Many highway maintenance projects up in the air.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financia ... _home_down
PeakOil is You
Rough ride in the family truckster this summer
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Rough ride in the family truckster this summer
by SD_Scott » Wed 15 Jun 2005, 16:13:49
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SD_Scott - Coal
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Don't expect it to change!
by Dvanharn » Wed 15 Jun 2005, 17:00:13
I expect to see physical infrastructures in the U.S. and elsewhere begin to crumble faster thanthey can be maintained, much less build all of the new projects that people (and politicians) would have on the books. This, of course will lead to a loss of jobs, and a decrease in gross income for the heavy construction industry.
Construction spending forecast
If you read the above linked June 15, 2005 article from www.constructionequipment.com, you will see that that industry is apparently taking the Michael Lynch line - petroleum prices will drop by the end of the year, and growth in construction will continue unabated.
I don't think many critical industries that depend on growth have accepted "the end of cheap oil" yet. I have a feeling that in a year or so, reality might start to set in for more companies, although their executives will probably continue to voice optimistic forecasts as long as they can get away with it simply to keep their stock prices from collapsing. To do anything else would be to a sin for modern capitalistic managers - and an invitation for their companies to fail quickly
Interesting times ahead.
Dave
Construction spending forecast
If you read the above linked June 15, 2005 article from www.constructionequipment.com, you will see that that industry is apparently taking the Michael Lynch line - petroleum prices will drop by the end of the year, and growth in construction will continue unabated.
I don't think many critical industries that depend on growth have accepted "the end of cheap oil" yet. I have a feeling that in a year or so, reality might start to set in for more companies, although their executives will probably continue to voice optimistic forecasts as long as they can get away with it simply to keep their stock prices from collapsing. To do anything else would be to a sin for modern capitalistic managers - and an invitation for their companies to fail quickly
Interesting times ahead.
Dave
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Dvanharn - Lignite
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by pup55 » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 10:20:03
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't think many critical industries that depend on growth have accepted "the end of cheap oil" yet.
I'll say.
I am directly in the petrochemical/automotive supply chain, and the corporate weasels who predict this stuff at our place are still projecting strong demand growth and no supply issues for the next several years. I am active in various trade associations also, and the "official sentiment" if you want to call it that, is still calling for strong economic growth and continued availability of feedstocks. The "unofficial sentiment", which is watercooler/open bar conversation at these conventions, by people who are actually in the field, is much more pessimistic.
I can't figure it personally, except that the corporate planning types typically predict what their bosses tell them to predict, and also, they rely on optimistic government assessments of the situation (such as the US-EIA) as the basis of their forecasts, which is convenient for CYA purposes.
There is a disconnect from reality someplace. Maybe no one wants to be the first one to yell "stampede".
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pup55 - Light Sweet Crude
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by Doly » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 10:32:20
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '
')There is a disconnect from reality someplace. Maybe no one wants to be the first one to yell "stampede".
')There is a disconnect from reality someplace. Maybe no one wants to be the first one to yell "stampede".
Maybe it's the classic gap between what salesguys and techies think. It hasn't caused any far-reaching disasters yet, but maybe we've just been lucky so far.
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Doly - Expert
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by pup55 » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 10:40:35
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't think many critical industries that depend on growth have accepted "the end of cheap oil" yet.
I'll say.
I am directly in the petrochemical/automotive supply chain, and the corporate weasels who predict this stuff at our place are still projecting strong demand growth and no supply issues for the next several years. I am active in various trade associations also, and the "official sentiment" if you want to call it that, is still calling for strong economic growth and continued availability of feedstocks. The "unofficial sentiment", which is watercooler/open bar conversation at these conventions, by people who are actually in the field, is much more pessimistic.
I can't figure it personally, except that the corporate planning types typically predict what their bosses tell them to predict, and also, they rely on optimistic government assessments of the situation (such as the US-EIA) as the basis of their forecasts, which is convenient for CYA purposes.
There is a disconnect from reality someplace. Maybe no one wants to be the first one to yell "stampede".
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pup55 - Light Sweet Crude
- Posts: 5249
- Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00
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