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Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby jedrider » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 13:31:21

So, our oceans are going to be full of loaded oil tankers and empty cruise ships (once passengers are allowed to disembark somewhere).
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby GHung » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 15:14:31

As of 15:10 EDT:

Losers
• Marathon Oil Corp -47.40%
• Apache Corp -45.34%
• Occidental Petroleum Corp -42.22%
• Halliburton Co -38.18%
• Devon Energy Corp -33.91%

Yikes!
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby onlooker » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 15:33:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', 'A')s of 15:10 EDT:

Losers
• Marathon Oil Corp -47.40%
• Apache Corp -45.34%
• Occidental Petroleum Corp -42.22%
• Halliburton Co -38.18%
• Devon Energy Corp -33.91%

Yikes!


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') Investor Exodus Leaves Oil Stocks In Disarray


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... array.html
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby FuelShortageComing » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 15:39:57

The world is on the highway to hell. Money is not a substitute for joule. There is no future only death.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fM1XJSlphrc
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby GHung » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 16:39:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', 'A')s of 15:10 EDT:

Losers
• Marathon Oil Corp -47.40%
• Apache Corp -45.34%
• Occidental Petroleum Corp -42.22%
• Halliburton Co -38.18%
• Devon Energy Corp -33.91%

Yikes!


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') Investor Exodus Leaves Oil Stocks In Disarray


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... array.html


Occidental and Apache stocks lost half their value today. That's not "disarray". It's more like disaster.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby onlooker » Thu 12 Mar 2020, 16:37:56

Now comes the bail out of shale/fracking
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... LqoVFibbCY
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby onlooker » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 08:49:56

Oil is nosediving down to $24 per barrel
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby Pops » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 14:50:46

About the unemployment rate.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby onlooker » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 15:01:23

It seems Demand falling is outpacing oil excesses or glut. hm mm
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby Tanada » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 15:28:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '[')b]Oil is nosediving down to $24 per barrel


Yawn. It could go to $12/bbl for a few weeks but soon structural demands will reignite prices just like they did in 2016.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby Pops » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 15:32:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'I')t seems Demand falling is outpacing oil excesses or glut. hm mm

So you think an overnight 20% or 30% global unemployment rate is somehow affecting the oil markets?
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby GHung » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 17:41:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '[')b]Oil is nosediving down to $24 per barrel


Yawn. It could go to $12/bbl for a few weeks but soon structural demands will reignite prices just like they did in 2016.


Oil has dropped 56% in a month. That's some serious demand destruction. You think we'll see that turn around in a few weeks??

I don't recall a global pandemic in 2016. Maybe you can refresh my memory on that.
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby rockdoc123 » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 18:52:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il has dropped 56% in a month. That's some serious demand destruction.


been out of the news flow this past week? Saudi Arabia opened the taps effectively by decreasing their price of deliveries substantially and then announcing they were increasing both production and new spare capacity immediately. UAE followed suit with a comment...if OPEC has fallen apart we might as well produce at the highest rate we can as well. There was already a sense of demand destruction from Covid but it is the sudden widening of the gap that drove the price down so fast and continues to do so. Until prices are low enough for long enough and companies in the US either go out of business or shut-in operations indefinitely there will remain this massive over supply. Even if Covid was solved next week miraculously and perceived demand took off again the oversupply is anticipated to clog the market for months to come and would not go away until such time as SA and Russia worked out some form of deal.
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby GHung » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 19:22:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il has dropped 56% in a month. That's some serious demand destruction.


been out of the news flow this past week? Saudi Arabia opened the taps effectively by decreasing their price of deliveries substantially and then announcing they were increasing both production and new spare capacity immediately. UAE followed suit with a comment...if OPEC has fallen apart we might as well produce at the highest rate we can as well. There was already a sense of demand destruction from Covid but it is the sudden widening of the gap that drove the price down so fast and continues to do so. Until prices are low enough for long enough and companies in the US either go out of business or shut-in operations indefinitely there will remain this massive over supply. Even if Covid was solved next week miraculously and perceived demand took off again the oversupply is anticipated to clog the market for months to come and would not go away until such time as SA and Russia worked out some form of deal.


