Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby Snowrunner » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 20:09:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'A')dd this to the impending credit card implosion crises and then the impending commercial real estate catastrophe, and 2009 is going to be the worst year in history. 2008 will seem like a bull market compared to 2009.
Credit card companies are going to take huge hits. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch. This could be almost as big as subprime. What a flustercluck!

Credit Card companies are the banks. Don't mistake Visa and Mastercard with them.

AmEx is a different thing, but they are essentially "charge cards", if anything they will limit the amount people can charge on it every month.

What I am driving at: The ones holding the bucket on this one are the same banks that are crumbling under the current problems.
User avatar
Snowrunner
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 795
Joined: Wed 24 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Screwed

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby frankthetank » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 20:12:40

Rochester, MN has a very fancy new shopping center. It includes Target, Dsports, big Toyota dealship, Subway, and a few other places. I could just imagine what rent is for some of these places. I've been to the Dsports a few times and my brother and I always joke about when they are going to run their "going out of business sale", because EVERY time i've been there (3 or 4 times) its completely dead. There is usually more employees then customers. The target is a joke! It has a huge amount of checkout lanes and all the times i've been there, only a few are needed because the place is dead. My brother always finds good clearance on the meats there because i'm guessing they don't sell any!
lawns should be outlawed.
User avatar
frankthetank
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6202
Joined: Thu 16 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Southwest WI

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby MD » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 20:21:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'S')o how long until we Bailout Walmart?

Oh no we don't! Oh no!

Not gonna happen!

No way!
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
User avatar
MD
COB
COB
 
Posts: 4953
Joined: Mon 02 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: On the ball

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby Texas_T » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 20:26:58

Here where I live in central Massachusetts, and also in the Boston area, it seems to be just the opposite. Even with the constraints on land here, new shopping centers are under construction all over.

There is one new mega strip mall under construction in my town, and another just one town over. Several new ones either just completed or under construction in the Boston area.

And all of the regional malls have been expanding like crazy with Nordstroms and other upscale stores and the Cheesecake Factory and other restaurants.

Will be interesting to see how they all do....
Texas_T
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 49
Joined: Sun 22 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Central Massachusetts

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby nobodypanic » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 20:55:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'S')o how long until we Bailout Walmart?

great observation/question!

that's a perfect example of the stupidity involved here. while i think it's much harder to see when discussing bailing out the credit markets, i think it's much more obvious when discussing bailing out walmart.

think about it. what good does it do to bail out walmart if the people that shop there can no longer afford to do so? you have to bailout the consumer. in fact, if you bailed the consumer out, then everything would follow, i.e., you wouldn't have to bail walmart out.
User avatar
nobodypanic
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1103
Joined: Mon 02 Jun 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby seldom_seen » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 21:06:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', 'y')ou have to bailout the consumer. in fact, if you bailed the consumer out, then everything would follow, i.e., you wouldn't have to bail walmart out.

Actually bailing out the consumer wouldn't work either. It would be massively inflationary thus not accomplishing much (besides inflation).

There's really no way to paper over our problems whether it is shoved at the banks, the corps or the people.

We're f'in broke now. We'd better get used to it. We're going to have to live off the money we earn. There's no way we can consume & borrow our way back to prosperity.
seldom_seen
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2229
Joined: Tue 12 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby Eli » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 21:11:42

there is no plan B, with what we are facing.

People will be doing good to just try and survive.

If you want a picture of the future go look at Iceland clearing the grocery shelves as their imports dry up. Or just imagine a boot stomping on a human face forever.
User avatar
Eli
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3709
Joined: Sat 18 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Location: In a van down by the river

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby nobodypanic » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 21:25:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', 'y')ou have to bailout the consumer. in fact, if you bailed the consumer out, then everything would follow, i.e., you wouldn't have to bail walmart out.
Actually bailing out the consumer wouldn't work either. It would be massively inflationary thus not accomplishing much (besides inflation).
There's really no way to paper over our problems whether it is shoved at the banks, the corps or the people.
We're f'in broke now. We'd better get used to it. We're going to have to live off the money we earn. There's no way we can consume & borrow our way back to prosperity.

if we're going to spend money we don't have on something that'll never work, then why not spend it on the people.
User avatar
nobodypanic
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1103
Joined: Mon 02 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 22:42:00

Mall vacancy rates are creeping upward.

