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THE Plunge Protection Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

THE Plunge Protection Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 07 May 2005, 00:31:26

http://www.libertyforum.org/showflat.ph ... t293595834

any thoughts or knowledge on this topic ?
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Unread postby jaws » Sat 07 May 2005, 02:30:53

The author makes it sound as though the fed is gambling by buying futures options. Anything the fed does is zero-risk for the fed since it can create money at will to settle its liabilities. All that happens as a consequence is further depreciation of the US dollar, which is their policy anyway.

The plunge protection team buys up assets when the market panics by adding money to the money supply. If the market goes back up, they can sell back the assets and withdraw the money from the money supply. If the market doesn't go back up, the bigger money supply creates a good old keynesian stimulus to prevent a recession. It's win/win!!!!
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Heh..

Unread postby UIUCstudent01 » Sat 07 May 2005, 06:15:17

I have no trust in the liberty forum or worldvisionportal. My thoughts is that even if it's true - it is surrounded by so much crap that is almost like you MUST distrust it.
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Unread postby smiley » Sat 07 May 2005, 07:15:29

I think Jaws is correct. What they do is buy up assets when they are being dumped and hence preventing a plunge. and selling them when the market rises again.

There was pretty strong evidence of such action in the run up to the Bush election. For the first time in its history the dow didn't have a single 1% down day in a year.

Every time the Dow was down, a large trader appeared and singlehandedly pushed the Dow just above its opening level. It was really freakish to see the dow ending at +0.01% not once, not twice, but over 15 times. On the other hand the rises were also modest. We haven't seen a single 1% up day either. Presumably that trader uses those days to dump. Immediately after the election the volatility returned and in the past weeks we have seen several 1% days.

I think that is very good evidence that it is possible for a single large entity to control the market. However whether that was the PPT or a group or influential banks or investors with a political motive is pure speculation.

I think the question should not be whether the PPT exists, but whether they are acting or have been acting. Here's some info on the PPT from a more credible source.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/bu ... plunge.htm

[edit typo]
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Unread postby jaws » Sat 07 May 2005, 18:47:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', 'I') think Jaws is correct. What they do is buy up assets when they are being dumped and hence preventing a plunge. and selling them when the market rises again.

There was pretty strong evidence of such action in the run up to the Bush election. For the first time in its history the dow didn't have a single 1% down day in a year.

Every time the Dow was down, a large trader appeared and singlehandedly pushed the Dow just above its opening level. It was really freakish to see the dow ending at +0.01% not once, not twice, but over 15 times. On the other hand the rises were also modest. We haven't seen a single 1% up day either. Presumably that trader uses those days to dump. Immediately after the election the volatility returned and in the past weeks we have seen several 1% days.

[edit typo]
That would explain this:
Image

The big pre-election rally correlates almost perfectly with a dollar devaluation against the euro. This is a dead giveaway of new money being used to buy securities (the new money putting the currency market out of balance and driving down the price of the dollar).
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Unread postby merecat » Sat 07 May 2005, 22:20:26

This is incredible stuff, makes you realise just how hoky and unstable the whole fiat money system really is.

One can imagine a scenario whereby the dollar becomes grossly over inflated, a worthless rag if you will, but the faith is still kept alive because the fed are doing all kinds of crazy string pulling market scams like a bunch of carpet bagging grifters. Yes... one can imagine.
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Unread postby savethehumans » Sun 08 May 2005, 00:11:13

A house of cards might have more stability! :roll:
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Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 08 May 2005, 00:48:50

no kidding. things could crash very easily. if not for the ppt things may have already crashed. many very interesting things on the horizon. these next 2-3 years will be very interesting for planet earth and humankind.
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Did the Markets get "Plunge Protected" yesterday?

Unread postby pea-jay » Fri 09 Jun 2006, 03:52:57

Though I dont obsess or even track the markets, I do pay somewhat attention to trading charts from time to time. June 8th's trading day sticks out at me somewhat.

Image

The markets were in the process of their continued downward trend initiated almost a month ago. Over the past few days, the pace had picked up and today was looking to become an all-out rout when out of the blue midmorning the market took off and never so much as looked back, with the dow completely erasing its 171 point loss and the S&P rebounding above yesterdays close

Did investors get a warm sense of comfort when the president anounced that economic growth would increase faster than expected?

