[copious.abundance]

No, there was no long, slow decline prior to 1973. Here are the yearly figures. The EIA did not track monthly numbers until 1973.


Source

[eastbay]

That's a nice example of a long term undulating plateau. It's going to be tough to burn more NG if we ain't finding any more.... as the chart tends to show.

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'I')t's going to be tough to burn more NG if we ain't finding any more....

[focusonz]

The below graphs shows basically what happened and what will happen if the US energy consumption profile does not change. But you know we are at Peak oil.



If the entire 244 million US automobile fleet were converted to run on Made in America natural gas, while converting natural gas and electric resistive furnaces to ground source heat pumps while new motor cars were predominately plug in EV's or hybrids the US would completely wipe out its debt, have a trade surplus, and be at 96% employment rate.

All of this can be done in 3 to 5 years.without major investments in distribution infrastructure and within the budgets of the typical American middle class family.

If anyone is interested, I can substantiate these claims in detail. Express an interest by posting to this thread and I will post another installment.

[focusonz]

Well 23 Luddites found nothing to destroy in post #1. Maybe either they or I lack passion. I know, I have no shortage of passion.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Desert solar farms can be as cheap as coal by 2025
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/may/17/us-desert-solar-iea
The United States could position itself as the global leader in producing utility-scale solar power from its vast deserts, with immediate and appropriate government support, a new report from the International Energy Agency says.
http://peakoil.com/forums/desert-solar-farms-can-be-as-cheap-as-coal-by-2025-t58577.html

[focusonz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', '
')Effect of loss of Deep Horizon on future production?
http://peakoil.com/forums/post995549.html#p995549
The title says it all...
The World Can't Live Without Deepwater Oil
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') common misunderstanding of Peak Oil is that its proponents are claiming that "we're running out of oil." More accurately, Peak Oil foresees a point of maximum production, and the possibility that demand for oil will greatly exceed the available supply. In that scenario, the price of oil would rise, perhaps significantly.

[Pops]

What kind of argument do you want? You are obviously spoiling for a fight.

But first you need to explain to the good folks what you and zero energy gambit are selling and what is your interest, let's be honest. BTW, who came up with "gambit" anyway, really poor choice. If this is this a mainly a partisan political operation to show that your party can say more than no, I guess you are doing OK, on the other hand, if it is really about our energy future you probably should forego the spin.

And what's the deal with oil production going to zero in '15 on your opening chart? Spend a little time courting us Luddites - no one else is going to listen or you wouldn't be here, right?

Personally, I think Picken's plan along with nukes is a good first move - but it ain't gonna happen in 3 years, get over that unless you forsee some socialist style government funded mandate which you obviously detest. If Pickens couldn't get a loan on it, how do you expect me to refit my car or buy a new EV or change over my heat source.

Of course you are pushing a tax credit and a lot more, I didn't read the whole thing but you are talking mandates, rebates, credits and something about dead-beat dads too. I'm not sure how excited the party-goers are going to be about all that government intrusion - Drill Baby Drill and all that.

OK, here's an argument, lets say we switch over everything to gas in 3 years all on the government's credit card (which of course is a fantasy but lets go with it anyway) how long do you think US gas reserves will last? And try to find an unbiased source, please.

[Gerben]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('focusonz', 'C')ar manufactures have explored this niche market many times over the years. The problem was and still remains distribution of NG for the NGV's. There are a couple of regions where NGV's have a market, Utah for example which has little gasoline pipeline or oil refining capacity but lots of NG. But new NGV's will fail to make any inroads into the market unless the distribution problem is solved. And projects to increase NG pipeline capacity is DOA.

[focusonz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'W')hat kind of argument do you want? You are obviously spoiling for a fight.

But first you need to explain to the good folks what you and zero energy gambit are selling and what is your interest, let's be honest. BTW, who came up with "gambit" anyway, really poor choice. If this is this a mainly a partisan political operation to show that your party can say more than no, I guess you are doing OK, on the other hand, if it is really about our energy future you probably should forego the spin.

And what's the deal with oil production going to zero in '15 on your opening chart? Spend a little time courting us Luddites - no one else is going to listen or you wouldn't be here, right?

Personally, I think Picken's plan along with nukes is a good first move - but it ain't gonna happen in 3 years, get over that unless you forsee some socialist style government funded mandate which you obviously detest. If Pickens couldn't get a loan on it, how do you expect me to refit my car or buy a new EV or change over my heat source.

