by Sixstrings » Sat 13 Mar 2010, 15:14:41
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I') don't want to change the topic of the thread, but it's already been discussed here that the Cuban example is not the perfect case study of peak oil mitigation that it's so often made out to be. A certain amount of spin and obfuscation was applied to Power of Community. I don't want to downplay what they accomplished, but I think people's expectations for what that approach can do should be extremely cautious.
I dunno Mos, I really think Cuba is one of the best examples of what post-peak living might be like. Just think about it.. before Castro, they more or less mirrored the United States (except they were actually even more extremely capitalist). You saw lots of new cars down in Havana, swanky hotels and casinos, lots of business going on everywhere. And of course, a lot of very bitterly poor people too, which led to revoution.
So fast-forward to the Soviet collapse. There they were, having abruptly lost their supplies of petrol products, technological imports of all kinds, and most importantly their food imports. I think that's the very picture of post-peak -- extreme shortages on everything. People will drive the same cars for forty years because there won't be any new cars to be had. People will grow food on every spare city rooftop and patch of soil, simply because they have to.
We could learn a lot from Cuba about how society can remain stable and survive mass shortages on literally every consumer and industrial product. You seem to doubt this, but they have survived haven't they? No die-off from starvation occurred. They've become ingenious mechanics, keeping those 1950's American cars running. And even with extreme shortages of medical supplies and tech, their life expectancy is very close to our own (proof of just how toxic the first world diet and consumer products are).
Bear in mind I'm not talking about their politics here, I'm just interested in how their society survived those very long-term shortages.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd what happens to immigration? In the third world, people will starve in place without trying to get to safer havens? How aggressively will the US reject its motto "give me your poor, your huddled masses" and beat back refugees?
In general, starving refugees aren't in any kind of condition to "fight" their way into our country, steal our food, steal our homes, steal our land and then somehow raise a crop on it. It's actually not too difficult for a government to keep refugees from streaming over the border. The DR has kept the Haitians out, and the countries surrounding Ruwanda kept those refugees out. The only reason we allow this now is because the elites of both political parties are complicit in it -- the dems want the votes, and the repub fat cat businessmen want the cheap labor.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')Americans aren't going to face a die-off
I think they are. It just may not be you or me who face that future, but the next generation or two will.
I don't agree, even a couple generations out. Fact is, we're not really overpopulated in this country. Our population is somewhere around 310 million. Now compare that to a place like Indonesia, where they have 228 million living on much less land. It was just a few years ago that we ceased being a net exporter of food, but we all know that's because of globalism and nonsense like corn ethanol.
If we had to, most of us could easily eat half as much as we do now, and we'd actually be far healthier for it. If we had to, we could start eating that corn stop using it for ethanol. And if we had to, I don't see why we couldn't grow half our food right in our own local communities -- if Cuba does it, there's no technical reason why can't as well.
Remember Mos, lack of food has a lot to do with globalization. Haitians go hungry because multinational Big Ag imports food at cost, driving local farmers out of business. Then when everyone is dependent on the food imports, they raise the prices. So if there's no globalism to screw over the local economy, then people will get out there and farm.
As for climate change and water shortage, it will be difficult for sure but still won't cause mass die-off in the US. Die-off will happen in other parts of the world for sure, but just on the numbers I don't see it happening in North America.
by mos6507 » Sat 13 Mar 2010, 16:11:54
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')I dunno Mos, I really think Cuba is one of the best examples of what post-peak living might be like.
It is, but that isn't saying much. The level of oil shortages experienced in Cuba would be exceeded relatively quickly in a world with steady YOY 6% declines. Cuba was also isolated but not entirely. So I am very concerned with diminishing returns.
I wish I had the link handy that dug deeper into Cuba's special period, but seriously, there was more going on there than Power of Community lets on, similar to how the story of the EV-1 was not as black and white as Who Killed the Electric Car portrays.
Power of Community is a meme. It is not really the full story. People should not construct their whole vision of the future based on that.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')In general, starving refugees aren't in any kind of condition to "fight" their way into our country
Did the starving Irish "fight" their way into the US? Do the mexicans "fight" their way into the US?
The idea that people will wait until they have distended bellies like Ethiopians before they emigrate thousands of miles to raid doomstead gardens is silly. That's not how it works. People go where they feel they have better opportunities. They go while the getting is good.
In a more gradual decline, you will see more immigration because fewer people will be caught off-guard. They will get the warning signs of slowly grinding food inflation and shortages and will have more time to consider greener pastures before they are trapped.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')It's actually not too difficult for a government to keep refugees from streaming over the border.
But do we have the will? Both parties are doing their best to push amnesty programs. When do you think we might see a change of heart there? After the US population goes through another doubling? Then how will that change your carrying capacity math?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')we're not really overpopulated in this country.
by mos6507 » Sat 13 Mar 2010, 16:17:53
Here is what is going on in Cuba TODAY.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
Food production in Havana province is 40 per cent below target this year, causing shortages in the Cuban capital despite reforms under President Raul Castro, official media said on Wednesday.
...
"Cooperatives and farmers did not receive
fertilizer and the
chemicals needed to protect their crops during the last four months of 2009," Granma said, adding that other factors such as the late arrival of
imported seed added to the crisis.
Where is all this permaculture???
If you read his slanted article, everything is hunky dory.
http://www.sfbayview.com/2010/havana-ha ... re-in-cuba’s-capital/
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
farming in Havana works. It fills an important social need and has government and social support. By Cuban standards it is well paid. It’s a place where workers have collective control over their work, influenced by consumer demand, community needs and government direction. And it’s not opposed by developers or corporations who want to make a profit from the land.
