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oil and the PIIGS

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
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Re: oil and the PIIGS

Postby Tyler_JC » Wed 14 Apr 2010, 01:55:50

It's also the fault of the Germans for not consuming enough.

If they bought more feta cheese and olive oil, Greece wouldn't be stuck with such massive trade deficits. (The fact that I can't think of a single Greek manufactured product is a very bad sign.)
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Re: oil and the PIIGS

Postby IslandCrow » Wed 14 Apr 2010, 04:38:26

In the service industry Greece used to be a major power in shipping (I haven't seen recent figures so I am not sure where the current power lies, but my gut feeling is it is more in Asia).

The corrolation of oil in the energy mix with those countries that are currently in financial difficulty is something that should be explored more. To me it looks like one important factor among many others. Probably on its own it would not have caused a crisis, but when added to the other ingredients (debt expansion, massive building projects etc) it might have added its weight to cause the crisis-tipping point to be reached.

My guess is that the high oil use in the energy mix is a significant factor (with direct financial ramifications such as affecting trade balances etc), but I am unable to work out how large that factor is compared to other factors. [This whole modeling of likely causes of collapse is just so complicated.]
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Re: oil and the PIIGS

Postby shortonsense » Wed 14 Apr 2010, 12:21:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 't')hat's right. Keep telling yourselves it's all the fault of lazy trailer trash jes' liven beyond they means, and some bad bankers.

That way you don't have to face the truth. We. Have. Peaked.


Pretty horrifying in northern California? I'm in New Orleans this week....the tourists don't seem to have noticed in the least. And certainly I didn't use alot of gasoline to get here, being newly auto-efficient, and of course there were no shortages of fuel along the way either.

Amazing how well things are going, 5 years post peak, would be my take on the matter.

Of course, I avoided the mortgage nonsense entirely by not participating in the NINJA loan fascination like those who mistaken thought that real estate would only increase in value forever. Silly rabbits....

In the meantime, Tyler seems to have a good handle on how poorly a "respected" TOD poster can force a preconceived notion into primacy when no such primacy exists.
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Re: oil and the PIIGS

Postby Plantagenet » Wed 14 Apr 2010, 13:16:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Amazing how well things are going, 5 years post peak, would be my take on the matter.


Things do seem to be going rather well.

We are coming out of what some think is the worst recession since the great depression, we've got 10-17% unemployment (depending on whether you count "discouraged" job seekers), oil prices remain quite high, but the economy seems to be righting itself and spring is in the air. Yes oil production has been at a plateau for five years, but the Obama administration is putting big bucks into corn ethanol subsidies and other alternative fuels, so why worry?
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Re: oil and the PIIGS

Postby shortonsense » Wed 14 Apr 2010, 14:56:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Amazing how well things are going, 5 years post peak, would be my take on the matter.


Things do seem to be going rather well.

We are coming out of what some think is the worst recession since the great depression, we've got 10-17% unemployment (depending on whether you count "discouraged" job seekers), oil prices remain quite high, but the economy seems to be righting itself and spring is in the air. Yes oil production has been at a plateau for five years, but the Obama administration is putting big bucks into corn ethanol subsidies and other alternative fuels, so why worry?


Plenty of things to worry about. Oil availability just isn't one of them. Certainly some catastrophic event could do what catastrophic events usually do, but that has nothing to do with the scientific aspect of peak oil of course. in the meantime, I think the obvious signs of the transition are still proceeding quite nicely.

Structural changes in transportation infrastructure, removing the need for more crude and continuing a nice trend towards demand destruction and conservation rather than SUV nonsense:

http://www.brighterenergy.org/8657/news ... e-says-gm/

and of course long term, more utility oriented changes to provide more electricity as we go:

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/_a/project_ ... ern_calif/

Strikes me that everything, energy wise, is proceeding apace in a quite reasonable manner.
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Re: oil and the PIIGS

Postby davep » Wed 14 Apr 2010, 15:20:13

I really dread the day Shorty comes on here going 'OMG, the whole place is going to sh1t'!.

For that shall mean we are truly doomed.
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Re: oil and the PIIGS

Postby shortonsense » Wed 14 Apr 2010, 15:35:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'I') really dread the day Shorty comes on here going 'OMG, the whole place is going to sh1t'!.

For that shall mean we are truly doomed.


I am seriously concerned about the obesity problem in America. Does that count? :-D
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Re: oil and the PIIGS

Postby shortonsense » Wed 14 Apr 2010, 15:45:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')You still have not contradicted De Sousa, Hamilton, Rubin, et. al. with data, argument, new information.


Only someone hiding from society in the woods would think that new information was required. Tell you what...you objectively discuss anything ever written by Gordon Kaufman at the Sloan School, anything the USGS has published on resource appraisal over the past decade or so, explain coherently (aka while sober) why Duncan Clark was wrong in his book, "Battle for Barrels", and i'll take a look at whatever peer reviewed research your gang has published. The only caveat being, your experts actually have to have some training in geology, resource appraisal or assessments, maybe have a degree in an engineering expertise related to power, energy, transmission, distribution, SOMETHING relevant?

