.
I understand your healthy skepticism , worriers have been crying wolf for a long time
In the late 17th century England , there was peak charcoal ,
cutting down forests to make iron was restricted to the royal ordinance forges for making Royal Navy canons
instead the Darby's familly use of coke ( calcined coal , freed from its sulfur contend ) opened the use of coal for smelting and the industrial revolution , it saved forests too
mid 19th century , there was peak whales , whale oil was used for lighting and lubrication , the use of distillate of rock oil , pioneered by a Pole created a new market and lifted the limitations of supplies , It ( for a while ) saved the whales .
The fears on the continuous supply of a vital element must be as old as cavemen worrying about the increasing scarcity of easily accessible good flint nodules
In fact , there are paleolithic mining shafts in Normandy dug to access this commodity , complete with a caveman miner buried with his antler pick in a cave in ,
probably the first case of industrial accident , the flint blanks were traded all over western Europe too
Still , shortages are real enough , any life form exist on acquiring energy , any society main concerns are safety and supply .
to keep pumping 86 millions barrel a day is no joke , oil is now being searched for in increasingly difficult and costly environments
quite a lot of fields are depleted or past their prime , finding replacement is seriously lagging , especially for the giants and super giants category
Most industry observers accept Peak Oil as a concept , the only disagreement is the date .
IMHO , this decade will see a serious crisis
The ramping up of the Irak field is going to be a close thing
the only other underexploited province is in Iran ,
there is not a good prospect for an serious production increase on the ten years horizon .
meanwhile depletion take its toll and as you point out oil prices have been rising above the general trend
.
PeakOil is You
oil and the PIIGS
Re: oil and the PIIGS
by sparky » Sat 17 Apr 2010, 20:57:12
-
sparky - Intermediate Crude
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
- Location: Sydney , OZ
Re: oil and the PIIGS
by shortonsense » Sat 17 Apr 2010, 22:08:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
I understand your healthy skepticism , worriers have been crying wolf for a long time
In the late 17th century England , there was peak charcoal ,
mid 19th century , there was peak whales ,.
The fears on the continuous supply of a vital element must be as old as cavemen worrying about the increasing scarcity of easily accessible good flint nodules
I understand your healthy skepticism , worriers have been crying wolf for a long time
In the late 17th century England , there was peak charcoal ,
mid 19th century , there was peak whales ,.
The fears on the continuous supply of a vital element must be as old as cavemen worrying about the increasing scarcity of easily accessible good flint nodules
A completely reasonable and amazingly clear statement, involving historical facts beyond reproach. Which is one reason why peakers almost never mention it, and second, it BEGS the next obvious question......"what makes THIS one special". I have often called for anyone to claim a single, non recycled thought on the topic, but to date, have been disappointed.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '
')to keep pumping 86 millions barrel a day is no joke , oil is now being searched for in increasingly difficult and costly environments
And this has been going on since the days wire rope was substituted for the manila on drilling rigs. Ghawar itself would have been "increasingly difficult and costly" (if not outright impossible) to those stalwart cable tool drillers of the 19th century. When the criteria used is mostly just an illusion of perspective, it isn't much of a criteria.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '
')quite a lot of fields are depleted or past their prime , finding replacement is seriously lagging , especially for the giants and super giants category
Its been happening since the peak of discovery happened in 1935. Which took place 8 years before Harold Ickes proclaimed that we were running out of oil. Which happened 67 years ago. And yet.....here we are....with trillions of barrels just floating around, already discovered, just waiting for the requisite price point to convert the next trillion barrels. And the amazing thing is, we've already begun the transition because of environmental concerns, the world has finally achieved a level of wealth and understanding that its begun migrating away from crude oil production, and instead is exponentially growing wind and solar and other energy sources. Go humans!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', ' ')
Most industry observers accept Peak Oil as a concept , the only disagreement is the date .
Everyone accepts peak oil, even JD and Lynch and CERA and EIA, everyone. Well, maybe not the abiotic crowd, but everyone else. The problem, as we've discussed in another thread, are that the hysterical hangers-on attach all these scenarios to the event and pretend that THAT is peak oil, when its just some hysterical scenario they dreamed up. So when anyone says "peak oil" it instantly gets lumped into the crackpot category rather than the serious issue category.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '
')IMHO , this decade will see a serious crisis
The ramping up of the Irak field is going to be a close thing
the only other underexploited province is in Iran ,
there is not a good prospect for an serious production increase on the ten years horizon.
There are 500 billion barrels laying around in Venezuela. If Chavez hadn't kicked out the experts, he could have as high an oil production rate as he is willing to invest in. Same sort of situation with Iran I agree, with Iraq having been in the same category until recently.
But it doesn't matter, peak demand has already been a much stronger force in the marketplace than supply, and as long as governments keep up the drive and incentive for other types of fuels and technologies, in particular natural gas, wind and PV's, needing more crude isn't really all that critical.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '
')meanwhile depletion take its toll and as you point out oil prices have been rising above the general trend
.
Depletion started taking its toll in August of 1859. The end of rock oil had already been trumpeted 4 years EARLIER. Now THAT is ridiculous enough to make modern peakers look normal.
