[eXpat]

Washington considers a decline of world oil production as of 2011
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S. Department of Energy admits that “a chance exists that we may experience a decline” of world liquid fuels production between 2011 and 2015 “if the investment is not there”, according to an exclusive interview with Glen Sweetnam, main official expert on oil market in the Obama administration.

This warning on oil output issued by Obama’s energy administration comes at a time when world demand for oil is on the rise again, and investments in many drilling projects have been frozen in the aftermath of the tumbling of crude prices and of the financial crisis.

Glen Sweetnam, director of the International, Economic and Greenhouse Gas division of the Energy Information Administration at the DoE, does not say that investments will not be “there”. Yet the answer to the issue of knowing when, where and in which quantities additional sources of oil should be put on-stream remains widely “unidentified” in the eyes of the most prominent official analyst on energy inside the Obama administration.

The DoE dismisses the “peak oil” theory, which assumes that world crude oil production should irreversibly decrease in a nearby future, in want of suffisant fresh oil reserves yet to be exploited. The Obama administration of Energy supports the alternative hypothesis of an “undulating plateau”. Lauren Mayne, responsible for liquid fuel prospects at the DoE, explains : “Once maximum world oil production is reached, that level will be approximately maintained for several years thereafter, creating an undulating plateau. After this plateau period, production will experience a decline.”

[SilentRunning]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he DoE dismisses the “peak oil” theory, which assumes that world crude oil production should irreversibly decrease in a nearby future, in want of suffisant fresh oil reserves yet to be exploited. The Obama administration of Energy supports the alternative hypothesis of an “undulating plateau”. Lauren Mayne, responsible for liquid fuel prospects at the DoE, explains : “Once maximum world oil production is reached, that level will be approximately maintained for several years thereafter, creating an undulating plateau. After this plateau period, production will experience a decline.”

[sparky]

.
there is method in the blindness , it's true and will be for a long while that production could be increased by throwing trillions for the extra barrels
but Peak Oil is about " natural " economics , not government sinking in debt to support production

.

[Plantagenet]

First Obama's DoE expert on oil radically changes his past position and essentially comes out and endorses the concept of an imminent Peak in Oil production.

Then Obama announces he supports opening up offshore zones in Virginia, Florida, etc. to oil drilling.

Looks like the Obama administration just realized the oil is running out, and shifted towards a "drill baby drill" energy policy.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his huge U.S liquid fuel production increase should be achieved through what Glen Sweetnam described as “the ethanol ramp-up” during the round-table, according to its
transcript.

This “ethanol ramp-up”, initiated during the Bush administration, may stand for even more than the 1.8 Mbpd increasing expected by the DoE, as U.S crude oil extractions have been decreasing for four decades, and because there are no fresh oil reserves of significant scale coming on-stream in Alaska or elsewhere in the ‘Lower 50s’.

One-quarter of all the grain crops grown in the United States already ends up as biofuel, according to an analysis of 2009 figures from the US Department of Agriculture published by the Earth Policy Institute, a Washington ecologist think-tank.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he prospects of the Washington Department of Energy on oil now sound far more pessimistic than the kind of analysis the DoE used to release not so long ago. In 2004, under the Bush administration, the DoE published a study in which oil production was supposed to be able to rise strongly at least until 2037.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SilentRunning', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he DoE dismisses the “peak oil” theory, which assumes that world crude oil production should irreversibly decrease in a nearby future, in want of suffisant fresh oil reserves yet to be exploited. The Obama administration of Energy supports the alternative hypothesis of an “undulating plateau”. Lauren Mayne, responsible for liquid fuel prospects at the DoE, explains : “Once maximum world oil production is reached, that level will be approximately maintained for several years thereafter, creating an undulating plateau. After this plateau period, production will experience a decline.”

[Arthur75]

By the way just read the transcript of the conference (April 2009) that above blog post link to :

http://www.eia.doe.gov/conference/2009/ ... ssion3.pdf

and the slides :

http://www.eia.doe.gov/conference/2009/ ... eetnam.pdf

One really "impressive" thing in these slides is the US increasing their all liquids production by 1.8 million barrel/day from 2007 to 2015, and from the transcript, it appears that this would come from unconventional, biofuels ethanol in particular (as also said above):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Mr. González-Pier: Glen, I have a question about the United States production forecast.
Mr. Sweetnam: Yes, yes.
Mr. González-Pier: Where is the extra production in the U.S. coming from?
Mr. Sweetnam: So then U.S…extra production is coming from…
Mr. González-Pier: Non-conventional.
Mr. Sweetnam: … the deepwater (Gulf of Mexico) and also from enhanced oil recovery. And then biofuels because this is sort of total liquids. So it’s those three components.
Mr. Knapp: And maybe a little oil shale.
Mr. Sweetnam: Yes, right,…

[sparky]

.

