.....everything regarding Aramco's finances and reserves has already been released this year in the prospectus for the international bond. All that is missing with regards to this IPO is the details regarding what value investors should expect for their share ownership.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ts not even clear if the few metrics Saudi Aramco has released can be trusted, since there is no independent verification being done by the Saudi stock exchange.
where does it say that anywhere? Certainly not in the article you posted. You just made that up.
The only independent verification anyone needs is on the finances of the company three years of which have been audited and that audit was released as part of the bond offering and the amount of reserves the companies has and that was also audited by D&M and released in the same bond prospectus. Details regarding any specifics with respect to this particular IPO will be released in the prospectus in a months time and the price will be set soon after that. This is the way all IPO's work.
