[the48thronin]

novel idea all ballots have name of office and space for voter to write in his choice... no candidates names...

[Forney2008]

Boy oh Boy, wow I must say, Karl Denninger has really lashed out against Kunstler for thinking he is a Limousine Liberal and for thinking that all environmentalists are hypocrites who drive monster SUV's. But here is his latest post. He also thinks we can obtain Thorium via Coal (global warming be damned...oh that's right global warming is a scam according to him) and all our problems are solved. I hate to say Cornucopian but wow.

http://market-ticker.org/archives/2385- ... Bigot.html

[firestarter]

The man is a certified lunatic. Nate Hagens would obliterate his nonsense in a heartbeat. Complete unadulterated drivel.

[Forney2008]

And he thinks people will pay for his advice?? Seriously. There are so many blogs out there concerning economic and political news/issues. What makes his site so special? It seems like there are much less posters on that site ever since it became donation only for many of its previously free features. Why would one even donate to a site where you can still get banned for something so trivial that could be interpreted the wrong way. Don't get me wrong, he has been pretty much right on concerning the housing bubble, and the overall credit bubble and I have learned some different perspectives concerning economics, but gee wiz, that site has become an echo chamber of similar minded viewpoints. I figured I'd post this here because many people have mentioned him before concerning economics events and some posters on this site even were members of Tickerforum before being banned. I believe Eli is still a member of Tickerforum who also is on this site. It seems my biggest pet peeve concerning KD's viewpoints are his incorrect belief that if only the environmentalist types would let us drill everywhere and strip mine everything, we would not ever have any issues about obtaining our energy needs.

[Forney2008]

Karl is now arguing over there about EROEI saying it is a scam cooked up by Peak Oil people to prove a false point. It is confusing me greatly. Does anyone have any info on EROEI?? I have heard mentioned several times on this forum that oil is the highest in this regard, correct?

[emersonbiggins]

I've read this latest thread. It seems that he's conflating the concept of EROEI with the global preference for highly portable fuels, and the tradeoff in efficiency that invariably accompanies this convenience. The concept seems simple enough to me: if it takes more energy to get out than you get from the resource extraction itself, you might as well burn the "seed corn," as it were.

I'll defer to Denninger on many things, but I don't expect him to be an authority on everything. He might expect it, though. But, that's another thread.

[Forney2008]

Oh I hear you on that. I am surprised he actually hasn't banned anyone yet on the site recently for discussing this concept. I know from the postings there that there are several posters at TF who see the light concerning peak oil and see it as a legitimate issue facing this country.

[hillsidedigger]

I wonder if he realizes that the percent of people in thee world who have ready access to electricity and liquid fuel has grown from zero a little over 100 years ago to only 20 or so% of the world now.

The rest will never have it and the percent of those that do will decline from now on back to near zero.

[Roy]

I've seen a poster over there named Jotapay who either still does or used to post here frequently. He gets the ideas of PO across to those day traders in a subtle and effective way. Without getting banned. He's pretty good at plying the waters there.

Regarding Denninger, I always like his financial analysis. He breaks down complex issues, and I like his energy and his efforts toward "Stop the Looting and Start Prosecuting".

But his attempts to delve into Peak Oil are making him look bad. Several members there posted in the comments thread "This is your worst ticker ever". That was spot on. So at least others there are seeing a little of his cognitive dissonance starting to show.

He is flat out wrong about PO and about EROEI IMO. But posting anything he doesn't agree with can get you banned in a hurry there. It reminds me of conversations I've had with people about limits, and peak oil specifically. "Oh that's crazy", "we'll never run out", "they are deliberately leaving massive oil reserves in the US for after the exporting countries run out", "they will think of something", "hydrogen", "envirowhackos are preventing us from accessing our massive reserves and its their fault gas is $X/gallon", "the oil companies are gouging us, there is no problem with supplies", "God will take care of it". Those are just some of the things said to me. All of those statements can be easily debunked (except for the supernatural one). That is, if people are willing to set aside their pre-conceived notions and allow new information to enter their minds.

Evidently that's pretty difficult for lots of folks, including Denninger.

His two recent energy tickers are BILGE, to use his term.

[firestarter]

All those here who think Denninger's especially bright need to reconsider before you waste anymore time at that awful forum of his. Most of the insightful people there(especially talented traders) have left to form another forum named Sucker Forum, which more or less was started as an alternative and parody to the ridiculousness that is Denninger. Whether the subject regards gold, the markets, the environment, peak oil, Israel, actions the government will take, and whatever else you can think of, Denninger is at the forefront of being wrong. He's a pathetically inept poser suffering from a severe case of delusions of grandeur. Save yourselves and stay away from that nut case. You'll be a lot healthier and smarter taking that path.

