PeakOil is You
Looking for up-to-date global oil production data
Looking for up-to-date global oil production data
by Anders » Tue 18 May 2010, 11:14:44
Does anyone have a link to recent global oil production data? Not estimations but actual historical data up to present day. I found a chart showing global oil production up to the end of 2009 and am curious how the graph looks after that.
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Re: Looking for up-to-date global oil production data
by Anders » Tue 18 May 2010, 11:36:10
Oops! Just after I had posted this thread I found pretty much what I was looking for:
From: http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/05/l ... stics.html
Notice the truncated scale for the production (75 - 88 mbd) which makes the graph look like it's moving up and down a lot, but in reality the global oil production has remained basically flat (around 84 - 86 mbd). Also, the correlation between production and price is less than it might seem according to this chart. A steep price drop from $147 to $40 a barrel only altered the global oil production by around 3 mbd.
From: http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/05/l ... stics.html
Notice the truncated scale for the production (75 - 88 mbd) which makes the graph look like it's moving up and down a lot, but in reality the global oil production has remained basically flat (around 84 - 86 mbd). Also, the correlation between production and price is less than it might seem according to this chart. A steep price drop from $147 to $40 a barrel only altered the global oil production by around 3 mbd.
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Re: Looking for up-to-date global oil production data
by Anders » Tue 18 May 2010, 11:54:04
Another observation that can be made from the chart is that the production peak around 2008 actually happened before the peak in price. I'm not an expert but that could be significant. If the price was the dominant factor in determining total production, then the production should have continued to increase along with the price increasing. But it didn't! That to me indicates that the maximum production capacity had been reached at that point, and further increase in price could no longer keep determining the production rate. Of course, this may be a way too simplistic analysis, so some experts would probably have to look at it to really determine the reason for the early production peak.
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Re: Looking for up-to-date global oil production data
by Pops » Tue 18 May 2010, 12:50:12
It isn't moving very much in historical terms, here is the context from The Oil Drum:
I can't take time right now to look up citations but US consumers were way ahead of wall street and had already started pulling back before that peak and the bank bust. Further, lots of scared money was leaving real estate and along with demand from Chindia's crazy-growth, commodities of all sorts were hot - including oil.
What it tells me is that consumption is pretty elastic after all - high prices (maybe US $100+) = fewer jobs = less demand.
I can't take time right now to look up citations but US consumers were way ahead of wall street and had already started pulling back before that peak and the bank bust. Further, lots of scared money was leaving real estate and along with demand from Chindia's crazy-growth, commodities of all sorts were hot - including oil.
What it tells me is that consumption is pretty elastic after all - high prices (maybe US $100+) = fewer jobs = less demand.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Looking for up-to-date global oil production data
by Anders » Tue 18 May 2010, 13:16:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')t isn't moving very much in historical terms, ...
I can't take time right now to look up citations but US consumers were way ahead of wall street and had already started pulling back before that peak and the bank bust. Further, lots of scared money was leaving real estate and along with demand from Chindia's crazy-growth, commodities of all sorts were hot - including oil.
What it tells me is that consumption is pretty elastic after all - high prices (maybe US $100+) = fewer jobs = less demand.
I can't take time right now to look up citations but US consumers were way ahead of wall street and had already started pulling back before that peak and the bank bust. Further, lots of scared money was leaving real estate and along with demand from Chindia's crazy-growth, commodities of all sorts were hot - including oil.
What it tells me is that consumption is pretty elastic after all - high prices (maybe US $100+) = fewer jobs = less demand.
Ok, yeah the price is not the only thing that determines production. Demand is also a needed factor.
Interesting exponential chart from 1900 to 1980. It's definitely some kind of plateau that has been reached in global oil production the recent years. It will be interesting to see how the global production will fluctuate in the near future.
