[pup55]

Thanks for the encouragement......

Here is one of several potential scenarios, Note: for movie script purposes (c) 2009 pup55@peakoil.com, screenplay or teleplay rights reserved.....

a. Something bad happens to the source of food for those 18 million kids. Either there are a few years of dustbowl-like conditions in the midwest, or financial problems with the government, keeping them from getting their foodstamps, or maybe some distribution issues because of a fuel shortage. Either way, it's chaos and there are hungry kids.

b. In addition to a lot of miserable people hitting the streets, they look for food, and the logical places are the Christian Fundamentalist churches. Down here, in hillbilly territory, there are abundant churches and a lot of them do this type of food distribution work. Most of the poor are rural whites.....education is not a priority, simple folk, right? These churches have ways of getting food, and even if not, they serve as storehouses of knowledge in the fine art of tending a vegetable garden..... there are other social functions: counseling, settling of disputes, a gathering place, a networking place, so to speak for some support structure of some type.

c. As the turnmoil increases, and so does chaos, these institutions do a banner business. People that would not otherwise set foot near a church will become regulars. These places are already networked together, they do have their own agenda, political or otherwise, and increasingly they become the social structure in some regions.

Apparently, this is exactly what happened during the chaotic period at during the Iraq war, and also in Afghanistan: The mosques were the main social structure in both of those areas....

In the SE US, where I am, the line between church and state is really blurry anyway. It is still common for church services to be held in public buildings, and some of the local politicians are already catching flak for putting the Ten Commandments up in the courthouse, so it would be not difficult for a system of church/goverment integration to occur pretty quickly.

They already have advanced communications, satellites, and that kind of thing.

d. So, the "competing ideology", as it were, is "Christian Fundamentalism" as loosely defined by the leader, which will no doubt emerge from one of the Televangelists over here that are quite famous... In fact, there was a book "American Mullahs" in the not too distant past that describes this whole phenomenon. Now, it is quite true, to students of the bible, that a lot of what these characters preach is up to the interperetation of those designated to have received "the gift" and so, this ideology will be adapted slightly, as it was in the period between 1776 and 1860, to include whatever the Mullahs think is convenient (ref: the acceptance of the southern churches of slavery)....but, as the original 12 apostles find out, an empty stomach improves the receptivity of some of these ideas.

e. At some point, people find that the church/government/televangelist system is more effective than the US Central Government in providing social order, food distribution and probably medical care, and other social services, and at that point the secession will occur. Perhaps some mass-demonstrations.....TV propaganda. Naturally, this will be well-financed. Some of the aristocracy will sign onto this readily, others may take more time to be convinced.... since there is an undertone of this in a lot of corporations and among some of the multibillionaires that are around.

f. The US Armed Forces will be no doubt called in, like they have been at many points during our history, to keep some of this stuff under control. At some point, in fact, people will stop paying taxes, and go to "tithing" which is the same thing anyway, and at that point the government will be called in to shut some of the bigger establishments down. At that point, there are protests, and then a "Kent State" incident will happen, some 'accidental" shootings of demonstrators. This is your trigger event. Keep in mind that substantial portions of the US armed forces will be asked to shoot at their brothers and sisters, and they will have to choose between "Their God" and "Their Commanders"..... perhaps firing literally on their own home churches, and their home pastors at some point. At that point, you can see where portions of the military turn to the new ideology.....

g. Keep in mind that there are multiple millions of firearms in about 6 states in the US Southeast, that can be easily pointed in whatever direction to defend the homeland.....however you define the "homeland"

h. The Second War of Southern Independence starts, with a fractured military fighting itself.... and the whole thing being laid out on CNN and Fox News.....It has been said that if CNN existed in 1862 at time of the battle of Antietam, the outcry among the civilians in the North would have been so intense that it would have resulted in immediately ceasing the war, and the establishment of the Confederacy......

i. The central government, having no resources to conduct a war, half of the army gone, less efficient as a cohesive social force than the local church system cuts its losses and lets them go... or of not that, is so weak as to be ineffective, since the locals will also control the legal system and a lot of the local cops.....

The time frame on all of this is probably pretty long, I suppose it actually took a couple of years for the USSR to start to break up.... some of the little nations, maybe just a few months.... The famous statement was that Britain was just three days' food away from anarchy is probably pretty accurate.

But, all of the elements are in place....Maybe just Alabama will go first. I can't tell for sure which will be the first.

I can think of a couple more......

[mcgowanjm]

There will be a Constitutional Army. Especially when
the ZioFundies put up their Ten Commandments
Sharia Law.

The First/Last people attacked are the Secular Nationalists.

And we're ready.

[mcgowanjm]

And BTW, there has been ZERO harvested since I posted on it last.

And Famine, especially the last 200 years, has been about logistics/politics as much as it has been crop failure.

And of course the State will never tell you it's happening in real time.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/index.php

[the48thronin]

Think North/South Dakota, or Montana, or Idaho, or Wyoming...