Of course you are pushing a tax credit and a lot more, I didn't read the whole thing but you are talking mandates, rebates, credits and something about dead-beat dads too. I'm not sure how excited the party-goers are going to be about all that government intrusion - Drill Baby Drill and all that.

OK, here's an argument, lets say we switch over everything to gas in 3 years all on the government's credit card (which of course is a fantasy but lets go with it anyway) how long do you think US gas reserves will last? And try to find an unbiased source, please.

[Pops]

That's quite a post! I don't quite get the graphs and the 28 year old thing but I'm like 50, so that's to be expected I guess.

I just had time to skim but didn't see how long you figure gas will last if we switched everything over today.

I didn't see where you sourced your reserve estimates.

I know there has been a lot of gas hype latley, BP's '09 review said the US has about 10 years supply of gas at current gas consumption?

[focusonz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', 'Y')ou are right that the distribution of CNG currently is a bottleneck. But pipelines don't cause the problem.

[focusonz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')hat's quite a post! I don't quite get the graphs and the 28 year old thing but I'm like 50, so that's to be expected I guess.
I just had time to skim but didn't see how long you figure gas will last if we switched everything over today.
I didn't see where you sourced your reserve estimates.
I know there has been a lot of gas hype latley, BP's '09 review said the US has about 10 years supply of gas at current gas consumption?

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('focusonz', '[')b]Oh I am starting to get it. This forum is not about "Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion" but "Hastening Hydrocarbon Depletion" .

[focusonz]

Wrong, Progressives abolished textile import tariffs to the demise of the US textile industry and loss of 100's thousands of US jobs. (marxism)

Wrong, Overbuilding the housing market led to the 2006 "shelter bubble" and was the ground work for a progressive takeover. (marxism)

Wrong, 50 thousand American men died in Vietnam in Johnson "Great Society" (marxism)

And the latest atrocity
A foreign corp "Beyond Petrolium" conspired with Obama's MMS to bring on the Gulf oil disaster.

It isn't funny that
Progressive marxists have been hell bent on destroying America for a hundred years

Well Never forget, Remember in November!
Today, You are still the Commanders and Chiefs

Only the true American conservatives have reduced taxes and US debt and created abundance of FOOD, CLOTHING, SHELTER, ENERGY for every US citizens.
These times were called the "roaring 20's", "the post war boom","the Contract with American"

[focusonz]

The problem is not Peak oil

The real problem is Peak Electricity.



The graph shows that additions of electrical generating capacity has fallen behind the projected demand. This is all a result of marxist takeover to create yet another crisis.

Expect Brownouts.
People die without electricity.

[focusonz]

The below graph clearly shows what occurred to cause the reduction of oil imports period 1980 to 1985. It was the mass conversion of fuel oil furnaces to natural gas furnaces and the conversion of gasoline vehicles to propane. Both Energy sources were Made in the USA then and still are to this day.



WELL OUR NATURE IS TO PLAN FOR WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST!

Well we know the problems so any plan has to have a succinct stated goal.

THE GOAL OF THE PLAN – Obtain sustainable energy sources to support desired life style of the entire world population at the predicted population level at the time of obtaining. The desired lifestyle lies somewhere between abject poverty and US middle class affluence. Let us set the goal at US middle class affluence for the entire world population.

Well any plan to solve problems of high complexity such as “rank shortage” of OIL and raising the lifestyle of the entire world population must consist of a phased implementation. The problem must be broken down into simple parts. And those problem parts are categorized according to required time frame for solution. Then the problem space now on a timeline is inspected for problems which might have common solutions.

Having performed the problem analysis then a basic plan outline emerges:

THE PLAN OUTLINE
1. Restore the world economy in such a fashion so the unemployed are part of the solution.
2. Redistribute the existing energy resources so that more of the world population approaches the US middle class affluence but at the same time having no effect on the US middle class affluence.
3. Apply existing energy resources to activities that reduce consumption rates and to develop sustainable energy sources. Do not or at the least avoid the Application of existing energy resources that are not needed when the reduced consumption rate and sustainable energy source(s) are obtained.
4. Devise a stratagem which motivates the world population to embrace and act upon the plan of their own free will so that they may help themselves.
5. Devise a stratagem which motivates the world population to limit their proclivities toward procreation of their own free will so that they may help themselves.
6. Devise a stratagem if 1 through 5 cannot be achieved - FAILURE IS NOT AN OPTION
7. NOTE: A carbon trading scheme is not conducive to success of the plan as the administration costs are not available to create real benefits and taking capital away from the US where most of the energy consumption problem lies will severely hinder the US solving its part of the problem and there exist an alternative to a carbon trading cap and tax scheme.

