The growth economy is pointed to by many as the basis of all economic evil, boom inevitably followed by bust amid the never-ending quest for "more".
A better match with the physical constraints of a limited planet is the Steady-state economy say it's proponents. From the link:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') steady state economy, therefore, aims for stable or mildly fluctuating levels in population and consumption of energy and materials. Birth rates equal death rates, and saving/investment equals depreciation.
PeakOil is You
Lost Decade or New Normal
Lost Decade or New Normal
by Pops » Mon 07 Jun 2010, 17:57:11
The rate of rise in the population is slowing, forecasters think it may take up to 15 years now to add a billion people, not a steady state by any means but the time of doubling had been halving - not good.
But more important is what seem to be increasing creaks from the old model. Primary evidence of course is peak <everything> and the current state of economies around the world. The US had a bad decade, Japan has been having a bad generation. Chindia may be ascendant but could it be they are late to the party and the keg is already floating?
Here's Krugman today and last month about the future:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut the truth is that policy makers aren’t doing too much; they’re doing too little. Recent data don’t suggest that America is heading for a Greece-style collapse of investor confidence. Instead, they suggest that we may be heading for a Japan-style lost decade, trapped in a prolonged era of high unemployment and slow growth.
And here is Ezra Klein of the Washington Post on the recent past:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he past decade was the worst for the U.S. economy in modern times, a sharp reversal from a long period of prosperity that is leading economists and policymakers to fundamentally rethink the underpinnings of the nation's growth.
And finally, from the Reason Foundation (whoever they are
):$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he current economic uncertainty in the United States, and the government’s response to it, is eerily similar to that of Japan’s “Lost Decade” according to a new Reason Foundation report.The study finds that Japan’s housing prices rose by 51 percent and commercial real estate values rose 80 percent between 1985 and 1991. In the U.S., commercial real estate and housing prices both skyrocketed 90 percent from 2000 to 2006.
The Nikkei, Japan's stock index, fell from 38,975 in 1989 to just 18,934 by the end of 1999. During the continuing economic malaise, it dropped even further to 7,603 in 2003. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 14,115 in October 2007. On February 19, 2009, the Dow closed at 7,465, its lowest finish since 2002.
President Barack Obama recently signed a $787 stimulus package that includes over $60 billion for infrastructure and transportation projects. Japan passed 10 stimulus packages in the 1990s that would equal $1.4 trillion in today’s dollars. From 1992 to 1999, Japan spent over $500 billion (in today’s dollars) on public works projects. Despite this infrastructure spending, Japan’s unemployment rate more than doubled and the economy remained stagnant.
So the question is this, Is there a possibility we are slipping - or have slipped, toward a new normal of zero growth and are all waiting in vain for the good times to roll once again?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Pops - Elite
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good one !
