Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Is hiring people to count each other really recovery?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is hiring people to count each other really recovery?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 05 Jun 2010, 20:29:22

It takes 1,200,000 people in 2010 under Obama to do the same job that 400,000 people did in 2000 under Clinton?

No wonder Clinton was able to balance the budget while Obama is producing the largest deficits in history! :roll:
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama
-----------------------------------------------------------
Keep running between the raindrops.
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26765
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Is hiring people to count each other really recovery?

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 05 Jun 2010, 22:26:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'A')nd while constitutionally required, some people think the census is being used to inflate the jobs numbers -- hiring too many people, firing and hiring them over and over, etc. If that's true, it's like a pseudo-stimulus.

You missed my explanation above. If someone is hired and fired five times over the course of a month, that makes no difference to the BLS. All they do is ask the census (and everyone else they survey) what their employee head count is during the week they are surveyed. If someone is on the payrolls of the Census Bureau when they are surveyed, they are counted. If they're not, they aren't counted.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: Is hiring people to count each other really recovery?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 06 Jun 2010, 01:19:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', ' ')Remember, we need something like 220k added per month just to keep up with population increase, and that wouldn't even make a dent in the millions currently unemployed.


Well, most economists say 150,000. And the President says:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;I think we'll be adding jobs, but you need 150,000 additional jobs each month just to keep pace with a growing population," the president said. "So if we're only adding 50,000 jobs, that's a great reversal from losing 700,000 jobs [a month] early this year -- but, you know, it means that we've still got a ways to go."


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')o get the unemployed back to work, we'd have see around 450k sustained private sector jobs added, month after month for years.


To get back to a 5% unemployment rate, we would have to create 15 million jobs. At 450,000/month, about 3 1/2 years. If you take the best year in the last ten (2006), you get an average monthly growth of 232,000.

A bit short.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Re: Is hiring people to count each other really recovery?

Unread postby the48thronin » Sun 06 Jun 2010, 03:07:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'W')here I'm working I certainly have not seen any one just sitting around. The computer system up until a few days ago has been very touchy and crash prone. As a result we are working of a large back log of NRFU (Non Response Follow UP) forms prepared by the counters.

My rough guesstimate is it costs about $50 to $70 extra to go out and get the info from every Household that did not bother to send in their original mailings. With a 70 percent response rate that adds up to well over a billion wasted tax dollars just become some idiot was to lazy to fill out his census form. Sometimes the counters end up going out six times just to get one count.

Bottom line, you are paying more taxes because others are lazy.

Or incompetent.

In one county the response rate might be 1 or 2 percent because no one else received a census form... ( yes almost no one in the county reports having received one in the mail).. This was told to me this morning by a guy who decided to go ask his county clerk why he had never received one and the clerk mentioned the total lack of anyone getting one.

As a side note in that county in one community, almost 1/4 of the houses are abandoned. The ordinances in that county require that the laws be mowed etc, so the average abandoned house simply looks like no one is home.... Will after 6 visits the census taker simply make up something on most of those houses? That county clerk when asked said that no one had been into their office to see which of those houses were officially empty as known to that county tax assessor so how did the census folks know which ones were not vacation houses but simply abandoned by the previous owners?

A discussion of the possibility that the census was being used to fake the demographical composition of that county for political redistricting and to hide the huge number of "undocumented" workers living in some areas of the county ensued.... interesting listening but who knows... The residents of the local housing project received forms, the residents of the private homes did not... wonder why?
Malthusian Riders Member!

Courtesy and Courage Sincerity and Self-control Honor and Loyalty a Code to Live By!
What do the miners do when the canary dies? EVACUATE THE MINE not argue about the color of it's feathers or buy a parrot instead.

Where is my pitchfork and torch? I need them for a visit to the castle!
User avatar
the48thronin
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 871
Joined: Fri 30 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: On the highway, or the water somewhere!
Top

Re: Is hiring people to count each other really recovery?

Unread postby careinke » Sun 06 Jun 2010, 03:29:21

They had some serious computer problems. Two years ago they had to abandon the system they were planning to use. A whole new system had to be built in less than two years. I can tell you it is not very polished. Reports generate incorrectly, so a lot of manual reporting takes place. Inputing data could be greatly streamlined, but they just flat ran out of time. LOTS of effort is going into ensuring the data is accurate.

I actually received two census forms in the mail. I mailed my first one back right away and got a second one about two days later. A lot of my neighbors also got two forms. Which shows that something was weird about the mailings.
Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
User avatar
careinke
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 5047
Joined: Mon 01 Jan 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Pacific Northwest

Re: Is hiring people to count each other really recovery?

Unread postby IslandCrow » Sun 06 Jun 2010, 06:21:40

All this sounds like it would be a good idea and save money to have id-cards

....Now running for a secure hid out from all the libertarians [smilie=new_bluegrab.gif]
We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
User avatar
IslandCrow
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1272
Joined: Mon 12 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Finland

Re: Is hiring people to count each other really recovery?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 06 Jun 2010, 11:03:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattS', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')To get back to a 5% unemployment rate, we would have to create 15 million jobs. At 450,000/month, about 3 1/2 years. If you take the best year in the last ten (2006), you get an average monthly growth of 232,000.

A bit short.


Only if you assume that a 5% unemployment rate is somehow a requirement.


Matters not if it is or isn't. The math is the same to get there.

5 to 5 1/2% is what most economists refer to as "full employment" and it is where we were prior to this recession.

The whole point is that a high unemployment rate is going to be with us for a long time, maybe forever.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: Is hiring people to count each other really recovery?

Unread postby Questionmark » Sun 06 Jun 2010, 12:19:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'I')t takes 1,200,000 people in 2010 under Obama to do the same job that 400,000 people did in 2000 under Clinton?

No wonder Clinton was able to balance the budget while Obama is producing the largest deficits in history! :roll:


The 2000 census was a massive failure. The response rate ten years ago for the area that I live in was something like 30%.
Questionmark
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 116
Joined: Tue 01 Dec 2009, 15:21:18
Top

Re: Is hiring people to count each other really recovery?

Unread postby Questionmark » Sun 06 Jun 2010, 12:26:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'I') actually received two census forms in the mail. I mailed my first one back right away and got a second one about two days later. A lot of my neighbors also got two forms. Which shows that something was weird about the mailings.


That was on purpose. They sent two forms to every household in order to encourage more people to respond.
Questionmark
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 116
Joined: Tue 01 Dec 2009, 15:21:18
Top

Previous

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 28 guests

cron