THE PLAN TIMELINE
1. 1.5 years (2012) – “rank shortage” of OIL bringing on free market price escalation
2. 5 years (2015) – US oil consumption must be 50% of 2010 US consumption
3. 5 years (2015) – 1.5 billion metric ton reduction in CO2 emissions
4. 15 years (2025) – 6 billion metric ton reduction in CO2 emissions
5. 20 years (2030) – World Oil consumption must at 50% of 2010 consumption
6. 20 years (2030) – World fresh water consumption for food must be at 50% of 2010 consumption


The US NG/PROPANE/E85 Vehicle and GSHP Energy Policy and Economic Recovery Plan

NEAR TERM now till 2015,
Oil Price pressure from high demand motivates US population to alter energy consumption
1. Replace electric resistive and natural gas heating from 50 million apartments and 60 million single family residences in the US with 900% solar thermal assisted Ground source heat pumps (GSHP) . Electric consumption will be reduced by upwards of 50% and NG heating for homes will be eliminated.
2. The 5 year CO2 reduction targets are met and exceeded and there is excess electrical service needed for the US middle class affluence life style.
3. Convert existing cars to NG/PROPANE/E85 reduces US oil consumption by 50% and the US importation of oil falls to zero. So coming off natural gas for our homes we can come up on NG for cars and the NG pipeline infrastructure will be sufficient without additions.
4. The elimination of US oil imports makes that oil available to world markets increasing affluence.
5. An increased affluence is usually associated with lowered birth rates in a population.
6. NOTE: This near term phase is absolutely necessary as it will otherwise require 14 years to replace the 244 million gasoline vehicles with new electric hybrids at the normal replacement rate in the US of about 12 million cars annually
7. NOTE: No changes to the electrical grid are needed in this time frame.
8. NOTE: Oil and gas exploration and production is still necessary as so much of the life style relies upon products derived from oil and natural gas and are made requiring the concentrated energy in oil and gas.

MID TERM now till 2025,
NG Price pressure from high demand motivates US population to alter energy consumption again
1. Continue replacement of electric resistive and natural gas heating in homes and businesses.
2. The CO2 reduction targets are met and exceeded and there is excess electrical service needed for the US middle class affluence
3. The saved electricity then is available to charge the batteries of plug-in hybrid and all electric vehicles newly purchased.
4. The batteries are then used to store the electrical energy produced when the wind don't blow, the sun don't shine, or the hydro don't flow
5. Electric cars become an integral part of the electrical distribution infrastructure
6. Elimination of overhead infrastructure associated with NG and gasoline distribution and the reduced cost of oversupply of oil will make products cheaper will increase affluence again and birth rates will be lowered again.
7. NOTE: No increase in electric grid capacity is anticipated because the electrical demand curve is flattened during the day and over the seasons and the overall loading is about the same for decreased consumption in homes and increased consumption in cars and the batteries provide the hysteresis in the system.

LONG TERM now till 2050,
Electricity price pressure from high demand motivates electricity suppliers to supply
1. Electrical energy from CO2 neutral, inexhaustible, and FREE energy sources of the wind, earth, and sun.
2. Worldwide middle class affluence achieved and worldwide zero population growth achieved as affluence and population growth rate are directly linked.
3. Worldwide energy sustainability achieved.
4. NOTE: Procreation is as much culturally linked as it is affluence linked so a couple of human generations may be required before ZPG is achieved.
5. NOTE: Anything can happen outside the influence of mans dominion to disrupt these endeavors. But man will survive!

ACTIONS
1. Let market forces motivate the population so they can exercise free will and then allow the capital markets to thrive and perform their function.
2. Widely distribute the plan so the two step process in the near term is understood by the population.
3. Bring pressure to bear on the US government to change regulations regarding conversion of existing automobiles to NG/PROPANE/E85
4. Bring pressure to bear on the US government to adjust the energy tax credits giving emphasis to GSHP coupled to NG/PROPANE/E85 vehicle conversions
5. Promote plug-in hybrid and all electric cars.
6. NOTE: Deemphasize solar electricity generation in homes as maintaining 110 million residential electric solar panels is cost exorbitant compared to the very small cost of maintaining a few thousand centralized solar electric farms.
7. NOTE: Locate windmills closer to the consumer and avoid the cost of electric distribution infrastructure. The Great lakes and off the coast of Rhode Island and off the cost of Oregon are ideal concentrated high wind energy areas.

