by Pops » Fri 04 Mar 2022, 10:05:30
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'S')hipping will decline, we will make more locally, we will use less. But it will be forced upon us.
That's about the gist of it. I have no doubt that without the Energy Fairy blessing us with Mr. Fusion or some such, lots of what's now seems old and quaint will rediscovered. The question is whether society at large decides to invest proactively in a fossil free low power, low growth future future or if we invest what capital we have left on killing each other off.
My guess, today, is we'll have a pretty rapid decline from the fracking fraud down to wherever conventional is at sometime in the next 20-30 years. Probably at about the time lots of MRC wells water out. Right now conventional isn't falling too fast, obviously that will change. By 2050-60 or so we'll be back down to 20-25Gb (35Gb in 2019). And of course the economy "wants" production to grow at a couple of percent a year so by 2055 production without any effort to transition "should be" 70Gb. The difference between 25 & 70Gb is a lot of evaporated capital.
That is IF oil prices stay high enough to continue pumping
and demand can afford to pay, which is doubtful. And EVs & RE don't grow fast enough to displace fossils.
OTOH, lots of stuff can happen, including vast fraud and lying in the fossil industry/politics could make all the forecasts moot. Rocdoc argued up and down that US oil companies never lie, because SEC. Well there is FBI and banks are robbed daily anyway.
Fraud story here. Pretty well everyone believes OPEC lies about paper barrels, and with good reason. Heck, KSA is trying to pawn it's oil fields off and if that ain't a clue.
So peak or not is turning out to be less important than I thought, we're in trouble already
.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)