[Annatar]

The 20th century is littered with examples of countries in turmoil being cursed by tyrants. Russia had Joseph Stalin. Germany had Adolf Hitler. China had Mao Zedong. Cambodia had Pol Pot.

If Peak Oil causes stagflation, hyperinflation, depression and/or ever-increasing crime and unemployment rates; then people will clamour for order and security. The soil is ripe for a charismatic leader to rise to the occasion, offering simple solutions to complex problems. Too often, the cure ends up worse than the disease.

"The Jewish Bankers are responsible for hyperinflation."

"The Environmentalists won't let us drill for oil or build new refineries."

"The oil companies are making obscene profits at our expense."

"The abortionists, atheists, adulterers, feminists, gays, occultists and other liberals are corrupting our country"

And so on.

My theory is that it's easier for people to leave responsibility to higher authority figures than to think for themselves.

What type of dictatorship would a post-peak country have? Would it be Stalinist, like North Korea today and Cambodia under Pot Pot? Would it be theocratic, like Saudi Arabia today and Afghanistan under the Taliban? Which countries are the most susceptive to tyranny and which extremist groups are waiting for the right conditions to become popular enough to sweep into power? Should George Orwell's Nineteen-Eighty-Four be renamed Twenty-Forty-Four?

Living in a North Korean- or Taliban-style regime is a nightmare for me. Living in a Pol Pot-type regime is worse.

[venky]

I think it was interesting to note that among the attendees at the recent oil depletion conference in Scotland was Nick Griffin, the leader of the BNP.
Apparently the far right has identified peak oil as one of the most important issues of the coming years and perhaps see an opportunity for themselves to move into the mainstream as a result of the turmoil resulting from a post peak environment.

With the advent of the economic turmoil as a result of peak oil, conservatism of today with its cornucopian ideals and rigit adherence to the free market as solution to the world's problems will stand totally discredited. I dont the Liberals, though marginally better will stand to gain politically. The far right, in my opinion could probably be one of the biggest winners in such a scenario.

[linlithgowoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')The abortionists, atheists, adulterers, feminists, gays, occultists and other liberals are corrupting our country

[ONASIS]

Perhaps a Technological 'Underclass' will develop Globally -i.e.

1. Knowledge is Power

2. In the land of the Blind the Man with One Eye is King !

3. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing

4. He who owns the Gold makes all the rules.

I guess the technological infrastructure is in place (in the developed world at least) to make technology the 'opium of the masses' and enable an aimless PO society to get a 'virtual' high through cyber sex, virtual reality, etc. (hence the demise of physical activity).

Thus, technology may be used as a passive control mechanism and, over time, a means of 'conditioning' society into new patterns of behaviour + new social roles - perhaps akin to Adious Huxleys 'Brave New World' where the chemical 'soma' is used instead.

One should note how Prof. Kevin Warwick, of the department of Cybernetice at Reading University, U.K., has created a simple human / machine interface to enable a computer to directly stimulate the human nervous system via an implanted silicon chip !

The 'Central' Government system will be able to maintain this social order as they will have the infrastructure in place - e.g. Legal system, police, hospitals, education, etc. to 'order' the masses into 'Productive' labours for which they will be rewarded -

The whole national economy could be 'state' managed - i.e. a command economy and productive labour would involve working for the state, perhaps in one of the branches listed above -

All citizens could be paid in 'electronic credits' directly to a biometrically implanted chip - which would thus create a 'cashless' society with no 'black economy' or hidden assets + the potential to eventually redistribute all private wealth through high property / estate taxes / death duties / etc- hence the 'state' would have direct control of all factors of production.

Thus, this system would not have to be like North Korea inits brutality and would give its occupants some semblance of control over their destiny within the system as it would possess the veneer of technological progress, political correctness, humanity, etc.

Remarkably, the residents of this system would not consciously be able to detect their slide into serfdom as the command economy would be seen as the 'saviour' of the 'Nation'

Indeed, the 'State' could adopt a policy of national self sufficiency and non reliancy on imports or economic aid - i.e. Autarky - similar to the Albanian Model of post wwII years - i.e. Nationalism.

Who knows, over time with the advent of genetic engineering, perhaps members of society could be selectively bred for different roles, e.g. intelligence, etc., and eventually all references to the past could be 'erased' or re-written to show how uncivilised the 'hydrocarbon' age was as compared to this 'Golden Age' of enlightenment.

What of the underdeveloped world like Latin America, ex-ussr, Asia, etc.??

Well without technology and effective central control they would decay into various stages of anarchy with no authority from the 'nation state' - e.g. Liberia or Somalia.

