[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')nd you are doing your best to hasten TEOTWAWKI with a 15mpg commute in an uncomfortable inappropriate vehicle. tnx for nothing.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think they will move heaven and earth, and starve the poor before it becomes apparent to most people. In the US they have already reduced the amount of food stamps a lot of people are receiving by 3/4ths.

[KaiserJeep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')nd you are doing your best to hasten TEOTWAWKI with a 15mpg commute in an uncomfortable inappropriate vehicle. tnx for nothing.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'P')ops, in answer to your question, I drive an average of 2500 miles per year, including vacations. That means that the difference between the $3/gal I pay today and the $15/gal that you postulate is $1667 because of my terribly inefficient Jeep Wrangler with it's 60+ year old engine design and the resulting 15mpg.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')That $1600 is 2 weeks work for a $15/hr flipper.

Which is my point, the effects won't be felt equally by everyone, which is what a lot of people expect (and expected) when they say "end of oil" and the like—the big guy gets brought down to the ground and we al grovel together..

But regardless of whether you suffer, sending that $1600 to Texas or Canada means you aren't spending it at the local Outback and that is the insult to injury; the waitress there pays more to get to work too but worse since you aren't in there spending your $1,600 (that went to Venezuela), she gets laid off.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') don't see how most folks in the real world can afford a BEV. You would have to carry your own charging station and 440 volt extension cord in the trunk.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'P')ops, I don't think it's reasonable to blame the problems of people being out of work on middle class people driving cars.

[Revi]

I'm glad that it's not just me that's getting trolled by Outcast.

[ralfy]

If the effects of peak oil involve combinations of lack of income, oil and various material resources, and energy, then the effects have been in place for decades as most people earn only a few dollars a day and lack access to one or more basic needs.

If one looks at oil production per capita, then peak oil took place sometime during the late 1970s.

If one ignores all of these points and considers only factors that are part of peak oil, then it took place for various oil-producing countries in different periods in the past. For global conventional production, probably around 2005.

[PeterEV]

If you look at the 2015 Energy Outlook: A view to 2040, Exxon indicates that the peak is somewhere in the 2040 to 2050 time frame with various oil sources showing a peak near 2040. With that said, the world has to find and develop 30+ MBOD. Where this will be developed is unknown and the cost all be higher with respect to the region where the new wells will be drilled; thus gasoline prices will be higher. This is providing we can afford them. The solutions are with the alternatives such as walking, cycling, mass transit,and electric powered transportatio. Renewables will likely power is. It can be done but it is going to take a lot of invest.

Tesla shows that a world class car can be built. My PV array says that I can fuel such a car directly and indirectly from that array and it can be paid off in a reasonable amount of time without tax incentives. I'm in the SE and my calls say I can hear in the winter and have enough heat for • most • months. To retrofit my place will not be cheap. But it can be done. We've wasted a lot of money in the Middle East on military conflicts with no real positive outcome toward our energy independence.

[onlooker]

just found this graph that shows break down of uses of oil by sector. Notice how 70% is for transportation. Maybe a way to gracefully descend the energy requirement ladder is by reducing transportation in particular of personal vehicles. Of course then the question is how do people get to work. That is where the Internet can be the tool for transition. It may be that most jobs can be done on the Net, I really cannot comment on this. But if that statement is true then that could be a way to transition somewhat gracefully to a less energy intensive society. here is link to graph
http://alternativeenergy.procon.org/vie ... eID=001797

[Scrub Puller]

Yair . . . onlooker

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')It may be that most jobs can be done on the Net

[onlooker]

I think related to actual physical work by people, we would have to assign everyone to work within a relatively close distance to where they live. It would be a universal requirement.

[PeterEV]

Hi Pstarr,

I do have enough solar generation to more than meet my commuting needs. My round trip is roughly 30 miles. In an EV, that would use about 10 kwhrs. The Leaf has a Consumer Reports test rating of 3.12 miles per kwhr but that varies in real life due to the driving environment, driver skill, and air temperature. My PV array minimum monthly generation has been just a little over 300 kwhrs or enough for 30 trips monthly to work. If I drove an electric pickup truck (e.g., 2 to 3 miles per kwhr), I might have to tap into the mains for the remainder that month. My highest generation has been close to 800 kwhrs. A 2400 mile vacation trip would need all of those 800 kwhrs. It's BAU but then it is not.

