$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')While this famous (and censored) chart is interesting, I believe it is quite misleading.
For example, lets go back to 1975 or so. See those spikes in the late 1930's or so? Thats basically Ghawar. In 1975 the height of those 3 bars wouldn't be where they are now ( approx 30-35 bboe ), they would be more like 20 bboe or so. The reason for this is that the best estimates of Ghawar in 1975 were much smaller. Nowadays, the known size of Ghawar is much larger. By continually backdating these changes in size, the overall shape of this graph remains the same, and its very difficult to notice that those bars just keep getting taller and taller as time goes on. Certainly near impossible to determine if changes in those bars actually are keeping up with consumption rates.
PeakOil is You
Looking for up-to-date global oil production data
Re: Looking for up-to-date global oil production data
by Anders » Wed 19 May 2010, 00:24:05
I don't know enough about the exact figures, but it's a fact that the U.S. oil production for example peaked in the early 70s, and the North Sea oil production peaked in 1999 and so on. And that on a global level there is the same trend of oil reserves going into a state of decline faster than new reserves are found and existing reserves being able to be more effectively extracted.
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Re: Looking for up-to-date global oil production data
by shortonsense » Wed 19 May 2010, 09:35:58
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '
')I don't know enough about the exact figures, but it's a fact that the U.S. oil production for example peaked in the early 70s, and the North Sea oil production peaked in 1999 and so on.
')I don't know enough about the exact figures, but it's a fact that the U.S. oil production for example peaked in the early 70s, and the North Sea oil production peaked in 1999 and so on.
There are many "facts" involved in the peak oil debate, and many peaks.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', '
') And that on a global level there is the same trend of oil reserves going into a state of decline faster than new reserves are found and existing reserves being able to be more effectively extracted.
I don't know what you mean by "same trend of oil reserves going into a state of decline"? Oil reserves have on average been increasing each year by the amount consumed plus a little more, which is why reserves have been getting higher and higher over the years. If I recall my last experiment, all oil reserves from about 1980 have already disappeared into consumption....yet we still have twice as much in reserves now than we did then. And it doesn't have as much to do with that particular discovery graph as many would like. Like I said, that graph is censored, it's as much a propaganda tool as anything else.
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Re: Looking for up-to-date global oil production data
by Anders » Wed 19 May 2010, 09:48:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'O')il reserves have on average been increasing each year by the amount consumed plus a little more, which is why reserves have been getting higher and higher over the years.
Are you saying that the decline in U.S. oil production since the early 70s for example is because of not using existing reserves enough? I find that hard to believe.
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