PeakOil is You
A-Peak-alypse Now!
Re: A-Peak-alypse Now!
by AirlinePilot » Tue 11 May 2010, 01:30:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')I've said it before, I'll say it again, oil is already obsolete...it just doesn't know it yet.
I really don't think that the majority of folks living on this planet would come to the same conclusion. Oil Obsolete? Only if your a student of PO and that is a very small portion of the present human population.
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Re: A-Peak-alypse Now!
by shortonsense » Tue 11 May 2010, 10:08:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')I've said it before, I'll say it again, oil is already obsolete...it just doesn't know it yet.
I really don't think that the majority of folks living on this planet would come to the same conclusion. Oil Obsolete? Only if your a student of PO and that is a very small portion of the present human population.
The number of us who can see the transition will only grow with time, but do the numbers of how many of us can SEE this coming really matter?
It will happen and a majority won't even have to THINK about it...the windmills go up, the electrical transport arrives, the economics of substitution land on them like a ton of bricks over the years and decades, and their commuting, suburbia world just continues as is.
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Re: A-Peak-alypse Now!
by mos6507 » Tue 11 May 2010, 11:17:33
Shorty, if you think unconventional, renewables, and gas will swoop in and save the day, fine. I don't completely discount these things, but the devil's in the details. The EROEI of unconventional. The high embodied energy, energy storage issue, and NIMBYism of renewables (see Cape Wind). The uncertainty about shale gas, like the recent stories about the pollution of drinking water, or the rapid depletion rates. And methane hydrates are a complete unknown right now. And on top of that, consider the likelihood of a dollar collapse leading to a huge shortfall of available capital for these kinds of projects. We already saw what happened to the Pickens Plan, and renewables of late have been almost completely dependent on government subsidies.
But let's take your scenario for granted. Step back. Now we, at least for the next 30 years or so, have enough energy to allow BAU to continue. Now we're left with increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, the continued impact of global warming and overall environmental collapse under the weight of 8-10 billion of us.
You're telling me this is gonna end well? I can conceive of a kick-the-can scenario that allows me to finish off my lifestyle without paying the piper in my increasingly shrinking bubble of suburban paradise, but I find it much harder to conceive of my daughter doing the same.
That's why I call myself a limits-to-growther. You can not look at peak oil in isolation, but as part of the greater limits to growth narrative. Within that context, there really is no way out the other side without a significant population contraction or commensurate drop in resource usage. The cost of maintaining this house of cards is unsustainable, period.
But let's take your scenario for granted. Step back. Now we, at least for the next 30 years or so, have enough energy to allow BAU to continue. Now we're left with increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, the continued impact of global warming and overall environmental collapse under the weight of 8-10 billion of us.
You're telling me this is gonna end well? I can conceive of a kick-the-can scenario that allows me to finish off my lifestyle without paying the piper in my increasingly shrinking bubble of suburban paradise, but I find it much harder to conceive of my daughter doing the same.
That's why I call myself a limits-to-growther. You can not look at peak oil in isolation, but as part of the greater limits to growth narrative. Within that context, there really is no way out the other side without a significant population contraction or commensurate drop in resource usage. The cost of maintaining this house of cards is unsustainable, period.
- mos6507
Re: A-Peak-alypse Now!
by mos6507 » Tue 11 May 2010, 11:26:35
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')suburbia world just continues as is.
')suburbia world just continues as is.
As would enlarging nitrogen deadzones, aquifer depletion, growing droughts, shifting hardiness zones, species extinctions, arctic melting, sealevel rise, increased violent storms, etc... That's to say nothing of the geopolitics. What happens to China and India as they attempt to have the lifestyle we have? The world isn't big enough for everyone to have kind of environmental footprint.
There is no free ride, shorty. Propping up BAU has a cost. Maybe you can try to shove that cost out of sight, out of mind, but it's there in a way that certainly wasn't evident when we first took off on this exponential trajectory after WWII. To continue as is requires that those at the top of the pyramid to block out thinking about the costs and the have-nots who needed to stay having not to leave enough of the pie for them.
- mos6507