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Re: Looking for up-to-date global oil production data
by Anders » Tue 18 May 2010, 14:42:16
For fun I combined the two charts: 
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Re: Looking for up-to-date global oil production data
by misterno » Tue 18 May 2010, 15:24:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anders', 'A')nother observation that can be made from the chart is that the production peak around 2008 actually happened before the peak in price. I'm not an expert but that could be significant. If the price was the dominant factor in determining total production, then the production should have continued to increase along with the price increasing. But it didn't! That to me indicates that the maximum production capacity had been reached at that point, and further increase in price could no longer keep determining the production rate. Of course, this may be a way too simplistic analysis, so some experts would probably have to look at it to really determine the reason for the early production peak.
you are wrong
the reason the oıl productıon dıd not go up as much as the prıce ıs because the producers could not fınd enough storage place to store extra productıon.
Please remember the saudı oıl mınıster's comment on thıs sıtuatıon. He saıd they fılled a tanker wıth oıl when the prıce was around $140/barrel and no one was bothered to buy ıt although ıt was prıced same as the market.
Thıs ıs tellıng me that the huge run up ın the prıce was purely speculatıve not because of excess demand.
Keep ın mınd that there ıs paper demand and there ıs physıcal demand. No one knows whıch one ıs larger than the other. If I knew I would be the rıchest person ın the world.
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Re: Looking for up-to-date global oil production data
by GoghGoner » Tue 18 May 2010, 16:05:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', '
')the reason the oıl productıon dıd not go up as much as the prıce ıs because the producers could not fınd enough storage place to store extra productıon.
Please remember the saudı oıl mınıster's comment on thıs sıtuatıon. He saıd they fılled a tanker wıth oıl when the prıce was around $140/barrel and no one was bothered to buy ıt although ıt was prıced same as the market.
Thıs ıs tellıng me that the huge run up ın the prıce was purely speculatıve not because of excess demand.
')the reason the oıl productıon dıd not go up as much as the prıce ıs because the producers could not fınd enough storage place to store extra productıon.
Please remember the saudı oıl mınıster's comment on thıs sıtuatıon. He saıd they fılled a tanker wıth oıl when the prıce was around $140/barrel and no one was bothered to buy ıt although ıt was prıced same as the market.
Thıs ıs tellıng me that the huge run up ın the prıce was purely speculatıve not because of excess demand.
Why is this comment by the oil minister true? Many other comments by this group have been shown to be false. To believe this comment, you would have to believe that markets do not function at all.
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Re: Looking for up-to-date global oil production data
by Anders » Tue 18 May 2010, 16:18:46
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', '
')you are wrong
the reason the oıl productıon dıd not go up as much as the prıce ıs because the producers could not fınd enough storage place to store extra productıon.
Please remember the saudı oıl mınıster's comment on thıs sıtuatıon. He saıd they fılled a tanker wıth oıl when the prıce was around $140/barrel and no one was bothered to buy ıt although ıt was prıced same as the market.
Thıs ıs tellıng me that the huge run up ın the prıce was purely speculatıve not because of excess demand.
Keep ın mınd that there ıs paper demand and there ıs physıcal demand. No one knows whıch one ıs larger than the other. If I knew I would be the rıchest person ın the world.
')you are wrong
the reason the oıl productıon dıd not go up as much as the prıce ıs because the producers could not fınd enough storage place to store extra productıon.
Please remember the saudı oıl mınıster's comment on thıs sıtuatıon. He saıd they fılled a tanker wıth oıl when the prıce was around $140/barrel and no one was bothered to buy ıt although ıt was prıced same as the market.
Thıs ıs tellıng me that the huge run up ın the prıce was purely speculatıve not because of excess demand.
Keep ın mınd that there ıs paper demand and there ıs physıcal demand. No one knows whıch one ıs larger than the other. If I knew I would be the rıchest person ın the world.
Ok, but one thing I find strange is that the economic growth in the world during the 20th century matches an exponential oil production increase. And in the 21th century that economic growth has continued and even increased a lot for very large countries like India and China. So there must as I see it exist a huge demand for oil globally. And that the plateau we have seen from around 2005 is in fact a result of a decline in actual oil reserves.
For example, Saudi Arabia has tripled their number of oil rigs the last few years, yet still barely been able to keep their oil production at the same level. The huge Cantarell field in Mexico has gone into a decline (that was hardly affected at all even when the price went to $147 and then down to $40 a barrel). So there seems to be a geological reality that is the cause of the global oil production having reached a plateau, rather than price or demand or infrastructure issues.
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