[Maddog78]

http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=3021012



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ALGARY - Canada is sitting on nearly 4,000 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, a dramatic jump from previous estimates thanks to the inclusion of unconventional natural gas estimates, says a report released yesterday that for first time measures shale gas and other plays that are difficult to access.

The amount of marketable gas -- the chunk that can be recovered and sold to the market after impurities are stripped out -- hovers between 700 TCF and 1,300 TCF, the Canadian Society for Unconventional Gas said.

Total marketable gas from conventional sources is estimated to be 357 TCF, the Calgary-based organization said. Canada's previous gas estimates were based on only conventional plays without providing hard data on unconventional resources

[Rod_Cloutier]

Huge quantities of Natural gas have to be burned to create the steam to extract oil from the tar sands. Currently being used at a rate of a billion cubic feet of Natural gas a day:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_Oil_Sands

Their planning on doubling or tripling output in the next 20 years. How many years of Natural gas does Canada have left? I bet oil sands consumption wasn't factored into that 100 year figure.

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', '[')b] I bet oil sands consumption wasn't factored into that 100 year figure.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', '[')b] I bet oil sands consumption wasn't factored into that 100 year figure.

[Maddog78]

Yes, but you can also see they used the minimum number on production.
700 tcf when they can probably produce 1350 tcf and quite likely more than that since there is 4000 tcf available to produce.


There was also an announcement just yesterday that the biggest shale gas field in Canada was discovered in New Brunswick by Corridor Resources and will start to be developed by a Corridor/Apache partnership.
This was not taken into account and there is no doubt there are more n. gas shale fields to be discovered.
Exports are not likely to increase significantly for a long, long time since the US has their own vast amount of n. gas shale fields.

This is quite a change from a few years ago when there were stories of only a few years of n. gas left.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', '[')b] I bet oil sands consumption wasn't factored into that 100 year figure.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', 'T')heir planning on doubling or tripling output in the next 20 years. How many years of Natural gas does Canada have left? I bet oil sands consumption wasn't factored into that 100 year figure.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'T')here was also an announcement just yesterday that the biggest shale gas field in Canada was discovered in New Brunswick by Corridor Resources and will start to be developed by a Corridor/Apache partnership.
This was not taken into account and there is no doubt there are more n. gas shale fields to be discovered..

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'T')his "enough for 500 years" fallacy has been thrown around for a long time now. It always assumes ZERO GROWTH, so in this case they may have 100 years of nat gas but that's assuming absolutely no growth in the nation of Canada for a century. Mmkay.

As we all know, if we don't have growth everything collapses anyhow and then nobody will need so much natural gas.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', '
')Exports are not likely to increase significantly for a long, long time since the US has their own vast amount of n. gas shale fields.

[copious.abundance]

BTW, it just occurred to me that the above example of US gas consumption is an example of Jevon's Paradox not holding true. In spite of what are obviously huge increases in efficiency, this has not led to an increase in consumption (at least not by much). Don't know if this is the exception or the rule, but at least it shows that Devon's Paradox does not always hold.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')As we all know, if we don't have growth everything collapses anyhow and then nobody will need so much natural gas.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'B')TW, it just occurred to me that the above example of US gas consumption is an example of Jevon's Paradox not holding true. In spite of what are obviously huge increases in efficiency, this has not led to an increase in consumption (at least not by much). Don't know if this is the exception or the rule, but at least it shows that Devon's Paradox does not always hold.

[copious.abundance]

Here we go. Simce 1987, the number of residential and commercial consumers of natural gas has risen substantially while consumption in those sectors has remained flat, and the number of industrial users has remained about flat while consumption has gone down.

Residential users and consumption



Commercial users and consumption



Industrial users and consumption

[bencole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'Y')es, but you can also see they used the minimum number on production.
700 tcf when they can probably produce 1350 tcf and quite likely more than that since there is 4000 tcf available to produce.

OMG . . . *shakes head*
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bencole', 'S')ome estimates as low as 86 TCF have been suggested as being availible in the entire western Canada sedimentary basin, for example.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bencole', '
')A completely baseless assumption considering the FACT that it is unknown how much of this shale gas can be economically produced. Some estimates as low as 86 TCF have been suggested as being availible in the entire western Canada sedimentary basin, for example.

http://www.energy.alberta.ca/NaturalGas/944.asp

[copious.abundance]

Here's a map I just found showing the extent of (some of) the major black shale areas in Canada. Notice this does not include the one in NB Maddog referenced before.



Then there are tight gas areas:



And coal bed methane:


Source for all

No doubt there are other areas not shown on the maps. Looks like at least 1/3 of the land area of the lower provinces is underlain by at least one gas-bearing formation. It will take them centuries to exhaust a resource like that.

[bencole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'O')MG . . . *shakes head*

[bencole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')
come on now....choosing only the low end of a range...tsk...tsk....one could be led to think that you are not being objective by ignoring your own reference material.