[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think we should limit it to 50 since we are almost in february (and I'm already in).

I would like to make a friendly wager with VTsnowedin for a 1/2 pint of maple syrup to the one who's closest Dec. 21st.

We both make the stuff, so it shouldn't be too hard to come up with a half pint. What do you say?

[Revi]

I love pecans. A pint's a pound the world around, so ok.

Dec. 31st we'll have to see who is closest.

We'll swap addresses via PM then.

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') love pecans. A pint's a pound the world around, so ok.

Dec. 31st we'll have to see who is closest.

We'll swap addresses via PM then.

[Revi]

You are way ahead Peak Oiler, so I am planning on sending you a pint, but you never know...

It might hit $157 at some point this year. It doesn't look like it will be in the next few months, though.

It's going to be an interesting year.

Those Indians will be revving up their Tatas, and the Chinese will be popping the clutch in their Cherrys this spring, so that might get the oil market going again.

We'll see...

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', ' High Low Close average
83.18 74.54 74.71 79.34
High Low Close Hi DiffLow DifClose Overall
OilFinder2 88 66 77 4.82 8.54 2.29 15.65
SeaGypsy 92 68 87 8.82 6.54 12.29 27.65
kmann 95 58 75 11.82 16.54 0.29 28.65
PeakOiler 96.5 62.4 78.25 13.32 12.14 3.54 29
Gerben 101 65 78 17.82 9.54 3.29 30.65
TheAntiDoomer 96 58 73 12.82 16.54 1.71 31.07
shortonsense 95 55 75 11.82 19.54 0.29 31.65
eXpat 100 70 90 16.82 4.54 15.29 36.65
basil_hayden 105.83 65.17 84.19 22.65 9.37 9.48 41.5
Midessa 100 75 100 16.82 0.46 25.29 42.57
Cog 110 74 90 26.82 0.54 15.29 42.65
sparky 98 55 60 14.82 19.54 14.71 49.07
lateStarter 104 68 98 20.82 6.54 23.29 50.65
Comp_Lex 90 40 65 6.82 34.54 9.71 51.07
Nike62 95 40 80 11.82 34.54 5.29 51.65
TreeFarmer 88 38 63 4.82 36.54 11.71 53.07
jdmartin 118 70 90 34.82 4.54 15.29 54.65
Daniel_Plainvie 125.15 66.6 83.73 41.97 7.94 9.02 58.93
SteinarN 112 71 102 28.82 3.54 27.29 59.65
pup55 117.1 55.01 87.28 33.92 19.53 12.57 66.02
alpha480v 125 75 99 41.82 0.46 24.29 66.57
Arsenal 134 67 89 50.82 7.54 14.29 72.65
ColossalContrar 119 64.38102.76 35.82 10.16 28.05 74.03
TheDude 120 45 65 36.82 29.54 9.71 76.07
kublikhan 125 70 105 41.82 4.54 30.29 76.65
AlexdeLarge 88 35 40 4.82 39.54 34.71 79.07
obixman 120 64 110 36.82 10.54 35.29 82.65
rangerone314 152 72 90 68.82 2.54 15.29 86.65
IslandCrow 140 70 105 56.82 4.54 30.29 91.65
mcgowanjm 78.51 27.25 27.25 4.67 47.29 47.46 99.42
2cher 136 72 123 52.82 2.54 48.29 103.65
Repent 120 10 70 36.82 64.54 4.71 106.07
Carlhole 100 60 16.82 14.54 74.71 106.07
thylacine 150 60 100 66.82 14.54 25.29 106.65
Revi 157 62 97 73.82 12.54 22.29 108.65
careinke 135 65 125 51.82 9.54 50.29 111.65
davep 140 60 120 56.82 14.54 45.29 116.65
wisconsin_cur 138.95 32.16 55.12 55.77 42.38 19.59 117.74
eastbay 147 72 137 63.82 2.54 62.29 128.65
pablonite 169 69 113 85.82 5.54 38.29 129.65
Hawkcreek 168 69 119 84.82 5.54 44.29 134.65
vtsnowedin 152.5 51.25 117 69.32 23.29 42.29 134.9
EndOfGrowth 220 70 90 136.82 4.54 15.29 156.65
Bas 168 68 148 84.82 6.54 73.29 164.65
biofuel13 168.25 62.5162.47 85.07 12.04 87.76 184.87
Timo 193 71 109.82 3.54 74.71 188.07
Kez 198 70 198 114.82 4.54123.29 242.65
Armageddon 219 75 201 135.82 0.46126.29 262.57

')

Yes, it's still OF2. I think I have Rangerone's numbers fixed...