It will be very telling when seasonal hiring doesn't happen this Christmas shopping season.

We might not even have a noticeable Christmas shopping season this year. 8O

JC Penny, Macy's, Wal*Mart, Sears, and the rest are going to get hammered.
"www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Tyler_JC
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5438
Joined: Sat 25 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Boston, MA

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 23:06:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'S')o how long until we Bailout Walmart?
Oh no we don't! Oh no! Not gonna happen! No way!

Why not? Wally World fits all the necessary criteria. They are "too big to fail".

Reverse Engineer
User avatar
ReverseEngineer
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3352
Joined: Wed 16 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby frankthetank » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 23:18:32

Just a thought, but I had Sears dying years ago. How that company stays open, i'll never know. I go there too! I don't ever buy anything, but i go there :) The employees stand around and half the time you have to walk around them because they don't move. They do have a good selection of appliances, i think their automotive does OK...

The mall here is pretty small. Not sure how its doing because i never go there.

WalMart here is busy all the time. We have 2, and the one on the south end of town took a huge hit when the newer, bigger store opened on the north end. The south walmart doesn't get near the business, but has better deals. I could actually see them closing the south store at some point...

I'm waiting for bank branches to close. I've never understood why there are so many branches. A debit card and an ATM covers most things, throw in internet banking and direct deposit and you never have to go to the bank.
lawns should be outlawed.
User avatar
frankthetank
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6202
Joined: Thu 16 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Southwest WI

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby Rubin_Flagg » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 23:21:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', 'y')ou have to bailout the consumer. in fact, if you bailed the consumer out, then everything would follow, i.e., you wouldn't have to bail walmart out.
Actually bailing out the consumer wouldn't work either. It would be massively inflationary thus not accomplishing much (besides inflation). There's really no way to paper over our problems whether it is shoved at the banks, the corps or the people.
We're f'in broke now. We'd better get used to it. We're going to have to live off the money we earn. There's no way we can consume & borrow our way back to prosperity.

truer words seldom spoken here I agree totally.
User avatar
Rubin_Flagg
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 58
Joined: Wed 28 May 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby bromius » Wed 15 Oct 2008, 00:07:25

The city I live in recently allowed huge tax breaks to mall so it could expand. The big selling point was that it would increase economic activity in the area. I don't think the government here realizes that the pie is only so big. Expand the mall and it either goes unfilled or siphons business off from elsewhere. That was in decent economic times. I doubt the place will even be able to keep all its current spaces occupied let alone fill all the new ones (something like a million square feet worth).

What really sickens me is that the whole thing was marketed as "green", because some of the construction vehicles are using biodiesel and they put a few solar panels somewhere. Never mind that they just paved several acres so people can drive there from all over....
User avatar
bromius
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 248
Joined: Mon 26 May 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby seldom_seen » Wed 15 Oct 2008, 00:44:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', 'i')f we're going to spend money we don't have on something that'll never work, then why not spend it on the people.

I can't disagree with you. I would much rather see the gazillions somehow allocated to the people instead of Goldman Sachs. That unfortunately will never happen. The reason is that the printing press is never used for distributed aid to holders of a currency. That would render it powerless.

Here's a simple analogy. Say you have 10 people that all have 10 seashells used for barter. You now give all 10 people 5 more shells. Each person now has 15 shells, but their relative "wealth" has not changed with respect to the other people. Now instead, you give one person 50 shells. That person is now quite wealthy in relation to the other people.