Been on top of these things for weeks rocspin. I didn't claim that all of the drop in oil prices we've seen in the last month was entirely due to this pandemic (did I ?). My point is that, due to current demand destruction, prices are not likely to rebound "in the next few weeks" as Tanada seems to hope.
Worry not, though. I got used to oil patch hubris long ago.
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby rockdoc123 » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 23:41:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y point is that, due to current demand destruction, prices are not likely to rebound "in the next few weeks" as Tanada seems to hope.


nobody can predict how long it will take but it could be rapid if SA and Russia came to a deal and there was a sense in the market that the virus was under control and a point in the near future could be seen where the planes are all flying again. As long as it is quick enough that there isn't substantive job loss or businesses that consume fuel going under demand should bounce back pretty quickly to where it was. Outside of the airline use of fuel the demand projection is just that a projection which will change as the situation changes.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orry not, though. I got used to oil patch hubris long ago.


that would be the same "hubris" that saw the industry survive through very low oil prices in 2014 - 2016 and set themselves up to grow to be the largest producer in the world? :roll:

your confusing "hubris" with confidence and know how.
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby GHung » Thu 19 Mar 2020, 08:29:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', ' ')......

your confusing "hubris" with confidence and know how.


Near-zero borrowing rates and easy money, along with tax-cut stimulated demand can build a lot of 'confidence',, eh? I'm not knocking oil industry industriousness; just keeping things in context. Meanwhile, looks like the party is over on many fronts.
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby rockdoc123 » Thu 19 Mar 2020, 11:47:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ear-zero borrowing rates and easy money, along with tax-cut stimulated demand can build a lot of 'confidence',, eh? I'm not knocking oil industry industriousness; just keeping things in context. Meanwhile, looks like the party is over on many fronts.


those same conditions existed for each and every industry out there. How did that work out for say all those solar panel manufacturers?

the fact of the matter is the oil industry is very resilient. I worked through numerous downturns and layoffs in the industry and the industry adapted and came back from each and every one. The underlying factor is the world needs oil, it cannot currently be replaced with anything else in the time frame needed. The Saudis will continue to turn the taps on or turn the taps off from time to time, it seems to be the fact when you get a new King or the old King decides to fire his energy minister because he thinks he knows more that the same mistakes are made time and time again. I was at a conference many, many years ago when Sheik Yamani was speaking to a very large audience of oil executives right at the start of the oil crisis. He had armed guards surrounding him and everyone was frisked coming into the room as there was considerable animosity towards him and the Kingdom. That ploy blew up in their face as they lost considerable market share over the next few years. And in 2014 the Saudis flooded the market thinking they could hold out with low prices longer than the US unconventional players with the idea of increasing their market share but they underestimated the North American oil and gas industry who adapted, streamlined and found a way to work within the low price environment. Now we see SA thinking that they can use the one-two punch of Covid demand decrease as a consequence of economic entrenchment along with increased supplies. I guess we will see who blinks first but you can already see North American companies retrenching and adjusting to a new reality. Many will merge or get bought out and many will be a lot smaller in the future but some will emerge in an excellent position to grow when SA and Russia realize they are shooting themselves in the foot. I suspect once the worst of global Covid is past cooler heads will prevail.
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 19 Mar 2020, 15:55:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FuelShortageComing', 'T')he world is on the highway to hell. Money is not a substitute for joule. There is no future only death.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fM1XJSlphrc

Yes of course. Ignore anything but messages of doom. Including any and all data which interferes with your message. That's worked SO WELL for the past 50 years, re fast crash doomerism. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 19 Mar 2020, 15:59:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '[')b]Oil is nosediving down to $24 per barrel

Or, WTI jumped up today by nearly 25 percent to over $25 a barrel (closing price).

More than the big fall yestiddy. Funny how much difference a day can bring in volatile markets. :roll:

But if you're reporting all doom, all the time, only report on down days. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Predicted Oil Collapse Underway...

Postby evilgenius » Fri 20 Mar 2020, 15:46:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y point is that, due to current demand destruction, prices are not likely to rebound "in the next few weeks" as Tanada seems to hope.


nobody can predict how long it will take but it could be rapid if SA and Russia came to a deal and there was a sense in the market that the virus was under control and a point in the near future could be seen where the planes are all flying again. As long as it is quick enough that there isn't substantive job loss or businesses that consume fuel going under demand should bounce back pretty quickly to where it was. Outside of the airline use of fuel the demand projection is just that a projection which will change as the situation changes.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orry not, though. I got used to oil patch hubris long ago.


that would be the same "hubris" that saw the industry survive through very low oil prices in 2014 - 2016 and set themselves up to grow to be the largest producer in the world? :roll:

your confusing "hubris" with confidence and know how.

It's probably not the same "hubris" that assumes that just about any person without three months savings can hold up without some sort of help, or with half the help some richer person is slated for. If there is not a US stimulus package that addresses the reality of American life over the insisted upon perception of it, then we are not going to see higher oil prices any time too soon in the wake of the pandemic.
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