Think little harvest in many places, sugar beets rotting because the first frost was followed by rain...

Think 60 percent of all food for sale in USA groceries is processed in or grown in Asia

Now rewrite you post AFTER you think about it.

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'T')hink North/South Dakota, or Montana, or Idaho, or Wyoming...

Think little harvest in many places, sugar beets rotting because the first frost was followed by rain...

Think 60 percent of all food for sale in USA groceries is processed in or grown in Asia

Now rewrite you post AFTER you think about it.

[pup55]

Yeah, the area in about a 150 mile radius of Minot is also ripe for forming its own little country. This almost happened a few years ago, ref: The Freemen...
[url]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montana_Freemen[/url]

We listed earlier the ingredients for a successful revolution. Not enough were in place at the time this happened. They kids were fat, they could not "turn" the FBI, and the aristocrats, to whatever extent there are aristocrats in Jordan, were also absent....

and the argument can be made that the sane leader did not emerge....At least one with the ability to correctly spell "justice"...

http://www.adl.org/Learn/Ext_US/Aryan_Nations.asp?LEARN_Cat=Extremism&LEARN_SubCat=Extremism_in_America&xpicked=3&item=an

I am also not thinking this group, HQ'd in Idaho, has a lot of popular support.... I can be convinced otherwise..... but the aristocrats are probably not behind them much, either.....

No, I can think of a much more likely one.....

[Pretorian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'T')hanks for the encouragement......

Here is one of several potential scenarios, Note: for movie script purposes (c) 2009 pup55@peakoil.com, screenplay or teleplay rights reserved.....

a. Something bad happens to the source of food for those 18 million kids. Either there are a few years of dustbowl-like conditions in the midwest, or financial problems with the government, keeping them from getting their foodstamps, or maybe some distribution issues because of a fuel shortage. Either way, it's chaos and there are hungry kids.

b. In addition to a lot of miserable people hitting the streets, they look for food, and the logical places are the Christian Fundamentalist churches. Down here, in hillbilly territory, there are abundant churches and a lot of them do this type of food distribution work. Most of the poor are rural whites.....education is not a priority, simple folk, right? These churches have ways of getting food, and even if not, they serve as storehouses of knowledge in the fine art of tending a vegetable garden..... there are other social functions: counseling, settling of disputes, a gathering place, a networking place, so to speak for some support structure of some type.

c. As the turnmoil increases, and so does chaos, these institutions do a banner business. People that would not otherwise set foot near a church will become regulars. These places are already networked together, they do have their own agenda, political or otherwise, and increasingly they become the social structure in some regions.

Apparently, this is exactly what happened during the chaotic period at during the Iraq war, and also in Afghanistan: The mosques were the main social structure in both of those areas....

In the SE US, where I am, the line between church and state is really blurry anyway. It is still common for church services to be held in public buildings, and some of the local politicians are already catching flak for putting the Ten Commandments up in the courthouse, so it would be not difficult for a system of church/goverment integration to occur pretty quickly.

They already have advanced communications, satellites, and that kind of thing.

d. So, the "competing ideology", as it were, is "Christian Fundamentalism" as loosely defined by the leader, which will no doubt emerge from one of the Televangelists over here that are quite famous... In fact, there was a book "American Mullahs" in the not too distant past that describes this whole phenomenon. Now, it is quite true, to students of the bible, that a lot of what these characters preach is up to the interperetation of those designated to have received "the gift" and so, this ideology will be adapted slightly, as it was in the period between 1776 and 1860, to include whatever the Mullahs think is convenient (ref: the acceptance of the southern churches of slavery)....but, as the original 12 apostles find out, an empty stomach improves the receptivity of some of these ideas.

e. At some point, people find that the church/government/televangelist system is more effective than the US Central Government in providing social order, food distribution and probably medical care, and other social services, and at that point the secession will occur. Perhaps some mass-demonstrations.....TV propaganda. Naturally, this will be well-financed. Some of the aristocracy will sign onto this readily, others may take more time to be convinced.... since there is an undertone of this in a lot of corporations and among some of the multibillionaires that are around.

f. The US Armed Forces will be no doubt called in, like they have been at many points during our history, to keep some of this stuff under control. At some point, in fact, people will stop paying taxes, and go to "tithing" which is the same thing anyway, and at that point the government will be called in to shut some of the bigger establishments down. At that point, there are protests, and then a "Kent State" incident will happen, some 'accidental" shootings of demonstrators. This is your trigger event. Keep in mind that substantial portions of the US armed forces will be asked to shoot at their brothers and sisters, and they will have to choose between "Their God" and "Their Commanders"..... perhaps firing literally on their own home churches, and their home pastors at some point. At that point, you can see where portions of the military turn to the new ideology.....

g. Keep in mind that there are multiple millions of firearms in about 6 states in the US Southeast, that can be easily pointed in whatever direction to defend the homeland.....however you define the "homeland"

h. The Second War of Southern Independence starts, with a fractured military fighting itself.... and the whole thing being laid out on CNN and Fox News.....It has been said that if CNN existed in 1862 at time of the battle of Antietam, the outcry among the civilians in the North would have been so intense that it would have resulted in immediately ceasing the war, and the establishment of the Confederacy......

i. The central government, having no resources to conduct a war, half of the army gone, less efficient as a cohesive social force than the local church system cuts its losses and lets them go... or of not that, is so weak as to be ineffective, since the locals will also control the legal system and a lot of the local cops.....

