I know this isn't exactly current, but it's a good read. It covers a lot of the different issues we talk a lot about here...
http://www.geocities.com/davidmdelaney/after-oil-david-fleming.html
PeakOil is You
Great Article/website from 2000
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Great Article/website from 2000
by Soft_Landing » Fri 23 Jul 2004, 08:56:25
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by Aaron » Fri 23 Jul 2004, 09:17:43
Great Quote from that piece:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he competition for oil to keep transport moving will be real and raw. The US will fight hard and dirty, for three reasons. First, its economy is organized around the assumption of cheap, long-distance transport. Second, it has a lot of money: it can afford to bid high. Third, the US has an additional problem: it is facing not just a shortfall in the supply of oil but, at the same time, a progressive reduction in the supply of gas; it already relies on gas imports from Canada, whose own reserves are now depleting rapidly. The timing is bad: just at the moment when the world's supply of oil begins to decline, the US will have a new and pressing incentive to increase its consumption.
By being able to afford high prices, the US will export oil scarcity to the rest of the world. At this point, a number of things begin to unravel. Poorer countries will be in deep trouble, with an energy famine affecting transport and spilling over even into food production and distribution. With daily lives locked into dependency on road transport, consumers will strain to cope with prices, but the scarcities themselves will persist. For substantial parts of the global economy, the travel and distribution on which they depend will not be an option. There will be economic destabilization.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he competition for oil to keep transport moving will be real and raw. The US will fight hard and dirty, for three reasons. First, its economy is organized around the assumption of cheap, long-distance transport. Second, it has a lot of money: it can afford to bid high. Third, the US has an additional problem: it is facing not just a shortfall in the supply of oil but, at the same time, a progressive reduction in the supply of gas; it already relies on gas imports from Canada, whose own reserves are now depleting rapidly. The timing is bad: just at the moment when the world's supply of oil begins to decline, the US will have a new and pressing incentive to increase its consumption.
By being able to afford high prices, the US will export oil scarcity to the rest of the world. At this point, a number of things begin to unravel. Poorer countries will be in deep trouble, with an energy famine affecting transport and spilling over even into food production and distribution. With daily lives locked into dependency on road transport, consumers will strain to cope with prices, but the scarcities themselves will persist. For substantial parts of the global economy, the travel and distribution on which they depend will not be an option. There will be economic destabilization.
A compelling argument... Rich countries exporting shortages. Seems to me this is a defacto version of the energy rationing mentioned later in this piece. Countries barter for energy resources, and therefore also barter the shortages, so to speak.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.
Hazel Henderson
Hazel Henderson
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by Leanan » Fri 23 Jul 2004, 10:11:32
That is a good article. Particularly like the step by step refuting of the economic "demand creates supply" idea.
But I had to laugh at this part, about Iraq's oil:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t lies, however, in a country which is armed to the teeth, consumed by loathing of the west, and just waiting for a US armed intervention to make its day.
But I had to laugh at this part, about Iraq's oil:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t lies, however, in a country which is armed to the teeth, consumed by loathing of the west, and just waiting for a US armed intervention to make its day.
Well, one out three's not bad.
Is Prospect magazine anything like American Prospect, the liberal/Democratic magazine on this side of the pond?
And I looked for the author's supposedly upcoming book, The Lean Economy, but couldn't find it. It was supposed to be published in 2001, but looks like it wasn't.
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by Soft_Landing » Fri 23 Jul 2004, 11:36:29
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'A')nd I looked for the author's supposedly upcoming book, The Lean Economy, but couldn't find it. It was supposed to be published in 2001, but looks like it wasn't.
Yeah, I had a little looksy myself. A bit strange that. I found websites suggesting that the book was about to be released in 2001, 2002, 2003, and now 2004.
Here is a link to a chapter by David Fleming in a book called Before The Wells Run Dry. The entire book is published on this site (and includes a chapter by C. Campbell). Best of all, it's free! So no excuses for those not book buying people...
http://www.feasta.org/documents/wells/contents.html?two/fleming.htm
BTW, in David Flemings Bibliography...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3')3. David Fleming (forthcoming) The Lean Economy, chapter 14.
Yup, still forthcoming...
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