Talking heads running around the peak oil debate just clutter up the issue, so please pick one who at least KNOWS something about the topic rather than just propagating your usual brand of nonsense.
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Re: oil and the PIIGS

Postby shortonsense » Wed 14 Apr 2010, 18:38:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Talking heads running around the peak oil debate just clutter up the issue, so please pick one who at least KNOWS something about the topic rather than just propagating your usual brand of nonsense.
First convince us all that the obvious relationship between real productive work and energy consumption is illusory.


Of course I won't do that, it isn't my assertion to prove or disprove because I certainly didn't say it or ever imply it. I'm sure you enjoy your strawman barrage just please don't expect that any of the rest of us are so stupid as to fall for them.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Next show me how a society can WORK if increasingly its store of energy goes into procuring more energy, rather than towards productive WORK? (Cleveland, Oden, et. al.)


Do you actually know how to footnote something, or were you taught that it was okay to just say something ridiculous, throw out a random name, and hope no one will call you on it? Let me show you why...please reference where Cleveland or Oden EVER say that the sun is going to turn itself off in the near future and stop providing all the ENERGY which mankind, harvesting but a fraction of which hits the surface of this planet, has, does, and will use towards all sorts of productive work? Just one specific cite will do.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')When you are finished, describe what happens time and time again when energy expenditures account for more than 4% of GDP. 7% of GDP? (Hamilton et.al.)


Why should I? You've extended your argument now well outside of anything having to do with PIIGS, and still haven't responded to Tylers completely apropos comment on why oil dependency has little to do with the nonsense. Did you not read what he wrote? Were the words too big?
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Re: oil and the PIIGS

Postby shortonsense » Wed 14 Apr 2010, 19:07:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')horty, I actually bothered to check on your "references" What a joke.

Gordeon M. Kaufman's only connection to the peak oil debate is as a minor reference in a Micheal Lynch piece "The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources:Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers)" It defends Saudia Arabia reserve growth nonsense and pokes fun at Hubbert? What? Hubbert? Why here?


You really don't understand, do you? Peak oil is just the subset of a much larger debate, one involving many topics encompassing geology and economics and engineering and sociology and modelers and climate change. It isn't my job to cure your myopic view of the topic. Go read something. Talk to some of these people. Go to a technical conference sometime. Take out and actually READ a library book.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Your reference to Duncan Clark's "Battle for Barrels is truly bizarre. I looked him up also. He is one of you, a cornie.

USGS? Arctic oil?

This is about the financial crisis.


I didn't say you would UNDERSTAND any of the people or organizations I mentioned, only that you should pay more attention to someone other than talking heads. And this is po.com, not financial crisis.com, and certainly I'm not the only one who has noticed that peak oil hasn't had much of anything to do with ridiculous housing prices and ridiculous suckers who thought those prices could only increase.
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Re: oil and the PIIGS

Postby shortonsense » Fri 16 Apr 2010, 21:48:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')This is an important subject to me and many others. I am tired of you and Mos making light of it.


resource depletion is a serious topic...it just doesn't have anything much to do with the economic situation the PIIGS are in. Refusing to respond to Tylers completely reasonable comments and instead focusing on calling others names is your typical trollish behavior, please stop.
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Re: oil and the PIIGS

Postby sparky » Sat 17 Apr 2010, 16:42:18

.

"resource depletion is a serious topic...it just doesn't have anything much to do with the economic situation the PIIGS are in. "


Shortonsense , my original intent in creating this thread was to stimulate discussion precisely on the possibility and extend of such a relationship .

The persistent high price of oil is ominous for all economies

I believe that the soon to come switching of the oil market future could be the Peak Oil moment

.
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Re: oil and the PIIGS

Postby shortonsense » Sat 17 Apr 2010, 17:44:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')


Shortonsense , my original intent in creating this thread was to stimulate discussion precisely on the possibility and extend of such a relationship .


I understand completely. I think it is clear I stand in the "peak oil had nothing to do with it" camp. Peak oil in a causal relationship with much of anything is a tenuous concept at best.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '
')The persistent high price of oil is ominous for all economies


The real price of crude has trended higher since 1969, and has been persistently high for near decades long periods in the past. It was ominous then as well. It's always ominous.....so ominous that American Presidents have declared we would run out by the end of the 80's.

How many more years or decades of ominous do you believe will be required for the potential ominous to become another energy crisis like the 70's where we had actual shortages and rationing, versus all this make believe, always around the corner, can't quite see it yet but it'll surely be here soon, ominous-ness-es? (I shall await the grammar Nazi's(s?) to chime in as to exactly how I should rig that word ) 8O

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '
')I believe that the soon to come switching of the oil market future could be the Peak Oil moment
.


Peak oilers, or the oil resource depletion worriers in general, have been worrying about switching and running out and all sorts of ominous things since at least 1886. They used the phrase "temporary and vanishing trend" in reference to oil production back then....and here we are....124 years later....and you think we're finally getting around to soon? "Soon" doesn't even sound as enthusiastic as "temporary and vanishing"?
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