Or were we plunge protected?

I am not sure what to make of that concept to begin with but even some mainstream papers like the washington post have covered the existence of the "plunge protection team" that seeks to prevent panicked selling on the markets from ensuing.

So, what do you think. Was the market monkeyed with yesterday?
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Re: Did the Markets get "Plunge Protected" yesterd

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 09 Jun 2006, 04:17:50

Well, I have been trading for twenty years, and watching the charts, and those type of movements are observable all the time. Markets tend to get overbought and oversold. The fundamentals are never so clear to so many observers and commentators as when we are at the absolute highs or absolute bottoms. That is when the world makes the most sense and why we are there is patently obvious (i.e. the highs of $70.85 in the WTI immediately after Katerina).

Why do markets suddenly change direction? Because at every price there is a buyer and a seller and therefore a 50/50 chance the market will go up or down from each discrete price. Once the last seller has sold, the next seller's price is higher, and so on as buying momentum comes in on bargain hunting and contrarians take speculative longs as well as shorts close their positions with a profit. Soon the number of buyers outnumbers the number of willing sellers and the price moves higher.

But by the way, the HKMA did intervene by buying then Heng Seng during the Asian Crisis in 1997 when it was plunging, and it worked. So it can be done, but it was very transparent. Usually intervention only works when it is supported by the underlying fundamentals, and is contrarian to the market's overall mood, and therefore panics sellers into covering shorts or vice versa as the case may be. Part of that is acheived by communicating through the intervention to other market participants that the central bank is indeed buying or selling, so they do not want to keep it a secret but get more mileage by making it public.

I have seen central bank direct intervention in foreign exchange markets, but I have never seen the so-called plunge protection team in action. It seems to me that it is a fantasy. Markets are pretty transparent and market players would notice G-men on the trading floor. Also, with changes in Administration would not Democrats be willing to spill the beans about the PPT now that they would like to discredit Republicans? Or is Bill Clinton sworn to secrecy and likewise Hillary?
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Re: Did the Markets get "Plunge Protected" yesterd

Unread postby Doly » Fri 09 Jun 2006, 04:29:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')I have seen central bank direct intervention in foreign exchange markets, but I have never seen the so-called plunge protection team in action.


I remember I read something somewhere on the lines that after the eighties crash there was some system put in place to protect the market from serious plunges. Do you know anything about this?
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Re: Did the Markets get "Plunge Protected" yesterd

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 09 Jun 2006, 04:38:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')I have seen central bank direct intervention in foreign exchange markets, but I have never seen the so-called plunge protection team in action.


I remember I read something somewhere on the lines that after the eighties crash there was some system put in place to protect the market from serious plunges. Do you know anything about this?


Each market is slightly different, but the exchanges themselves have implemented procedures to curb programme trading during severely volatile sessions, which was part of the cause of the crash in 1987. A normal down day turned into a major blood bath as programme traders started generating automatic sell orders, triggering stop losses and margin calls that had to be met and if not the long positions liquidated, etc. A vicious cycle.

Now interday moves are generally limited to X percent and then they close down, allow brokerage firms to make margin calls, etc. and then they open again for another session, but again with a limit of X percent to give the market a chance to cool off. Also, as so many players are now hedge funds, they need time to draw on credit lines in an emergency. That takes time and at those times exactly are when credit officers are very nervous and would like to cut exposure.

I would be lying if I said it was not a problem that central regulators are seriously looking at. They would like better oversight over hedge funds or at least more details from the banks and non-bank financial institutions that deal with them.
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Re: Did the Markets get "Plunge Protected" yesterd

Unread postby bobbyald » Fri 09 Jun 2006, 04:56:56

I’ve heard that “unknown” buyers turn up in the futures market on days like this with large buy orders. These orders cannot be filled fully at the lower price and so they have to pay more to get the order filled. This is not the way any institution would operate – they would buy in smaller blocks over a period of time.

