[tmazanec1]

I voted 2. Then it will either be 1 or 5...flip a coin.

[chris-h]

I voted for Worst ever economic depression.
And the US will not break . A very cruel military dictatorship will not let USA break.
Instead 10000 guantamo bays will be created in the USA.
And 50 million slaves sorry prisoners will work the fields .
Have you got credit card debt ? Now it is the best time to repay it.

[fossil_fuel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yavicleus', '
')...and that, is what I think we are in for. I don't think we'll go Mad Max. At worst, we'll go Sudan, Rwanda, or Ethiopia.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('arretium', 'R')emember these options are for POST PEAK. We are NOT predicting WHEN peak oil will occur, but RATHER, what will happen to the U.S. economy/political structure AFTER peak oil occurs.

KEY to poll data
#1 - Doom and Gloom - U.S. disevolves into fuedal lords, massive starvation, deaths. Effectively the dissolution of the U.S.
#2 - Worst economic depression - By here I mean the worst ever, worse than the 1930's. Significant loss of life, starvation, deaths, civil disorder, but peak oil does NOT cause the end of the U.S. political structure, however there definitely or most likely will be a complete economic collapse.
#3 - Economic depression - a significant drop in the U.S. economy, starvation, civil strife, but not the worst ever. Economy does stabalize, perhaps at a lower level, perhaps with continued growth in future (Option 2 without the complete economic collapse and less strife).
#4 - Multiple Recessions - As demand for oil exceeds supply, oil prices rise causing economic recession. Economy cools reducing demand for oil and causes oil prices to fall. As economy shows signs of life, demand again exceeds supply and the cycle repeats continuous. Until eventually one of the above or below options occur.
#5 - Cornucopian #1 - Free market prevails, markets shifts to new sources for energy based on unknown technology improvements and things continue on as they have been.
#6 - Free Market Energy Solution (Cornucopian #2) - Marketplace, with perhaps help from the Gov't, develops (not necessarily invents) new energy solutions. i.e. We move to Nuke Energy, and build electric cars/trains.
#7 - Baghdad Bob - "What peak oil? There is no peak oil." Essentially, there isn't a problem, at least for the next 20 years. We have plenty of oil. Oil doesn't peak in the foreseeable future.


So where do you sit? When do you see it all unfolding after peak oil? 1 Year after peak oil? 3 years? 5 years? 10 years? I couldn't conceivably add time limits to the poll question or we'd have an unlimited number of possibilities, so feel free to add your prognostication for how fast things unfold in your replies to this poll question.

I'll start with my own answer. Right now, I see #4 unfolding, and then disevolving into #2. The U.S. political system doesn't collapse, but the economic system does.

If your answer is also #4, please add what you think will be the eventual outcome (i.e., technology saves the day or we move in with Matt S.... j/k Matt...)

[MicroHydro]

Interesting that although this is an international board, posters from the USA usually assume "we" to mean US residents.

The glodal economy will go into scenario 4, then world trade will diminish, then scenarios become local.

Iceland might be the first to make it to scenario 6, likewise NW Europe (exclusive of Britain). New Zealand might eventually make it to scenario 6 too.

Some places (much of Africa) are already in scenario 1. Somalia was Mad Max land 15 years ago.

Britain, Japan, and Australia will go to scenario 3, but will hold together better than North America due to social cohesion.

North America aka "The Homeland" will go to scenario 2 overall with some places worse than others. Poor prognosis due to internal conflict. The former Soviet states will be in a similar position.

South Americia and mainland Asia will go to scenario 3 with a possibility of long term improvement as overshoot is corrected. Asia in particular has a history of going through famine without complete social and political collapse. Brazil also has potential to be better off than expected.

The Muslim world will go to scenario 2 at best due to severe overshoot. Regional caliphates will emerge, some better managed than others. When the oil is gone, they will all be backwaters.

[ForeignObserver]

My money's on 4, at least to start. 2 may follow on quickly, particularly if the dollar collapses.

Interesting that there wasn't a choice of international conflict which I suppose assumes that the US will exercise restraint at some point in the future and not try to grab every last drop or bully everyone it can.

The mad max scenario was a result of conflict so is that option is a vote for war ??

mad max



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell, in the strict sense, if you don't have such a culture, you don't have a nation. Or, more accurately, if you don't have a people that percieve each other as ethnoculturally related, you don't have a nation.

[DamienJasper]

I still like how everyone treats Lynch like the AntiChrist despite the fact that it's Campbell who keeps pushing his prediction date back. Fan-fucking-tabulous.