In those cases communities would fragment into 'tribes' each of which would strive to defend their economic or social interests by using whatever technological means were at their disposal from slingshots to jet fighters ! These would be wars of attrition with the 'winner' takes all -

There would be major fragmentation of societies, e.g. Yugoslavia / Ussr scale of division along socio-economic or ethnic lines.

However, there are Global Institutions in place, like the EU, NAFTA, UN, etc., which may be able to co-ordinate humanity during the PO phase and lessen its impact on them, perhaps by bringing more alternative power + nuclear sources on line in anticipation of this new age of enlightenment ??

Best Wishes,
ONASIS -

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', '
')
this part is true though. Bunch of slack jawed liberal beardy wearing sandal loving faggots.

[Ebyss]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', '
')
this part is true though. Bunch of slack jawed liberal beardy wearing sandal loving faggots.

[katkinkate]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Iron_Fist_Consumerist', '.')....What type of dictatorship would a post-peak country have? .....

[vegasmade]

Like I've posted elsewhere, V. I. Lenin noted in Imperialism, The Highest Stage of Capitalism, globalism creates inequality. These inequalities, will lead man directly to communism. The problem lies in the current examples of socialism. Men, according to Machiavelli, are controlled by ego. So the man at the head of any totalitarian regime, will think only in terms of his own advantages. In theory, Marxism is the best form of government. The whole - to each his own need, from each his own ability, really levels the playing field. And if one must make the descisions for the whole, only the innocence of a child can be relied upon. It's the Queen Amidala idea from Episode 1. Unfortunately, our founding fathers guaranteed ego based descisions by adding the 35 year old provision to the constitution. If you elected a kid, provided an unbiased core of advisors, and presented all possible solutions/outcomes, I guarantee the world would be very different. Instead we've gotten Stalinist paranoia, and dubya's divine lunacy.

[pea-jay]

I could buy an initial trending towards fascism for the US. Over the long haul though, the energetic burdens of maintain this level of control of such a large territory as the US will prove to be too much. Eventually the US and other large countries will devolve to much smaller regions of some form of control, be it a state or bio-region. Some may to be more enlightened and better off than today, while others will continue to fall to a level of absolute misery. Local leadership in my opinion will prove to be more crucial than national leadership in the long term. Will make the difference between a slow (regional) decline and outright anarchy.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leaf', 'F')amine will be common even amoung the rich nations of today. They will have a problem feeding their own people. This has always been the case if you read say the last 1,000 yrs of European History. France, Germany The Irish all had famines and poverty from time to time.

[The_Virginian]

Onasis seems correct if the decline is managable.

Leaf seems correct should the decline be steep.

[Zentric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leaf', '*') Nations who let many immigrants into their lands for the past 50 years..They will likely turn into the Balkans-Bosnia's of tommorow. Nations who have been too use to easy living for the past 60 years...ie USA, Canada, Germany, france, Britian to name a few.

[Jake_old]

Wow kochevnik, I was going to start a thread about this kind of subject, I clicked and was a little disappointed it had already bee thought of, don't know why.

That response has given me the reassurance I was after, for the time being at least.

I'm surrounded by all kinds of different cultures, including a naughty boys house just a little distance up the road.

I prefer the keep my head down approach to the join a Fascist nutjob group who would allow me to be in their tribe.

Yes, that is the way forward.

[julianj]

err...I think linlithgow was joking. That's how it came across to me.

Need always to use emoticons.

I'm not sure, Leaf, that you quite understand the BNP. What's their policy on opinionated Ukrainians - I don't know for sure but I think the headbutt would be high on the agenda

They are a bunch of neo-nazi thugs, with scarcely a brain between them. That doesn't mean they won't make capital out of stigmatising "foreigners" when the crunch comes, but their capacity for presenting solutions to the very real problems of PO is minimal.

Here's Searchlight, a British antifascist site. There are some interesting articles about the resurgence of the right and what to do about it.

Searchlight Magazine

[I_Like_Plants]

When things get tough, Labour will be telling white Brits all about how they must learn to "get along" and will look the other way when they're slaughtered, just like weak governments allowed to happen in Africa. BNP will say OK, here's a rifle and we'll teach you how to shoot it, and since it's fight or die you might as well fight and hopefully the invaders die and you get to live.

Keep your head down and be a good farmer, artisan, etc is a great idea and the preferred way, but when white brits are being attacked and killed in the streets (and the subways) now, how will it be when things get really tough?

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', '
')Keep your head down and be a good farmer, artisan, etc is a great idea and the preferred way, but when white brits are being attacked and killed in the streets (and the subways) now, how will it be when things get really tough?