[seahorse2]

As Simmons says, let's take a look in the "peak oil rear view mirror", but as the mirror warning says, "Objects May be Closer than They Appear."

First: "Opec Reveal Global Light Sweet Crude Peak"

Light Crude Peak Article

If true, this is significant bc it creates a more severe refining problem than discussed by the ICF report - see refinery shortage on this forum - "Refinery Shortage - ICF" see also the "peak refinery capacity = peak oil" thread. Bottom line, the world is at maxium refinery capacity and most of that capacity is geared to handle light sweet crude. The linked article says the rise in prices over the last few years has been the fact that light sweet has peaked and that, oil demand is rising, but refiners can't process the heavier stuff. Case in point, after Katrina/Rita, SA couldn't sell their heavy oil.

Second: "Oil Majors See Extraction Fall"

Article, Oil Majors Production Peak

If true, this is significant bc most analyst put the date closer to 2010 (Oil Gas Journal averaged the "crossover" date to be 2009). If the majors have peaked, this means OPEC has to make up the shortfall now and that, politically, power shifts to OPEC. Keep in mind that despite higher oil prices and higher demand, OPEC output has not risen significantly over the last year. I'm not posting the links, but look at the IEA Monthly Oil Reports or the OPEC Monthly Oil Reports, pick any month and year, compare. IEA report for August 2004 shows OPEC at 29.1 mbpd. IEA report for September 2005 shows OPEC at 29.67 mbpd.

Third, saudi Arabia has not produced any more oil in the last year, despite higher prices and higher demand.

Despite increase in demand and prices for oil, Saudi Arabia has not pumped any more oil in 2005 than it did in December 2004. I'm not providing the link, but in the IEA monthly oil report for December 2004, SA produced 9.55 mbpd. In August 2005, IEA says SA produced 9.56 mbpd.

Fourth, OPEC Production is not Rising Significantly -

As mentioned above, IEA Monthly Report for August 2004 shows OPEC production at OPEC at 29.1 mbpd. IEA report for September 2005 shows OPEC at 29.67 mbpd.


WARNING - OBJECTS IN MIRROR ARE CLOSER THAN THEY APPEAR[B]

[rogerhb]

I've found this version strange as I am used to Meatloaf singing "Objects in the rear view mirror may appear closer than they are".

So which is right?

1. closer than they appear or
2. appear closer than they are.

[rkerver]

Everything is but appearance. How do you know anything is real?

[Bobbotov]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rkerver', 'E')verything is but appearance. How do you know anything is real?

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'I')'ve found this version strange as I am used to Meatloaf singing "Objects in the rear view mirror may appear closer than they are".

So which is right?

1. closer than they appear or
2. appear closer than they are.