My PV array cost me close to $28K, before any tax incentives, and it was commercially installed. At $4/gallon for gasoline, that is equivalent to purchasing 7,000 gallons. At 30 mpg, I would have to drive 210,000 miles to pay off the array. After that, my array is "free transportation" energy. At 10,000 miles per year, that's a payoff in 21 years. I used $4/gallon assuming that is what is needed to keep the Bakken flowing and to offset depletion for awhile. You could use $3/gallon which is equivalent to slightly over 9,000 gallons of gasoline. With a 10 mpg pickup truck driving 10k miles per year. The payoff occurs in the tenth year.

The key will be cheaper batteries with 3 to 5 times the energy density of today's battery packs. That is happening in the laboratories as I write this. When they will see their transition to commercially available is anybody's guess. There have been discoveries on how to evaluate long term performance using short term testing methods. This should bode well for fast turn around for various chemistries tested. A 3 to 5 fold increase in the batteries is like increasing the range of a Tesla from 265 miles per charge to 800 to 1300 miles on a charge.

I see solar, batteries, and EVs as being the equivalent of the aviation industry in the 1920's. We don't have yet an EV that will cross the country on one charge as would an airplane could not cross the Atlantic until 1927. An 800 mile per charge EV would be a real game changer. $35K EVs with a 200 mile range are being worked on for the 2017 model year. They might not appear until 2019...

With regard to the electrical utilities, I see them becoming more of an electrical energy redistributor/energy storage utilities. What I produce via my array, gets stored until needed. Therefore, if I drive a pickup truck 40 miles round trip in the winter, I might need more than my array can produce. This is where a local utility would burn FFs or tap into battery storage to supply the need juice.

With regards to heating, there are not enough trees in the forests to supply wood for wood burning stoves. I did a few calculations and determined that down here in the SE USA, I could heat my home for most of the year using solar heat collectors. The indication is that I would need a 600 gallon tank of water or around 700 cubic feet of fist sized rock storage to meet my needs. The rough rule of thumb is to take your heated living area and divide by 3 so if you lived in a 1500 square foot house, you would need a rock bin of 500 cubic feet. Again, this would be supplemented by heat produced via a utility source (e.g. natural gas, power plant, hydro dam generators, etc.) or put on a sweater.

When we had the Iranian Oil Embargo of the early 1980's, the Deep South turned to wood burning stoves and the air pollution was reaching dangerous levels in some neighborhoods back then. I hope we are wise enough to go solar first. The winter air was miserable.

I don't doubt that Big Oil and Coal wants us to keep consuming FFs. That's their business. They have wonderful products with bad environmental side effects. I'm trying to look beyond them to see what I need to do for me and my family. That's my business. I think solar is the way to go but it is not without its limitations.

If this graph is correct from Exxon Mobil's 2015 Energy Outlook: A View to 2040, Slide 44, we have some time but we need to use it wisely and I think we are getting there.

[PeterEV]

I had asked about the sources for the New Conventional C+C in the above graph. An additional 30 MBOD of New Conventional C+C seemed to be a very high number. I heard no responses to anything specific. I know Saudi Aramco is forecasting their peak to occur around 2042 assuming 10 MBOD. If their old wells deplete, would they not have to add new conventional? Iraq was suppose to ramp up to 12 MBOD. They are currently near 3 MBOD; that's another 10 MBOD? So it could be conceivable that this chart does have some validity and if oil patch development comes to fruition and another 10 MBOD are found somewhere in the world??? That's a lot of "and"s.

If true, this would give us some time to develop and wean our way to viable alternatives. This is if we use our time, capital, and resources wisely. Dr. Hirsch said we would need a 20 year window to transition without a liquid fuel shortfall.
(ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report )

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Scrub Puller', 'Y')air . . . onlooker

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')It may be that most jobs can be done on the Net

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'I') think related to actual physical work by people, we would have to assign everyone to work within a relatively close distance to where they live. It would be a universal requirement.