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Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

Postby bencole » Fri 14 May 2010, 00:07:20

Good article:

Shale Gas – Miracle Pill or Empty Promise?


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1272348540.php
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Re: Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

Postby shortonsense » Fri 14 May 2010, 00:15:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bencole', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is just one sedimentary basin in one corner of Canada
.

No, it is THE sedimentary basin in Canada, by far the most important, in fact it contains the one of the WORLD's largest reserves of oil and natural gas, your ignorance of this fact says a lot.


Actually, the West Sed basin ain't much if you throw out the tar sands, which aren't even really an oil operation, more like a mining one. Without that.....phhhttttt....the West Sed basin ain't anything special at all....for goodness sake, its regular conventional oil is smaller than a few fields in Alaska probably....

And as far as crappy oil, Chavez has you guys beat all to the moon and back, his stuff doesn't need mined.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bencole', '
')No, the upper bound is meaningless, considering the fact that it is unknown if any of it can be produced economically. The huge difference between the upper and lower bounds is indicative of this uncertainty.


No. It isn't. Because everything is economic under the right scenario, so what really matters is the actual size. And like Oily said, the size is STAGGERING. Unless you guys have some hydrates? Now THOSE are usually SUPER-staggering....
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Re: Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

Postby shortonsense » Fri 14 May 2010, 00:21:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bencole', 'G')ood article:

Shale Gas – Miracle Pill or Empty Promise?


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1272348540.php


Actually, standard incompetent article. Here's the dead giveaway:

"In the past, due to limitations in drilling technology, shale gas was not accessible."

Shale gas was being produced in Fredonia, New York in 1821. One of the largest gasfields in the US was discovered in 1917, and is still the 18th largest ever in this country, and guess what the producing formation is? Shale of course.

Find a better source.
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Re: Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

Postby shortonsense » Fri 14 May 2010, 00:25:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bencole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')
come on now....choosing only the low end of a range...tsk...tsk....one could be led to think that you are not being objective by ignoring your own reference material.


I think someone selecting a figure of 1350 TCF arbirarily fits the definition of not being objective quite nicely.


I certainly didn't advocate for any particular number, only for recognizing all numbers and then judging based on the source rather than cherry picking. Challenge Oily on his source if you'd like, but be forewarned, he tends to whip out much better sources than the one you did from some gold specialist or another.
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Re: Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

Postby copious.abundance » Fri 14 May 2010, 00:34:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bencole', 'N')o, it is THE sedimentary basin in Canada, by far the most important, in fact it contains the one of the WORLD's largest reserves of oil and natural gas, your ignorance of this fact says a lot.

OK, fair enough, I just did a google-image search for "western canada sedimentary basin" and it looks like it covers most of Alberta and Saskatchewan, plus some of Manitoba.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bencole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s noted above, even the lower bound is huge. The upper bound is . . . staggering.

No, the upper bound is meaningless, considering the fact that it is unknown if any of it can be produced economically. The huge difference between the upper and lower bounds is indicative of this uncertainty.

Don't tell me - you're another one of those people who think natural gas companies are spending billions of dollars on shale gas production every year in recent years in order to lose money. :badgrin:

Oh yeah, and I noticed you cited Aurthur Berman's work on goldseek.com (lol). I guess you haven't been paying attention, but Berman's work has been thoroughly discredited. On The Oil Drum, I asked him how can he assume all these gas companies are spending all this money drilling for shale gas just so they could lose money (his conclusion), and even he admitted he could not figure out why. He actually even admitted a minority of the wells in the Barnett shale *are* profitable, and those carry the majority non-profitable ones. In other words, in aggregate they are profitable, it's just that some are more profitable than others. So what, that's the case with nearly every economic good.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

Postby copious.abundance » Fri 14 May 2010, 00:50:12

BTW, Catman had 2 really good posts in that thread:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6229#comment-592872
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6229#comment-592920
Another good analysis here:
http://openchoke.blogs.com/open_choke/2 ... ville.html

Rockman also had some good replies in that thread too.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

Postby Maddog78 » Fri 14 May 2010, 02:39:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bencole', '
')
http://www.energy.alberta.ca/NaturalGas/944.asp

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')stimates of shale gas within the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin resource vary from 86 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) to over 1000 Tcf. While there is huge potential in Alberta, shale gas production is in very early stages and commercial development is not likely to occur in Alberta for a number of years. This energy source has the potential to make a significant contribution to Alberta’s future natural gas supply.


Ahhh, an Alberta Energy link.
Alberta is just being pissy cause they dicked around with their royalties so much that most of the shale gas drilling is being done in B.C.
:-D
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Re: Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

Postby Maddog78 » Fri 14 May 2010, 04:26:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bencole', '
')A completely baseless assumption considering the FACT that....

The FACT is that you obviously didn't read the article.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')till, the total amount of gas in Canada is even higher because a number of unconventional resource plays were excluded from the new estimate because of a lack of adequate information.