What Cuba can teach us about changing from gigantic
pesticide- and
fertilizer-heavy monoculture to urban agriculture and sustainable farming points the way to sustainability for people all over the world
So what's going on here? Either the organic farming doesn't come close to feeding the country or they just aren't doing it right.
But you can see right here that there is an endless cavalcade of bloggers and journalists who like to write puff pieces about Cuba that ignore their continued stubborn reliance on Green Revolution agriculture.
by Sixstrings » Sat 13 Mar 2010, 17:13:41
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '[')b]I wish I had the link handy that dug deeper into Cuba's special period, but seriously, there was more going on there than Power of Community lets on, similar to how the story of the EV-1 was not as black and white as Who Killed the Electric Car portrays.
Power of Community is a meme. It is not really the full story. People should not construct their whole vision of the future based on that.
I looked up the special period on Wikipedia, and it sure reads like a post-peak collapse scenario:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he collapse of the Soviet Union decimated the Cuban economy.
The country lost approximately 80% of its imports, 80% of its exports and its Gross Domestic Product dropped by 34 percent. Food and medicine imports stopped or severely slowed. Perhaps most immediately impactful, however, was the loss of nearly all of the oil imports by the USSR;
Cuba's oil imports dropped to 10% of pre-1990 amounts.
The effect was felt immediately. Entirely dependent on fossil fuels to operate, the major underpinnings of Cuban society—its transportation, industrial and agricultural systems—were paralyzed. There were extensive losses of productivity in both Cuban agriculture — which was dominated by modern industrial tractors, combines, and harvesters, all of which required oil to run — and in Cuban industrial capacity.
The early stages of the Special Period were defined by a general breakdown in transportation and agricultural sectors, fertilizer and pesticide stocks (both of those being manufactured primarily from oil derivatives), and widespread food shortages. Australian and other permaculturists arriving in Cuba at the time began to distribute aid and taught their techniques to locals, who soon implemented them in Cuban fields, raised beds, and urban rooftops across the nation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Period I know that during this period, they did achieve 50% food self-sufficiency. That really is impressive, considering it was done with organic gardening, and most of this food was produced right there in the province that includes Havana.
On the other hand, the article you just posted also reads like a post-peak scenario.. their produce is down 40% because of lack of farming supplies and seeds (and of course, the communist grip of farming regulation). But I suspect that their production has slacked off really because the crisis has been over for years now. They're no longer dependent on Russia, and have long since made other trading partners.
The point remains that when push came to shove, the Cubans did manage to feed themselves rather than starve. And even if the production is currently down, it's still impressive that they're producing so much locally. The lesson of Havana farming is that even a place like NYC technically could produce much more food than we currently assume. The human power of 8 million people can go farther than you may imagine, and don't forget the nature of farming has always been that one man can grow more food than he can eat.
Where Cuba goes wrong, and a place like North Korea goes very wrong, is with repressive and anti-productive communist top-down regulation. All government really needs to do in a shortage crisis is provide basic small-scale farming support, but otherwise let the individual free market loose. We did some of this in our own country during WWII with the victory gardens.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat numbers? Haven't you read the same articles I have that predict the breadbasket of the US to shift north into canada? What do you think's gonna happen to the southwest? They are going to tap the great lakes to irrigate southern california? These are serious problems looming on the horizon, not to be so quickly dismissed.
Ok you got me Mos, I didn't have any numbers it was just a figure of speech.
Another point you could have made is that most our population is concentrated along the coast, so we're not exactly evenly spread out over this continent. But still, we do have a lot of land to make use of. In a post-peak crisis if all our metro areas got serious with urban organic gardening we really could buy ourselves a lot of time. For a few years anyway, Havana was producing half its food right there, and even if that's all they had it would have been enough to stave off starvation.
And after I make all these points, this is when you come back with "it won't work cuz of climate change." But we have to take one problem at a time, Mos. All possible future calamities will not happen at the same time. Before our coastal cities become uninhabitable, I think the first challenge will be dealing with the breakdown of our supply chains. This challenge of post-peak shortage may last a decade or two, and feeding ourselves will take priority over future climate disaster.
One last thing on Cuba, a good blog to read is Generation Y. The author has won journalism awards, though the Cuban government won't allow her to leave the country to accept them. It's a really good read, a peak into what life would be like in a totally different society. And the blog is illuminating if you're interested in how life with shortages would be, and how communism ultimately does not work.
I remember in one blog she talks about the special period, how they had no meat and made terrible tasting "steaks" out of banana peels. Not pleasant for sure, but she didn't starve.
Here's the blog link:
http://www.desdecuba.com/generationy/
by TheDude » Mon 15 Mar 2010, 22:32:50
Ibon -
Thank you very much for sharing your experiences with us at last; a single post like yours is worth more than a terabyte of uninformed speculation.
I translated your Spanish, too:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')I said to my cuban agent, Jose, porque las mujeres limpiando la calle son tan bonitas aqui en Concepcion? I said to my cuban agent, Jose, because the women cleaning the streets are so beautiful here in Concepcion? Bueno, es porque ellas estaban trabajando antes en Havanna como prostitutas y fueron secuestrado por el gobierno y mandaron aqui por un ano como castigo y para reabilitarlas. Well, it's because they were working before in Havanna as prostitutes and were kidnapped by the government and sent here by a year as punishment and rehabilitated. Son menor de edad. Are minor.
What you say about how we will cope in the developed world to circumstances of declining available energy rings true to me, for what that's worth. Promises of an overnight shift to some ideological Platonic form are so silly.
I linked here in some other thread to an Al-Jazeera doc on a Cuban attempting to build a boat to escape, it was very interesting viewing. He eventually succeeded but it was a lot of waiting for a factory to covertly sell him bolts and wing nuts, covering the hull up with fronds, etc. More like Stalag 17 than the Power of Community.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
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