That is the power of the printing press, and the gov/bank complex is drunk with power. It is more powerful than a nuclear bomb, and it is also a "secret weapon" used to raid 401ks, pension funds and savings accounts without anyone even noticing. We of course were warned about this. Thomas Jefferson specifically had a lot to say. Unfortunately his fears have become reality, in spades.

The printing press, when you think about it, is just like the mythical perpetual motion machine. Very seductive, very powerful, but not real. The banking system has just been promised "Unlimited" funds. No limits, infinity, free energy! This can only be interpreted as a sign of how really and truly fubar'd the system is. We know on this forum that economic growth is driven by real energy (primarily fossil fuels) not perpetual motion machines.

The printing press, despite its intoxicating power, has a limited shelf life and always ends in disaster.
seldom_seen
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2229
Joined: Tue 12 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby Barbara » Wed 15 Oct 2008, 03:15:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')he NBA ( national basketball association ) just announced it is laying off 80 employees. I am not talking about players, just people who work directly for the NBA. Meanwhile the commissioner is making 27 mil. He really needs his entire 27 mil ? He can't take 20 and let the 80 employees fight over the scraps ? wow

I love seeing you americans unknowingly becoming socialists... :P
**no english mothertongue**
--------
Objects in the rear view mirror
are closer than they appear.
Barbara
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1121
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Zoorope
Top

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Wed 15 Oct 2008, 03:42:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', 'I') love seeing you americans unknowingly becoming socialists... :P

I am an American, and I am unknowingly becoming nothing. So your presupposition here is false on prima facia evidence.

Where the heck are you from? I'll demonstrate to you how you are unknowingly becoming worm food :-) Or an outright slave to what was hidden slavery in your economy before this.

Many Americans are Stupid People. So are many Chinese, so are many Europeans. Nobody has exclusive rights to stupidity in the population. Stupidity is very egalitarian, it cuts across all National, Racial, Religious and Economic boundaries, you find stupid people EVERYWHERE. When we eliminate Stupidity is when we eliminate the problems.

Postulating that Americans have the Patent on Stupidity is plain stupid in itself. I suggest reevaluating this argument. LOL.
Reverse Engineer
User avatar
ReverseEngineer
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3352
Joined: Wed 16 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 15 Oct 2008, 09:01:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')he NBA ( national basketball association ) just announced it is laying off 80 employees. I am not talking about players, just people who work directly for the NBA. Meanwhile the commissioner is making 27 mil. He really needs his entire 27 mil? He can't take 20 and let the 80 employees fight over the scraps? wow
I love seeing you americans unknowingly becoming socialists... :P

I am 100% against the re-distribution of wealthy, but this is downright greed. 27 mill per year to be a commissioner? It's a little bit excessive, don't you think? But, I guess it's no different than anybody else making millions in any other industry.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7450
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo
Top

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby vision-master » Wed 15 Oct 2008, 09:02:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', 'I') love seeing you americans unknowingly becoming socialists... :P
I am an American, and I am unknowingly becoming nothing. So your presupposition here is false on prima facia evidence.
Where the heck are you from? I'll demonstrate to you how you are unknowingly becoming worm food :-) Or an outright slave to what was hidden slavery in your economy before this.
Many Americans are Stupid People. So are many Chinese, so are many Europeans. Nobody has exclusive rights to stupidity in the population. Stupidity is very egalitarian, it cuts across all National, Racial, Religious and Economic boundaries, you find stupid people EVERYWHERE. When we eliminate Stupidity is when we eliminate the problems.
Postulating that Americans have the Patent on Stupidity is plain stupid in itself. I suggest reevaluating this argument. LOL.

I never met a stupid Jew. :razz:
vision-master
 
Top

Re: Retail shakeout: 'Worst is yet to come'

Unread postby Revi » Wed 15 Oct 2008, 09:10:33

It would be great if we actually became the beneficiaries of the socialist system, but unfortunately the only things being socialized are the costs. Us taxpayers get to pay higher taxes, but we don't get any health care or college tuition.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 47 guests