The excluded plays are: Alberta's Montney formation; the Devonian shales in Alberta; the Devonian shales in the Mackenzie Valley corridor; the Liard basin, which is west of the prolific Horn River play; the deep thermogenic Colorado group of shales in western Alberta; the St. Lawrence lowlands, save for the part of Quebec's Utica shale where estimation methodologies could be identified and included; the Central Maritimes basin, located predominately in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and with an onshore component in New Brunswick and the southern tip of Newfoundland; and natural-gas hydrates.
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Re: Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

Postby americandream » Fri 14 May 2010, 06:02:40

Ah well, this should delight shorty and OF, intent as they are on convincing the rest of us that it's BAU for capitalism and the Chinese made crap we have all come to so love and enjoy.
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Re: Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

Postby shortonsense » Sat 15 May 2010, 10:50:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'A')h well, this should delight shorty and OF, intent as they are on convincing the rest of us that it's BAU for capitalism and the Chinese made crap we have all come to so love and enjoy.


Observing that BAU is continuing and advocating it are two different things which you appear to be confusing. I haven't ever advocated for BAU, but I do recognize that peak oil certainly hasn't stopped it from happening. And if you enjoy Chinese made crap, good for you, just don't assign such nonsense to me because it certainly isn't true.
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Re: Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

Postby Sixstrings » Sat 15 May 2010, 13:17:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')nterestingly, it's not out of the question that uses of NG could increase and the economy grow without a corresponding increase in consumption


Oilfinder, what your're saying has not been true for any single natural resource in the history of mankind. More growth ALWAYS means more resource use -- there are no exceptions to this fact.

Your chart shows a slowing of the rise in use of nat gas, but not a drop off or leveling. I would say the rate of rise has only slowed simply because a lot of folks are using other forms of energy -- residential gas ovens have become less common over the years, for example.

But that could all change down the line.. when oil gets scarce, you'll see a massive rise in nat gas powered vehicles.

But anyway, Oilfinder could you at least admit that this "enough for 500 years stuff" that they've always claimed about coal, and now now nat gas, is totally bogus since it assumes zero growth?
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Re: Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

Postby shortonsense » Sat 15 May 2010, 15:17:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')nterestingly, it's not out of the question that uses of NG could increase and the economy grow without a corresponding increase in consumption


Oilfinder, what your're saying has not been true for any single natural resource in the history of mankind. More growth ALWAYS means more resource use -- there are no exceptions to this fact.


Statements presented as fact around here should all be tested. OF has provided information showing that there appear to be quite a few more users of natural gas without a corresponding increase in consumption. Certainly crude imports in the US are about the same level as they were back in the 70's and undoubtedly the country, GDP and car counts have grown. Japanese oil imports are expected to be at their lowest level in 17 years while its nominal GDP has climbed some 40% during the same time.

So much for "facts" and "no exceptions".
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Re: Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

Postby Ludi » Sat 15 May 2010, 16:01:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')Certainly crude imports in the US are about the same level as they were back in the 70's

Image

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/ ... RIMUS2&f=A
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Re: Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

Postby shortonsense » Sat 15 May 2010, 17:20:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')Certainly crude imports in the US are about the same level as they were back in the 70's

Image

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/ ... RIMUS2&f=A


I stand corrected. Fortunately ( for me ), it does not change the point.

US crude oil CONSUMPTION is about the same today as it was back in the 70's. And of course, we do this with millions more cars, people, buildings, etc etc. Which certainly negates the "facts" as presented by others.

("about the same" in my book is probably no more than a few %, call it <5%? While I do not know the accuracy of the EIA information, such an error bar seems reasonable )
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Re: Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

Postby copious.abundance » Sun 16 May 2010, 20:08:31

Sixstrings, this bump is for you.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'H')ere we go. Simce 1987, the number of residential and commercial consumers of natural gas has risen substantially while consumption in those sectors has remained flat, and the number of industrial users has remained about flat while consumption has gone down.

Residential users and consumption
Image
Image

Commercial users and consumption
Image
Image

Industrial users and consumption
Image
Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

Postby bencole » Mon 17 May 2010, 21:00:45

http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/0 ... -gas-boom/

Another article to counter oilfinder2, shortonsense, and maddog78's useless propaganda, please read all concerned.
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Re: Canada has N. gas for more than 100 years of demand

Postby copious.abundance » Mon 17 May 2010, 21:27:43

^
The ASPPO? (that is, the Association for the Study Promotion of Peak Oil)

Lol, such an unbiased source! :lol:

But actually the article wasn't that bad, at least they presented both sides of the argument. But not surprisingly, at the end he concludes:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ill we have a shale gas boom? I’ve described the contentious argument among those who follow the natural gas industry. Generally, my sympathy lies with skeptics like Art Berman.

See reference to Art Berman above.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')As someone who has written extensively about peak oil, I’ve encountered the human proclivity to hype a situation far beyond any semblance to reality time and time again.

Yeah, how about the hype surrounding peak oil? He seems to have conveniently forgotten that particular kind of hype.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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