[arretium]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DamienJasper', 'I') still like how everyone treats Lynch like the AntiChrist despite the fact that it's Campbell who keeps pushing his prediction date back. Fan-fucking-tabulous.

[Tanada]

Things have changed, I am no longer as Optimistic about the future as I was when I wrote my above post. I think we have been going the wrong dorection for the last four years and I don't see anything happening to change that in any substantial way. All the changes I see are cosmetic at best, and illusory at worst.

[Ferretlover]

I picked #1. It will become so bad (comparing it to the current world), the global mindset will be barely recognisible(sp?) to those alive today; however, the decline will be so slow, everyone will have adjusted to the way things will be, and what we had but threw away or squandered will just be something in salvaged coffee-table books.

[mos6507]

I see something inbetween Mad Max and World Made By Hand, with the violence level varying greatly depending on the moral fiber and overshoot level of the region.

[Ferretlover]

Sounds about right to me.

[phaster]

Been pondering this vary topic for years, and IMHO what is going to happen depends very much in what part of the world you're in and what social/economic class you occupy.

The over all trend I see is downward because the amount of resources is not up to the overall demand.

Basically while skimming this thread, someone mentioned just look at the third world and with that statment I'd have to agree! The analog models I have for disparity within a society I'd say might be the philippines and cuba. Life in both these cultures IMHO mirror the global population as a whole because if you have the chance to visit either country and get to see the culture up close and personal one would see a vast gulf between those individuals, who are well educated and connected have the opportunity to live pretty good. I'd also say both these cultures are good analogs in that the vast majority of people in both these cultures suffer from a system where governance is highly biased toward those individuals what have educations and connections to begin with.

On this board there are lots of people who are looking at a doom and gloom, mad max lawless future, and I'd don't see that happening to the USA in my lifetime which hopefully is 60 years+. The reason I say this is because the USA has lots of things going for it despire the economic firestorm going on around the world.

On the plus side of the equation, the USA has a strong tradition of rule of law and a very innovative spirit, which allows small invative businesses to grow and produce goods and services which people want, without fear that a corrupt government official is going to try and muscle in and take everthing away. In the rest of the world, the barrier to entry for a small business is very much higher than it is in the USA.

On the down side of economic equation in the USA is the state of entitlement and ever increasing expectations. There also has been a mis-match between the skill sets needed to thrive in a world where there is diminishing resources per capita.

Hate to put in in blunt terms, but the average person anywhere in the world is basically a sheep that follows the herd and does not have deep thoughts or takes major economic initiative. Like a flock of sheep, I see the global population growing over my lifetime, BUT the general health of the flock of sheep in general will be very poor which will make the flock susceptible to sickness and disease. I'd say within my lifetime I fully expect some kind of global pandemic will occur because detoriating infrastructure which is overwhelmed or rather unfunded due to the declining economy.

Looking at the bigger picture but the analog models for past pandemics (such as Bubonic plague, or the 1918 flu out break), will not be sufficent to calculate the raw carnage thats possible in a world that is highly connected, with population densities never before seen.

http://virus.stanford.edu/uda/

For example the last major plague in 1918 killed upwards of 50 million people, I see the potental if something similar hit in the near future, that upwards of 750 million people around the world will not survive because of squalor caused by poor global economic conditions.

[mos6507]

I would like to think that most peakers have moved beyond the fear of living with less energy slaves. We've had the benefit of a long time to grieve in advance for what we're going to lose. Those who remain in denial to the last minute won't, and that's what I'm worried about. I can only hope that the depression forces some people towards lifestyle changes remotely resembling peak oil prep. Then maybe the gap between their current lifestyle and a sustainable one post-peak won't be quite so huge. The reports of backyard gardens starting up is encouraging. But at the same time, we also have reports of people jumping back into their SUVs. People change when they are pressured, and they revert to old habits when the pressure is relieved. Shock to trance. Few people make proactive changes to be ready for trouble they see brewing several years down the road.

[Plantagenet]

It really depends on the political policies of the U.S.

If our government ever wakes up and tries to prepare the US, it will be bad but we could be spared the worst. If our government continues to ignore the problem, then we'll get the worst.

[chris-h]

communism
inner party the usual suspects
official inflation figure for the next 10 million years will be close to 2%
debtor prisons

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I') would like to think that most peakers have moved beyond the fear of living with less energy slaves.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I') would like to think that most peakers have moved beyond the fear of living with less energy slaves.