[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
It aint gonna happen that way.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
It aint gonna happen that way.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'I')t's a way to constantly shift off onto the future this mythological moment when the house of cards will fall.

It aint gonna happen that way.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')But I agree, the fantasy of war in the streets is just as much of a danger to personal preparation as unrealistic optimism. They both prevent many people from preparing for the much more likely scenario of Personal Financial Armageddon.

For people like Bro out in CA who have lost the whole ball o wax because they can't find an income, whether this is a lost decade or they are just another in a long line of "adjustments" to a new normal is a moot point, for them TS-HAS-HTF.

http://www.abiworld.org/bkstats/numeric.html

[Newfie]

Maybe we should merge this with the "Will there be a Movement?" thread.

It is funny but I hear, and have been hearing for the past few years, at least two very different scenarios of what life in the US is like.

For some times are very difficult, loss of job, house, income. Factories and shops closing. Stores with diminished stock.

Yet, from my personal experience, and that of those around me, things are pretty "normal." I don't really know anyone who as lost their job or anyone who has lost a house. My industry is booming due to the Bama Bucks and because it takes a couple of three years for appropriations to get through the mill to get to me.

I'm note sure what this means or what it portends for the future. My fear/worry/concern/guess is that there is a large hunk of American middle class that are in pretty similar circumstances to myself. But that we are being artificially held up by government deficit spending. TPTB are hoping that, by dumping so much cash, they can restart the old economic engine, that the middle class will start spending again.

If it works, it will likely be a relatively short term fix, say on the order of 5 to 15 years before something else goes kaput in the system. If it does not work then this buoyant middle class will itself start slipping into the grips of depression. The velocity of that slide is anyone's guess. But here is something to think about.

One of the few things that became clear to me thorough the past 2 ears is that much of what holds our system together is simply trust, trust that our system has always worked this way and will return to normal soon. I think that this is akin to the "normalcy" thing Pops mentioned. So the system stay afloat because we take measures to keep it afloat, and because we adjust our expectations. In "Non Zero Sum" Robert Wright talked about how important it is to us to be able to trust one another. It is a huge social no-no to go about lying and ripping people off. To some extent we don't want to think that someone is doing evil because then we would be forced to take action.

However a time comes when you (the populace in general) just can't ignore it anymore and they take to the streets with their pitchforks. I think that point depends upon the depth of harm that we have experienced but also on the rate of change. If we have time to adapt then we can be moved great distances. If the change comes too suddenly we can't adapt and may well rebel.

I didn't vote for Obama for just this reason. His message of HOPE jacked up peoples expectations at a time when things are likely to get worse, not better. By raising expectations he may have inadvertently increased the rate of change, and thus the likely hood of sever social unrest. I kinda like the guy and wish him all the best in the world. And pray that my long record of poor future telling continues.