This has been noticed by many market watchers and believe there many be some truth in it but have not seen any real evidence
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Re: Did the Markets get "Plunge Protected" yesterd

Unread postby greenworm » Sun 11 Jun 2006, 16:23:41

What baffles me is the timing of such moves. Take thursday for example, all of the gold mining stocks jumped at precisely noon and that seems reasonable since they correlate somewhat to the commodity which began a major move upward at this time. However, when I start checking out what other sectors are doing it gets downright bizarre. Indian stocks (ttm) and (redf) same time, oil stocks (chk) and (eca) same thing, biotech (celg) and (dna) same thing, aerospace (ba) and (lmt) just like the others, heck I could spend the rest of the day finding examples. Now what are the chances that dam near everything made an uptick at the same time? :lol: Makes free markets look like an oxymoron don't it. :lol: I guess you could argue that a couple of stocks jumped at this time due to the lack of volume being that it was lunchtime, but that doesn't seem plausible to me due to the sheer number of stocks that exhibited this behavior. It is either a plunge protection team (seems reasonable since all the aforementioned stocks aren't heading north) or else a coordinated effort by hedge funds using a timed event.
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Re: Did the Markets get "Plunge Protected" yesterd

Unread postby pedalling_faster » Sun 11 Jun 2006, 22:03:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('greenworm', 'W')hat baffles me is the timing of such moves. Take thursday for example, all of the gold mining stocks jumped at precisely noon and that seems reasonable since they correlate somewhat to the commodity which began a major move upward at this time. However, when I start checking out what other sectors are doing it gets downright bizarre. Indian stocks (ttm) and (redf) same time, oil stocks (chk) and (eca) same thing, biotech (celg) and (dna) same thing, aerospace (ba) and (lmt) just like the others, heck I could spend the rest of the day finding examples. Now what are the chances that dam near everything made an uptick at the same time?


the timing does appear coordinated & non-coincidental.

about 3 weeks ago, the week that gold & silver slid, the week of May 15 to 19, there was an announcement that "trading curbs were put in place", i believe, on Wednesday of that week, one of the days when the Dow lost 100+ points.
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Re: Did the Markets get "Plunge Protected" yesterd

Unread postby Sunspot » Mon 12 Jun 2006, 00:04:52

I'm convinced I see the same phenomenon in the oil markets, but of course in reverse, to keep those prices down. I watch the oil prices every day pretty much - yes, I also slow down and look at car crashes - and I see prices drop at odd times. A little while ago, just after we passed the $70 mark again, oil had strong upward momentum. The Wed stats came out, and they were all slightly negative that week. Oil immediately took off, gaining about a buck in something like an hour. But then the price dropped about a dollar - in ten minutes! Now how could everyone change their minds that quickly? Very suspicious, and I see other events which don't seem normal given the circumstances and lack of anything significant happening in the world. Could be some of that missing $3 trillion Ruppert and others point out, I suppose...
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Re: Did the Markets get "Plunge Protected" yesterd

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 12 Jun 2006, 18:14:50

This topic is interesting because about six months ago or so I read that the rebels in Colombia had succeeded in stopping much of the production of marijuana in that country, or was it that the Colombian gov had stopped rebel prod? The PPT is supposedly run by illicit drug money being invested in the markets via the CIA traders. Isn't it interesting that on the heels of reduced Marijuana production and turmoil at the CIA the market has plunged. Yes, there are other reasons for the slump as well, its just that the supposed resources for holding it back are limited right now.
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Re: Did the Markets get "Plunge Protected" yesterd

Unread postby Marklar » Mon 12 Jun 2006, 20:03:03

ive read that the ppt is there to help boost investor confidence incase of a "crash"

What I read was that they PPT has never been put in action but if the market were to fall over 500 points and they closed the markets for 20-30 minutes then the PPT would likely make their move.

As far as "them/they" manipulating oil prices downwards. No. Not yet. If they do it you'll know it. If/When they do it they'll get the job done. It wont fall just a $1. It'll be in a steady decline over several days/weeks.
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Re: Did the Markets get "Plunge Protected" yesterd

Unread postby MattSavinar » Mon 12 Jun 2006, 21:12:00

They even have a home page =)

http://www.plungeprotectionteam.com/

Best,

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Re: Did the Markets get "Plunge Protected" yesterd

Unread postby mekrob » Mon 12 Jun 2006, 21:19:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'T')hey even have a home page =)

http://www.plungeprotectionteam.com/

Best,

Matt


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