The time frame on all of this is probably pretty long, I suppose it actually took a couple of years for the USSR to start to break up.... some of the little nations, maybe just a few months.... The famous statement was that Britain was just three days' food away from anarchy is probably pretty accurate.

But, all of the elements are in place....Maybe just Alabama will go first. I can't tell for sure which will be the first.

I can think of a couple more......

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') would pay $6 to watch that

[rangerone314]

If things keep going as they are, you won't need a movie... you can just turn on TV and watch it there, live.

[IgnoranceIsBliss]

Another take on the "starving kids" aspect is that you could see a lot of infants starve in short time if there is a shortage of formula. Almost everyone I know depends on formula for their infants and as a result, mommy doesn't make milk anymore. Infants will start to weaken and dehydrate very quickly with a supply chain issue or WIC cut off. Formula is very expensive & I would bet you couldn't find more than a few hundred moms nationwide who have any stockpiled.

Just another depressing insight from a mom.

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IgnoranceIsBliss', 'A')nother take on the "starving kids" aspect is that you could see a lot of infants starve in short time if there is a shortage of formula. Almost everyone I know depends on formula for their infants and as a result, mommy doesn't make milk anymore. Infants will start to weaken and dehydrate very quickly with a supply chain issue or WIC cut off. Formula is very expensive & I would bet you couldn't find more than a few hundred moms nationwide who have any stockpiled.

Just another depressing insight from a mom.

[sittinguy]

TPTB will convince the kids that (revolution) is a cool new video game for their x-box.

[Pops]

I like fantasy as well as the next doomer, in fact I'm reading the unabridged and uncut version of The Stand currently. Some of you will remember, especially if you read the book, Glenn Bateman points out to Stu the real possibility that the survivors would congregate into small enclaves and might well become belligerent toward other groups.

The thing he pointed out is of course the big red dog in the room here, there are nukes lying around all over the US and if not nukes, conventional weapons that have everything but the glow.

Some later day Stars and Bars wannabes, Garner Ted Armstrong Disciples or whatever splinter group you can name simply won't be allowed to secede, might as well get over it, ain't gonna happen.

[Revi]

Things are unraveling here in Maine as well. There are a lot of people who won't take the end of cheap oil well. Most of their entertainment is centered around burning gas and drinking beer. Any slowdown in supply isn't going to go over well.

[rangerone314]

The big question is will the US handle a breakup or revolution attempt like China or the USSR, and will a Yeltsin-type emerge to lead, supported by the people.

It will be an interesting example to the world if the US turns on its own people when times are hard, slaughtering them with weapons to keep them from seceeding, when the evil empire USSR disbanded relatively peacefully (Chechens notwithstanding).

[pup55]

CHICAGO — Nearly half of all U.S. children and 90 percent of black youngsters will be on food stamps at some point during childhood, and fallout from the current recession could push those numbers even higher, researchers say.


Read more at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/02/food-stamps-will-feed-hal_n_342834.html

This horse is dead, beaten, dragged off and turned to glue, but I had to throw this one thing in....

The logic behind feeding the kids in the first place is so that you do not have a lot of starving kids around, right?

But, the problem is, without negative consequences for being stupid and having kids that you cannot support, there is nothing to stop the moms (it is, the moms, isn't it?} from cranking out a dozen....In fact, there is a lot of incentive FOR cranking out a dozen. It's a nice career if you can do it.

So the taxpayers are ultimately supporting half of the population at some point? How is this sustainable by any stretch of the imagination.....

[Novus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '
')
So the taxpayers are ultimately supporting half of the population at some point? How is this sustainable by any stretch of the imagination.....

[Revi]

I live in a county where over half of the kids get the free and reduced lunch. It also produces a lot of lumber and pulpwood. All this is done with giant machines that require a specialized workforce to harvest.

When I first got here about 20 years ago a lot of people talked about working in the woods, but now I almost never hear that.

Is it a fair trade that huge corporations take all the resources and give the kids who are residents in the area free and reduced lunch?

The population in our area is dropping, so the lunch isn't enough to keep them here.

[rangerone314]

One could argue the whole purpose for "civilization" as opposed to hunter-gatherers (who generally seemed to be able to support themselves at a lower population level) is to create a huge labor force of human beast-of-burdens to labor to keep a tiny portion of elites in material comfort.

The hunting-gathering the elites do is gathering the wealth that the masses create, and hunting for things to spend it on.

The illusion for the masses is that you too could win the economic "lottery" using "upward mobility" to become an elite, although the reality is that this is as likely as winning the lottery.