[Forney2008]

Also according to KD, the government stimulus being spent was not supposed to work but apparently it has at least artificially kept the markets up and stabilized the unemployment situation. ( in all fairness, I agree that things will more than likely head south again soon as we cannot maintain the ever growing debt burden, plus with the whole Europe situation).

[Forney2008]

BTW, I checked out suckerforum.info and it is awesome! Their motto is great, "talk freely-no banning your azz here"!!

[Revi]

Denninger has a good understanding of economics, but that doesn't mean that he has a grasp of energy issues. There isn't unlimited coal out there. Anthracite is practically gone, and the bituminous that there is left is in harder and harder places. It requires lots of oil to get. Strip mining huge seams of coal may have been possible because we had all that cheap oil.

His argument is that Americans won't stand for nature's limits.

We'll find the energy to continue our lifestyles even if it destroys the environment.

We may not be able to get enough energy even if we wreck the place.

Unfortunately I think that most of us are subject to limits after all.

Even if we're Americans.

[gnm]

His tirades against peak oil etc are weak, and too me it looks as if hes still in the anger or possibly the bargaining phase of PO/H2O/ETC and desperate to see BAU continue forever - all the while raging about unsustainable debt etc. I think hes got a fairly good grasp of the economic issues we face, but refuses to see the reality of the resource issues.

-G

[Forney2008]

Yeah, he believes that if gas got to $9 per gallon, people would be so desperate that they would beg the oil companies to strip, mine, and pillage the Earth just to sustain the unsustainable, happy-motoring, McMansion lifestyle. Don't get me wrong, I hope we do find an alternative, clean, safe energy source that can provide us with the fuel we need to live comfortable lives, It just seems that there are limits to how far we can go. An example of limits being the over-population of humans and the limited amount of resources that eventually will cause us to make tough choices.

[efarmer]

I read his stuff and think he is bright on finance but I don't pay anywhere to get scared except the doctor, roller coasters, and when my kid drives my car. I do hear the angst and anger I hear many times when I talk to investors and financial people.

I understand when you live by investment and the market that you can forget they were created to operate in a world where price overcomes shortage every time via global supply patterns shifting after lucrative lags between supply and demand, and the implied expectation that repairing the market in the form of regulation, restoration of ethics, etc. can somehow perform the reverse ju jitsu and put the world right again.

All you need to believe is that growth is unlimited and that a high enough price can solve any resource shortage with supply or alternatives, and if not, get off the forum until you get your mind right.
Sometimes I think they forget they are moving symbolic forms of value around that are based on confidence from past experience. I should have asked about this before I got thrown out.

[firestarter]

Go to Sucker Forum, and read those very SUCCESSFUL traders he banned--because they were bullish the past year. You'll then realize he isn't as bright on things economic as you think.

[zeke]

There will be a place for people like Denninger for quite some time to come.

He panders to the unfillable need of many to be told that what they do and want is A-OK. He ices the cake by villifying anybody who disagrees, by saying that THEY are wrong, evil, come to harsh the buzz, un-American, etc.

So, that much is obvious and most have weighed in on Denninger: he's a 3rd-rate hot dog.

But what is not clear among posters here are Denninger's chops as an economic analyst.

IMHO, and you can flame me to Pluto and back, but, to not grasp the importance of petroleum is to not grasp the entire Oil Age, including all events and situations happening therein.

it's like bitching that you can fall off a bike and hurt yourself, yet not know about gravity.

Nothing that has happened in the oil age has happened independent OF oil.

Well, ok..maybe if you're a New Guinea bush man, or a green frog.

He's kinda right about some things in the same way that a broken clock is "right" 2 times a day.

He seems to be in the group who think that you can be an island if you plan now and pay off all your debts. It's laughable on its face even to entertain that concept.

WTSHTF, the only safe place will be on Jupiter, no matter how many canned tomatoes you've put up or gold coins you have buried near the septic tank.

it's going to be a world of shit for most people, and it is not clear at this moment how things will shake out.

Those who own their home today might find it burned to the ground tomorrow.

Then, where will all your financial savvy be?

The human tendency is to make rational that which is not rational. But that itself is not rational, especially in this case. It's another form of hubris...

Like bill murray in Groundhog Day, saying "I make the weather!!"

I do read denninger's feed..skim it, really, just to see what that group is thinking. it's a good chuckle.

zeke

[Jotapay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roy', 'I')'ve seen a poster over there named Jotapay who either still does or used to post here frequently. He gets the ideas of PO across to those day traders in a subtle and effective way. Without getting banned. He's pretty good at plying the waters there.

But posting anything he doesn't agree with can get you banned in a hurry there.

[Jotapay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', 'A')ll those here who think Denninger's especially bright need to reconsider before you waste anymore time at that awful forum of his. Most of the insightful people there(especially talented traders) have left to form another forum named Sucker Forum....