Well a bit of double-speak is the usual way for a public servant to send signals while sticking to the scrip the EIA , like the IEA has internal variance about the world production prospect
there is plenty of indices that we are around the peak or rather the bumpy sloping plateau

the present economic difficulties are confusing the numbers while hiding the crisis
no point in stirring the good folks , governments now need rosy news .
and explorers need plenty of money which is not that much forthcoming

.

[TheDude]

Ethanol Percentage Of Corn Crop Used For Ethanol. RFS goals are for conventional ethanol to be a smaller percentage from here on out, to be supplemented first by Advanced biofuels, i.e., sugar cane ethanol - courtesy recently revised definition of this term - i.e., we will import more, presumably after abandoning tariffs - then down the road by more cellulosic, assuming Operation Strawgrass can get off the ground in the first place. Corn, aka "Renewable" biofuel, peaks at 15k mg in 2015 and stays at that level thereafter - ca. 55% of the total crop.

Oh bloated bureaucracy, will you ever learn?

[eXpat]

From the original article
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S DoE expects that the largest increase of production will need to come from within the United States : a 1.8 Mbpd boost over 8 years (from 2007 to 2015) that would equal to more than a quarter of the present U.S oil production. Since the early 70’s, U.S oil production has been steadily plummeting.

[mos6507]

This article is being overplayed by peakers. I really don't think it's the open confession of peak oil that it's being sold to be. This is coming and going without making its way out of the doomer echo chamber (heatingoil.com, countercurrents.org, etc...). The Richard Branson stuff made it further up the flagpole.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'T')his article is being overplayed by peakers. I really don't think it's the open confession of peak oil that it's being sold to be. This is coming and going without making its way out of the doomer echo chamber (heatingoil.com, countercurrents.org, etc...). The Richard Branson stuff made it further up the flagpole.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '.')...all the money in the world still won't create another Saudi Arabia.

[sparky]

.
Plantagenet , the ice might still be there but no matter , they will drill for it in a blizzard

Sixstrings is right , a massive amount of public money spend on further research can be expected when we hit the crest of the production ridge
this also would be tax breaks , ecological exemption , funny financial vehicles for joint partnerships
this kind of things


.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')orn, aka "Renewable" biofuel, peaks at 15k mg in 2015 and stays at that level thereafter - ca. 55% of the total crop

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '.')...all the money in the world still won't create another Saudi Arabia.

[AirlinePilot]

Im finding this all rather bizarre just about now. We have climbing oil prices in light of good storage numbers and significant US demand cutbacks. We have several slightly fringe energy sites/blogs calling BS on OPEC/Saud reserve estimates. We have some recent articles talking about blatant obfuscation in the energy industry. By all normal and "credible" sources there IS NO PROBLEM with oil other than speculators!

We have a political situation which we have not seen since Carter's days in which a progressive/socialist administration seems poised to railroad as many programs through during its tenure as possible. Now they come out and say..hey! Lets Drill man!! It will be good for all and set us up on the road to energy independence!

We know here that never happens..but do they? I think yes, they understand the ramifications of what Hirsch found. They know things we dont..like how much oil does King Saud really think he can extract and what the probable production picture will be in ten years. They are now panicking as reality sets in..or maybbe not..could be all political baloney too. It just sems bizarre right now.

So..they start softballing what most of us have come to know as probably the defining crisis modern man will face...and my guess is they will screw it up just like everything else they have tried to "fix" over the last 30 years.

No real energy policy to date..no plan A ..which should have started 25 years ago...and now the wolf is at the door. Bizarro world IS arriving. I'm personally prepared to witness things we have never seen before in the United States and Im ready for my Government to completely screw this up twelve ways to Sunday resulting in the mess we all know will come as they try desperately to hide the real horror of decline without mitigation from an unprepared and unwilling to change populace.

This is just the beginning. Its going to be fun to watch!

Of course this also could be nothing more than posturing in a political game to pass a massive Cap and Trade plan too. Interesting times!

[TheAntiDoomer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is just the beginning. Its going to be fun to watch!

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')orn, aka "Renewable" biofuel, peaks at 15k mg in 2015 and stays at that level thereafter - ca. 55% of the total crop