11 months of Chaos still left in the year, though.

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'Y')es, it's still OF2. I think I have Rangerone's numbers fixed...

11 months of Chaos still left in the year, though.

[pup55]

The laid back judge concurs. Since most of the fun has not happened yet, and since I managed to miss the entry, I declare that if he or she wins, he or she will get the full allotment of love and respect as well.....

[Midessa]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '
')
pup: If you include no_name's estimates, I think our data will match. You're the laid back judge. What do you think?

What does the reader panel think? Should no_name's estimates be included?

[pup55]

Yes, by all means.

Even though I will miss that little bit of love and respect, I hereby convey two weeks worth to him or her.

Perhaps I will earn some back later.

[PeakOiler]

Here's what I have as of March 9:



I'm beginning to think we've seen the low price for the year, but I certainly could be wrong.

[misterno]

Can you include mine as well?

High $100
Low $70

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'C')an you include mine as well?

High $100
Low $70

[mcgowanjm]

$29.75 by Xmas.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') relentless Garrett keep probing: to the NJ representative's question whether the Fed demanded that Lehman's regulator (whoever it may be since it was not the Fed, even though the Fed had implemented three separate liquidity stress tests, of which Lehman failed every single one) require that Lehman raise its liquidity, Bernanke once again gets an acute case of amnesia: "I don't have the exact information that you are asking."

[pup55]

pup55 the laid back judge says that misterno can get in if he or she wants to but we will only give him or her 3/4 of the amount of love and respect at the end if he or she wins.....Also, please provide a closing price.

I think there will be a lead change this week, in light of the current rally. We will have to wait for the numbers to come out. I think they usually publish them on Wednesday or Thursday, the EIA being kind of laid back like they are....

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'p')up55 the laid back judge says that misterno can get in if he or she wants to but we will only give him or her 3/4 of the amount of love and respect at the end if he or she wins.....Also, please provide a closing price.

I think there will be a lead change this week, in light of the current rally. We will have to wait for the numbers to come out. I think they usually publish them on Wednesday or Thursday, the EIA being kind of laid back like they are....

[TheDude]

All updated, thanks for keeping score, PeakOiler. Hey, what's your program? I use OpenOffice which reverses the placement for TAD/SOS and Repent/Carlhole, who, like on your sheet, have the same score. Probably just a matter of whether the names were sorted first or something.

Thanks for keeping note of who has revised or come in late, too - was confused by your rankings at first. OF2's score moves up with the revision - is he going to keep that up all year? It would be very much in the spirit of his much admired US Fed...

U.S. forecaster sees increased 2010 hurricane threat - Yahoo! News

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;The dissipating El Nino, along with the expected anomalously warm Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures, will lead to favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for hurricane formation and intensification," said Klotzbach.

The Colorado State University team has repeatedly cautioned that extended-range forecasts for hurricane activity are imprecise and can often miss the mark.

The university team originally expected the 2009 season to produce 14 tropical cyclones, of which seven would become hurricanes. But the season, which ended on November 30 and was the quietest since 1997, had only nine storms, including three hurricanes.

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'A')ll updated, thanks for keeping score, PeakOiler. Hey, what's your program? I use OpenOffice which reverses the placement for TAD/SOS and Repent/Carlhole, who, like on your sheet, have the same score. Probably just a matter of whether the names were sorted first or something.

Thanks for keeping note of who has revised or come in late, too - was confused by your rankings at first. OF2's score moves up with the revision - is he going to keep that up all year? It would be very much in the spirit of his much admired US Fed...

So, kind of a crap shoot. Is it me or are these platforms and refineries under the gun an awful lot in the last decade? How dire were forecasts in the past?