Republican, fiscal conservatives, who believe in free market ideals and small government who support politicians with the same ideals can do all the planning while the democrats can do all the hand wringing leaving it up to the middle class independents to be the ones motivated by their pocket book to do all the right things.And the Marxists can go to hell.

Z American Energy

We are where we are!

We are without political leadership during an economic downturn going on depression caused by whomever you wish to point a finger at. Well pointing fingers doesn’t do any good or get anything accomplished.

I am here to provide some leadership, empowering you to create your own unique solution while at the same time empowering you to create more personal abundance for you. We each will offer our little something but when all our actions are taken together abundance will be created for all and it will be huge.

Any recovery must start at home and at the local level. Just as the settlers of our land learned a certain amount of co-dependency was greatly beneficial. What we make here must stay here and if we make more than what we need we export it. And what we need, our necessities, is what I will focus on. Energy is a necessity. And optimism is the power. And working and working smarter will get us through.

What we can throw overboard!

1. We don’t need imported oil to fuel our cars.
2. We don’t need propane made from imported oil to heat our homes.
3. We don’t need natural gas to heat our homes


What we need to salvage!

1. We need to use the electricity made right here in US wisely and efficiently.
2. We need natural gas Made in America to fuel our cars.

Truths

What was true 200 years ago is true today.

Our forefathers spent money and worked to clear the land to make more food products to sale for goods and services needed by their families, today we work harder to provide for our families. There is no way around the adage; you have got to spend money to make money! And since we are co-dependant then we each must do what we can and are able to do. Those that can afford to do a lot must do a lot while those that can’t afford to do a lot must do what they can afford.

For those that can afford the investment in a Ground source heat pump and Solar thermal panels will reduce the demand on natural gas, propane, and electricity thereby reducing demand on these resources resulting in a reduction in price to those who can’t afford the investment. And reduced prices means more disposable income for everyone to be spent in the local businesses. What goes around will come around.

Our forefathers had faith to sustain them; faith in a God and faith in their neighbors. And if you believe in this so it shall be.

Our forefathers built this land from the sweat of their brow and the toil of their hands and this has not changed. We continue to sweat and toil but we are blessed with today’s technology making us individually more productive requiring us to sweat and toil less for our needs.

Working Smarter not harder!

My Grandfather built his home with a fireplace for primary space heating as everyone did at the time. As I was told the story Grandfathers house was unique and daring and he was told that it would not work. Grandfather’s fireplace was totally inside the house. The fireplace was not on an exterior wall as was typical for the era. This thinking of grandfather was and still is perfectly rational. Grandfather worked smarter not harder.

Putting the concept in today’s technical terms. The fireplace is a thermal mass that absorbs heat and retains it while radiating its heat for a long time to its surroundings. Putting the heated thermal mass totally inside the thermal envelop of the home then insures that all the heat from the burning wood is kept inside the home where it is needed. Today we would call such innovation central heating.

Likewise you can work smarter not harder when it comes to your energy needs today. Work is energy and energy is work. Working smarter means using less energy to do the same thing and this will leave more of the fruits of your labor for other things, the fun things, the fulfilling things in your life.

The US NG/PROPANE/E85 Vehicle and GSHP Energy Policy and Economic Recovery Plan

The lynch pin of the World's economic recovery


FYI links
GSHP FAQ http://www.igshpa.okstate.edu/geothermal/faq.htm
GSHP http://www.eagle-mt.com/
NGV RETROFIT KIT http://www.cngoutfitters.com/
E85 RETROFIT KIT http://www.fuelflexint.com/
SOLAR THERMAL PANEL http://www.integratedsolar.com/

Wow, this guy is even more clueless than most of the doomers here! I never thought I'd say that, but it's true. There isn't a single coherent thought in this entire diatribe! At the same time he's railing against progressives and Marxism, he's tell us we need a national policy to promote natural gas use!! Heck, it's even got time targets, as in one of those Soviet 5-year plans.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('focusonz', '[')b]Wrong, Progressives abolished textile import tariffs to the demise of the US textile industry and loss of 100's thousands of US jobs. (marxism)

[Aging gypsy]

Progressive marxists hell bent on destroying America?
Don`t know about that, AMERICANS seem hell bent on destroying America and the rest of the world with it!
USE LESS, there`s your starting point America.

[Frank]

I was looking at the EIA site and found this:

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9060us2m.htm

Does anyone know what causes these losses? They're at an all-time high right now but so is output. Comments?

TIA