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', ' High Low Close average
86.79 71.19 86.79 79.22
High Low Close Hi DiffLow DifClose Overall
SeaGypsy 92 68 87 5.21 3.19 0.21 8.61
OilFinder2 88 66 77 1.21 5.19 9.79 16.19
eXpat 100 70 90 13.21 1.19 3.21 17.61
PeakOiler 96.5 62.4 78.25 9.71 8.79 8.54 27.04
basil_hayden 105.83 65.17 84.19 19.04 6.02 2.6 27.66
Gerben 101 65 78 14.21 6.19 8.79 29.19
Cog 110 74 90 23.21 2.81 3.21 29.23
Midessa 100 75 100 13.21 3.81 13.21 30.23
lateStarter 104 68 98 17.21 3.19 11.21 31.61
kmann 95 58 75 8.21 13.19 11.79 33.19
jdmartin 118 70 90 31.21 1.19 3.21 35.61
shortonsense 95 55 75 8.21 16.19 11.79 36.19
TheAntiDoomer 96 58 73 9.21 13.19 13.79 36.19
SteinarN 112 71 102 25.21 0.19 15.21 40.61
Daniel_Plainvie 125.15 66.6 83.73 38.36 4.59 3.06 46.01
Nike62 95 40 80 8.21 31.19 6.79 46.19
pup55 117.1 55.01 87.28 30.31 16.18 0.49 46.98
Arsenal 134 67 89 47.21 4.19 2.21 53.61
sparky 98 55 60 11.21 16.19 26.79 54.19
alpha480v 125 75 99 38.21 3.81 12.21 54.23
ColossalContrar 119 64.38102.76 32.21 6.81 15.97 54.99
no_name 127 62 81 40.21 9.19 5.79 55.19
Comp_Lex 90 40 65 3.21 31.19 21.79 56.19
kublikhan 125 70 105 38.21 1.19 18.21 57.61
TreeFarmer 88 38 63 1.21 33.19 23.79 58.19
obixman 120 64 110 33.21 7.19 23.21 63.61
rangerone314 152 72 90 65.21 0.81 3.21 69.23
IslandCrow 140 70 105 53.21 1.19 18.21 72.61
TheDude 120 45 65 33.21 26.19 21.79 81.19
AlexdeLarge 88 35 40 1.21 36.19 46.79 84.19
2cher 136 72 123 49.21 0.81 36.21 86.23
thylacine 150 60 100 63.21 11.19 13.21 87.61
Revi 157 62 97 70.21 9.19 10.21 89.61
careinke 135 65 125 48.21 6.19 38.21 92.61
davep 140 60 120 53.21 11.19 33.21 97.61
misterno 100 70 13.21 1.19 86.79 101.19
pablonite 169 69 113 82.21 2.19 26.21 110.61
Carlhole 100 60 13.21 11.19 86.79 111.19
Repent 120 10 70 33.21 61.19 16.79 111.19
eastbay 147 72 137 60.21 0.81 50.21 111.23
mcgowanjm 78.51 27.25 27.25 8.28 43.94 59.54 111.76
Hawkcreek 168 69 119 81.21 2.19 32.21 115.61
vtsnowedin 152.5 51.25 117 65.71 19.94 30.21 115.86
wisconsin_cur 138.95 32.16 55.12 52.16 39.03 31.67 122.86
EndOfGrowth 220 70 90 133.21 1.19 3.21 137.61
Bas 168 68 148 81.21 3.19 61.21 145.61
biofuel13 168.25 62.5162.47 81.46 8.69 75.68 165.83
Timo 193 71 106.21 0.19 86.79 193.19
Kez 198 70 198 111.21 1.19111.21 223.61
Armageddon 219 75 201 132.21 3.81114.21 250.23

')

Yes, it's SeaGypsy. OF2 had a good three months on top of the leaderboard though.

Peakoiler is correct, I am using the sum of the differences of the high, low and close. Yeah, I know that the close is rather cheesy because during mid-year it is heavily weighted toward the current price but it did not seem to affect the final outcome too much the last couple of years as far as the overall standings were concerned.

You are also correct that if you do not put in a closing price, the spreadsheet assumes a price of "zero", and as you will remember two years ago this allowed Threadbear to be one of the top finishers in the contest we ran the second half of the year because when the price dropped to 33, "zero" turned out to be one of the closest guesses....

I am thinking I am going to be in the top 10 again pretty soon.

[sparky]

.
Any juice in doing it by quarter ,that's a pretty common unit of time in financial stats
I know it could be a bother , but it's good fun and a year is a long time

It would also give more space for the latecomers
.

[Cog]

Unfortunately, I think we have a situation in the Gulf happening now that is apt to change to leader standings in a radical way.